Daily Fantasy Week 6: Shootouts and Defensive Struggles

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Hi Daily Fantasy Veterans and Rookies,

 What a week it was.  Peyton Manning reached 500 touchdown passes, his partner Demaryius Thomas had over 200 yards receiving and two touchdowns.  SamENole had these two studs in his lineup and they help him take home the $1,000,000 first place prize money.  WAY TO GO SAM!!!!  Hopefully you had both these studs in your lineups too, but since this is Daily Fantasy, our teams that took us into the money are no more and we once again, will be building our team from the ground up.  

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To help you set the optimal team, each week we look for those games that the odds makers in Vegas see as high scoring affairs, which means a lot of fantasy points should be racked up, and which should be low scoring games where the points will be hard to come by. 

To check out the first article of this series for a complete description of the strategy: CLICK HERE

Our bye week teams are the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints.  This of course will take Drew Brees and his receivers off the table, and Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis and Travis Kelce, will not have to be considered.

Here we go: Looking at Week Six, there are two teams that are over our 50 point threshold. 

Over/Under with Positive Impact on Value: TARGET PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK

For our negative games we normally look for games under 42 points.  This week there are none that low, so we stretched our parameters slightly to 43 points and below.

Over/Under with Negative Impact on Value: AVOID PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK

Basic strategy with the above information is to look for studs and lower priced value in the “POSITIVE” games and look to avoid most but not all of the players in the “NEGATIVE” games. 

Now with our tools (FFC Strength of Schedule, FF Champs Defense Stats Allowed , The FFCPI and the FFC Daily Fantasy Rank Tool) primed and ready to go, we can now review our target games and make some decisions and look for value:

POSITIVE GAMES:

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons:

Atlanta’s defense remains suspect, ranked 24^th against the pass and 28^th against the run.  At the same time Chicago’s offense is in the middle of the pack.  The Bears should be able to pad their numbers against the week Falcons’ defense.

What this means for the Bears is easy to see: With a 22 FFPG, Jay Cutler is very much an option at a reasonable $8,000; Forte at $8,800 is expensive, but after getting his first TD last week and against an extremely weak vs RBs Falcons’ defense he is too good to pass up.  Build your team around this stud. 

The Bears receivers are all nicely priced with Brandon Marshall at $6,300 (but keep your eye on the injury report) and Alshon Jeffrey at $6,500.  A Cutler/Marshall or Jeffrey stack could prove a solid strategy.  While Matellus Bennett is not totally overpriced at $5,500, Atlanta is solid against TEs, so better options than Bennett should be out there. 

With Atlanta, they are at home and that makes a huge difference for this team.  In two games at home, the Falcons have put up 93 points!  Overall they are ranked second in the passing game and against the Bears 11^th worst passing defense against WRs, both Julio Jones and Roddy White provide good options.  Julio will require a commitment at $8,400, while Roddy is inexpensive at $4,800.  Devin Hester is a somewhat sneaky play (see the Tampa Bay game in week 2), but his $4,500 might be bit too high to qualify for a truly sneaky play.  At $4,500 he needs to put up some points.

The Bears are middle of the road against the run but with Atlanta’s crowded backfield it’s difficult to know who gets the points.  With their prices though, there is some potential value with Steve Jackson at $4,100 and Antone Smith at $3,400.  Both of these backs could get you 12-15 points and could be viable Flex options. 

Matt Ryan is pricey at $8,600, but he has proven his worth at home in the dome with a total of 60 fantasy points in two games.  If you stack Ryan and Jones, it will cost you $17,000 (or about a third of your budget), it’s a costly play, but if they both have the day one can expect, it could set you up for a high finish in the Millionaire Maker Contest.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles:

“The Battle of I-95” heats up as this NFC East rivalry heads into Philly for a Sunday Night Game with both teams playing well and putting up points on the board. 

With both the Eagles and the Giants susceptible to the pass (Ealges – 29^th & Giants – 25^th), both Eli Manning ($7,800) and Nick Foles ($6,800) are viable options this week.  Both Quarterbacks should be throwing the ball early and often and should put up 20+ fantasy point days, with the potential for really big performances. 

The Giant defense is number one against TEs so keep Ertz on the bench this week.  However they are 31^st against RBs in the receiving game, so both Darren Sproles and LeSean McCoy ($5,600 & $6,000, respectively) become nice value plays, and are actually going at a bit of a discount. 

Sproles gets some extra value with his presence on the punt return team.  This year the Giants have already allowed one punt return for a touchdown (Ted Ginn of AZ – Week 2) and allowed three last year.  Sproles could break another one.  Something wild always seems to happen in Giants/Eagles games.

 At WR for the Eagles, Jeremy Maclin at $6,800 should light it up, and after a sub-par performance last week, Jordon Matthews has dropped down to $3,700 and is a good Flex play. 

On the Giants’ side of the ball, Andre Williams will be the starting running back and has shown he can carry the ball.  The Eagles are way down the list against the Run (#24), and will be hard put to stop the power running of Williams.  At $5,400, in a potential monster shootout, Williams is a solid value for the RB2 slot. 

Victor Cruz is an ok value at $5,800, but the best value could be Rueben Randle at $4,600.  Last week he only had 4 catches for 33 and a touchdown, but he had 10 targets.  Randle is becoming one of Eli’s favorite targets and with a couple more catches versus the Eagles, it is very possible that Randle puts up a 20 point day. 

Larry Donnell was all the talk for 4 weeks and was shutout in week 5.  I think this is great, as his price has dropped to $3,500!!  This is a great value, the Eagles are only middle-of-the-road versus the TE, and it’s easy to see Eli going back to Donnell and him putting up a very solid fantasy day, especially at only $3,500. 

This matchup, between two teams that should put a ton of points on the board, has a couple of excellent, relatively inexpensive, stacking opportunities:  Foles and Maclin (cost you $13,600 total) and Eli and either Randle (total cost $12,400) or Donnell (total cost $11,300).  The Eli stacks are a bit riskier as it is a bit hard to determine who will get the TDs, but they are inexpensive enough to take a shot.

Before moving onto the “negative games”, there are two games, that while they don’t reach our threshold, should provide many point producing players:  the Denver Broncos @ NY Jets (47 ½) and the Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins (49).  The names are well known and this week they should not be ignored, they include:  P. Manning, D. Thomas, J. Thomas, E. Sanders, A. Rodgers, J. Nelson, R. Cobb, E. Lacy, and even L. Miller and R. Tannehill, with their lower prices could be useful. 

Now, on to the games to avoid:

NEGATIVE GAMES: (Remember, a negative game does not mean that all players will stink and not put up fantasy numbers, it just means that there is generally better value to be had elsewhere)

Baltimore Ravens/Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

The Ravens are ranked 8^th against the run, so keep Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey on the bench even with their relatively low prices ($4,400 and $4,700, respectively), especially with Tampa Bay cranking up their passing game with Mike Glennon under center.   I don’t mind Glennon at $5,900 if you want to go cheap QB route, and Vincent Jackson at $5,700 also seems ok, especially with Glennon seeming to look for him.

For Baltimore, forget their backfield, it is a three-headed monster and not worth the risk of just 5 points if you pick wrong.  Flacco isn’t worth the risk either.  If you absolutely have to start one of the Ravens, Steve Smith, Sr. is about your best shot, but his price tag is high at $6,200.  And Owen Daniels at $4,300 is not the best option at TE.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders:

Just like last week, the Chargers are in a “negative game”, but it is not because of them, it is because of their opponents.  The Chargers shut out the NY Jets last week, Oakland isn’t any better.

DO NOT PLAY ANY RAIDERS!!!! ‘nuff said.

I would play a few Chargers players, including their D/ST (put up 16 fantasy points last week).  The Chargers D/ST is $3,400, a bit pricey for a defense, but if they can repeat their week 5 performance it is good value.  And I would start Philip Rivers, even at $8,200, he is your go to guy.  He is averaging 22 FFPG and is solid value. 

Rivers’ receivers are a mixed lot: Antonio Gates at $6,100, Keenan Allen at $5,800, Eddie Royal at $5,500 and Malcolm Floyd (nursing an injury) at $4,300.  With their prices and not quite knowing who is going to get the majority of Rivers’ attention, I am avoiding them this week. 

OK, I know you are all talking about Branden Oliver.  At $5,500, he might not be a bad play.  He ran well against the tough NY Jets run defense and he was involved in the passing attack.  As is the nature of these “negative games”, the reason I am a bit hesitant on Oliver is that there may not be that many points for Oliver to share in.  If he fits into your budget without scrimping elsewhere, then taking a flyer on him might not be a bad play.  However, realize that there are other options at this price point that might be better options:  Andre Williams ($5,400), Andre Ellington ($5,100), Darren Sproles ($5,600) and perhaps even Ben Tate ($5,500).  But as Marc Twain says, “You pays your money and takes your choice”.

Well, that is it for this week, remember to do your research, look for more daily fantasy articles in the upcoming days, and good luck in big, huge, life changing Millionaire Maker Daily Fantasy Contest.  Remember $27 could change your life…that’s all it takes, one $27 entry and by around 1130pm on Monday, you could be a MILLIIONAIRE!!!

If you have any questions, comments or just want to talk fantasy, hit me up on Twitter or Facebook, you can use the links below to get in touch.

Good luck this weekend!!!

Beaudog

Woof!!