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Showing posts with label Full. Show all posts
Saturday, 23 August 2014
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Big Ten Breakdown: Ohio State Buckeyes Full Preview

Urban Meyer has been the head coach of the Ohio State Buckeyes for two years, during which he's compiled a 24-2 record, had two undefeated regular seasons, not to mention two wins over Michigan. However, he has yet to win a Big Ten title, a national championship or a BCS Bowl. It is true that 2012 was limited by sanctions, including a bowl ban, but that doesn't change the facts.

Heading into year three, the Buckeyes were the favorites to win their division and the conference. Then the bottom fell out. Ohio State's quarterback, two-time Silver Football winner and a contender for the Heisman, Braxton Miller, injured his right shoulder, taking him out for the season.

Meyer, a two-time national championship-winning head coach at Florida, will have a much tougher path to a conference or a national championship than he had at the beginning of August, but with the stockpile of talent in Columbus, it isn't out of the question.

 

Offensive Overview

2013 scoring offense: 45.5 PPG (first in the conference), total offense: 511.9 YPG (first), rushing YPC: 6.80 (first), passing efficiency: 158.83 (first)

Average scoring offense conference ranking over last five years: 3.2

Best scoring offense conference ranking over last five years: First (2012, 2013)

Worst scoring offense conference ranking over last five years: Eighth (2011)

Returning starters: WRs Devin Smith, Evan Spencer; TE Jeff Heuerman; OL Taylor Decker

Open Positions: QB, RB, OL

Offensive Formation: Spread

Offensive Philosophy: Get playmakers in space

 

Offensive Breakdown

Urban Meyer runs a strictly spread offense—no under-center looks, even in goalline situations—that focuses on versatile skill position players, most especially a dual-threat quarterback. Offensively, he has taken the Big Ten by storm, finishing at the top of the conference in scoring in both 2012 and 2013, but that was with six and nine returning starters. This year, he not only has to replace almost his entire offensive line and running back, but he has to replace his now-injured all-conference quarterback. This year might be his greatest accomplishment if he can produce a crew that can score over 30 PPG.

 

Offensive Outlook

For the past six months, you'd be hard pressed to find a publication, on-line or in print, that didn't have Braxton Miller as its first-team all-conference quarterback. Now, he's out for the year, and it looks like redshirt freshman and former Rivals 4-star recruit, J.T. Barrett, will take the snaps. He is a prototypical Meyer quarterback, though considerably smaller than Miller or former Florida quarterback Tim Tebow. If Barrett doesn't pan out, sophomore Cardale Jones will have a shot. Jones played in three garbage-time situaitons last year.

With Miller out, OSU also loses the fourth of its top-four ball carriers from 2013, but it being OSU, there is plenty of talent on the roster. The probable top ball carrier is sophomore Ezekiel Elliot, who picked up 262 yards and two touchdowns last season, mostly in garbage time. He will be spelled by senior Rod Smith, junior Bri'onte Dunn and sophomore Warren Ball.

As with the running backs, despite losing their top receiver, the Buckeyes are loaded. 2013 Juco-commit, Corey Smith, will start, while senior Devin Smith will be the other starter. Last year, Smith had 44 receptions for 660 yards and eight touchdowns. Senior Evan Spencer (22 receptions for 216 yards) will provide depth. The rest of the receiving corps is largely untested. Sophomore Dontre Wilson, who came to OSU as a running back, is the starting H-back after catching 22 last year. Senior Jeff Heuerman returns at tight end. In 2013, he had 26 catches for 466 and four touchdowns. With an average of 17.92 YPC, he led all Buckeyes by over two YPC in stretching the field. Junior Nick Vannett will back him up.

The offensive line is a work-in-progress and, according to Phil Steele, is the second-least experienced in the conference and third-least experienced in the country. The only returning starter is junior left tackle Taylor Decker. The good news is that there is experience, at least within the program, amongst this group. The current starting lineup lists two seniors, two juniors and one sophomore as starters. The two-deep has three seniors, four juniors, one sophomore and two freshmen. The situation would look considerably more worrisome if it was mostly underclassmen.

In seven years of coaching between Florida and Ohio State, Urban Meyer's worst offenses were his first two seasons at Florida, in which his Gators scored 28.58 PPG and 29.71 PPG, respectively. It only once (2005) didn't finish as one of the top two scoring offenses in the conference. Before Miller's injury, the offensive line was an issue, but it was hard to see this offense finish any worse than second in the conference. After the injury, one has to expect a drop off, but it also won't fall apart. Top offense? No. Top three? Maybe. Top five and at least 30 PPG? Definitely.

 

Defensive Overview 

2013 scoring defense: 22.6 PPG (fifth in conference), total defense: 377.4 YPG (seventh), rushing YPC allowed: 3.29 (third), passing efficiency allowed: 133.99 (ninth)

Average scoring defense conference ranking over last five years: 4.0

Best scoring defense conference ranking over last five years: First (2010)

Worst scoring defense conference ranking over last five years: Sixth (2011, 2012)

Returning starters: DEs Noah Spence, Joey Bosa; DTs Adolphus Washington, Michael Bennett; LBs Joshua Perry, Curtis Grant; CB Doran Grant

Open positions: LB, CB, S

Defensive formation: 4-3 with a stand-up defensive end

Defensive philosophy: Attack

 

Defensive Breakdown

Even though Meyer is known for offense, he has fielded elite defenses. Three of his five Gators defenses were amongst the top two scoring defenses in the conference and top 10 in the country. However, his two Buckeyes defenses have been above-average at best. This led to a slight coaching shakeup in the offseason. Meyer hired a new co-defensive coordinator in Chris Ash and a new defensive line coach in former-Penn State coach Larry Johnson Sr.

Meyer's defenses are aggressive and focused on attacking, which makes them the antithesis of former OSU coach Jim Tressel's very successful, albeit conservative, defenses. Thus, perhaps the transition has played a part in the Buckeyes' lackluster performances. It hasn't been a lack of talent, as OSU has sent five defensive players into the NFL Draft in the last two years, two in the first round. That is three more than Michigan State, the conference's best defense two years running, has put into the Draft in the same time.

Whatever the issue, given the offense's woes, if Ohio State is to win the conference, the defense will have to lead the way.

 

Defensive Outlook

Man-for-man, the Buckeyes have one of the best, if not the best defensive line in the country. It begins with junior defensive end Noah Spence and sophomore end Joey Bosa. Last year, the two combined for 15 sacks and 27.5 tackles-for-loss. Spence, however, will sit out the first two games of the season due to a currently-contested rules violation from last year. That will likely put senior Steve Miller or sophomore Tyquan Lewis as the stand-up defensive end, at least for the first couple of games. The inside is loaded with senior Michael Bennett at nose tackle, while juniors Tommy Schutt and Adolphus Washington share snaps at defensive tackle. Schutt was slated to start last year, but missed much of the season with an injury.

At linebacker, OSU loses Ryan Shazier—15th pick in the NFL Draft—but have a strong group of starters. Senior Curtis Grant is a former No. 1 at-any-position recruit (per Rivals) who has never lived up to his billing. He missed time last season with injuries, but will have a chance to finish his career on an up-note. Junior Joshua Perry is the most steady of the Buckeyes' linebackers; he will man the weak side. A number of players are competing for time on the strong side. The most likely candidate to win the job is sophomore Darron Lee; nevertheless, redshirt freshman Chris Worley and sophomore Trey Johnson will push him. True freshman Raekwon McMillan will also supply depth. There are questions about this unit, but there is also plenty of talent.

OSU's biggest question is its secondary, where it has to replace three starters. However, last year, despite the talent, Ohio State had problems defending the pass. Specifically, the Buckeyes let up the most passing plays of 10-yards-or-more in the conference. Senior Doran Grant will lead the way at one cornerback. He is a three-year starter who had three picks last year. Junior Armani Reeves will likely hold down the other spot. He picked up three starts last year. Sophomores Tyvis Powell and Vonn Bell will take over as safeties; both played nickelback last year. The depth, though talented, is largely untested.

The talent is there, but the talent is always plentiful in Columbus.. At worst, this defense will be a top-five-in-the-conference crew, but in order for OSU to win the Big Ten, it will have to do more than that. It will have to be an elite defense, ranking amongst the top 10 in the country.

 

Specialists

Sophomore Cameron Johnston will return as the punter. Last year, his 44 YPP led the Big Ten. The Buckeyes will have to replace kicker Drew Basil. True freshman Sean Nuernberger will win the job.

The Buckeyes top kick returner, Dontre Wilson, returns. He averaged 24.90 YPR in 2013. Wilson will have an opportunity to take over punt returns, as OSU's top return man graduated.

Meyer, a former special teams coach, places emphasis on his special teams. This group could be one of the three best in the conference if Nuernberger is dependable.

 

Schedule

A pound sign—#—indicates must-win for Ohio State.

An exclamation point—!—indicates a probable loss.

A dollar sign—$—indicates a swing game.

08/30: Navy (in Baltimore) #
09/06: Virginia Tech $
09/13: Kent State #
09/20: Open
09/27: Cincinnati #
10/04: at Maryland $
10/11: Open
10/18: Rutgers #
10/25: at Penn State $
11/01: Illinois #
11/08: at Michigan State $
11/15: at Minnesota $
11/22: Indiana #
11/28: Michigan $

 

Best-Case Scenario

The defense announces itself immediately, shutting down Navy's triple option and Virginia Tech's zone read. The offense isn't what it was last year, but with a much stronger defense, it doesn't have to be. 

The Buckeyes go 4-0 in the out-of-conference (OOC) and shut down their first four conference opponents. At 8-0, they head into East Lansing and win a defensive slugfest. Two more wins and Michigan heads into Columbus. Ohio State wins another defensive fight, and at 12-0, head to the Big Ten Championship game for the second year in a row.

 

Worst-Case Scenario

Despite the star power, the defense can't bring it all together. The offense, while solid, is not spectacular.

OSU beats Navy, but has to leave the starters in the whole game. It loses to Virginia Tech, and then sweeps the other OOC games. Then the unthinkable happens—the Buckeyes lose to Maryland. They beat Rutgers, but turnovers cost them at Penn State. After winning the Illibuck, Michigan State's blitz heavy defense proves too much for the young quarterback. Ohio State wins two more, before dropping a heartbreaker to Michigan. OSU ends the season 8-4, but almost the entire team, including Braxton Miller, returns in 2015.

 

Prediction

Unfortunately for Buckeyes fans, this team is made for Tresselball— potentially strong defense, close games, control the clock. But ultra-aggressive Urban Meyer doesn't play Tresselball, and the last thing any coach or program wants to do is go against its basic nature. In order to be successful, Urban Meyer needs to be Urban Meyer, and until he demonstrates otherwise, it's hard to believe the defense can do what it will have to do in order for OSU to win the division and conference.

The Buckeyes will go 3-1 in the OOC, with the inexperienced offense getting overwhelmed by Virginia Tech's secondary—possibly the best in the country this year. It will win four straight in conference, but MSU's defensive physicality will prove too much. It will go on to win the rest of its schedule, including another nailbiter against Michigan, but after year three in Columbus, Urban Meyer will still have failed to win a conference or national championship.

Final Record: 10-2 (7-1 in conference)

 

Be Sure to Check Out the Full Preview of the Wisconsin Badgers


Coming Later This Week: A Full Preview of the Iowa Hawkeyes

 






Thursday, 21 August 2014
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Big Ten Breakdown: Wisconsin Badgers Full Preview

Gary Andersen went 9-4 in his first year as the Badgers' head coach; by comparison, consider the year his predecessor had in Arkansas. However, with a good amount of talent, nine wins was something of an underachievement for last year's group. There was the Arizona State-debacle, which, unfortunately, took the game out of the players' hands, but UW also fell apart against Penn State with a shot at the Orange Bowl on the line.

This year, there isn't as much experienced talent on the team as last year, and the transition, especially on the defense, will be more palpable. But with a move to the Big Ten West, and a soft schedule, Wisconsin is the favorite to win its division and get to its third Big Ten Championship game in four years.

 

Offensive Overview

2013 scoring offense: 34.8 PPG (third in the conference), total offense: 480.8 YPG (third), rushing YPC: 6.62 (second), passing efficiency: 133.75 (sixth)

Average scoring offense conference ranking over last five years: 2.4

Best scoring offense conference ranking over last five years: First (2009, 2010, 2011)

Worst scoring offense conference ranking over last five years: Sixth (2012)

Returning starters: QB Joel Stave; RB Melvin Gordon; FB Derek Watt; WR Jordan Frederick; OL Dan Voltz, Kyle Costigan, Rob Havenstein, Tyler Marz, Dallas Lewallen

Open Positions: WR, TE

Offensive Formation: Power

Offensive Philosophy: Power rushing to wear defense down and control clock

 

Offensive Breakdown

It seems like Wisconsin has run the same offense forever, and it has worked forever. That offense is classic Big Ten football based on a massive offensive line, great running backs, and a quarterback who is more of a game manager than the focus of the offense. Andersen has made it clear he wants to remain true to the Badgers' roots, but he also wants to slowly augment those roots.

As Elliot Hughes from Isthmus.com reported, those augmentations include a mobile quarterback and more spread looks, as well as option and zone-read plays. However, those changes will take a few years and recruiting classes to implement. In effect, depending upon who wins the quarterback job, don't expect 2014 to be a far departure from classic Wisconsin power football.

 

Offensive Outlook

The quarterback will dictate how much the Badgers' offense will adjust. Junior Joel Stave is a two-year starter and a former walk-on. Despite his experience, he still has to battle for the starting position as Andy Baggot of Madison.com noted. Stave is a classic game manager in the Wisconsin-quarterback mold. He is immobile and probably doesn't have the talent to take over a game. Last year, he finished with a 138.13 efficiency rating and a 22:13 TD:Int ratio. It was a solid sophomore effort, but his inconsistency and inability to step up when needed was problematic. He threw three interceptions against Penn State which spelled the Badgers' doom and that loss was the likely difference between a trip to the Orange Bowl and the Cap One Bowl. Stave's competition comes from Tanner McEvoy, a junior who began his college career at South Carolina, transferred to a Juco, then transferred to Wisconsin. Even though he came to UW as a quarterback, he played safety last year; this spring saw a switch back to quarterback. Obviously, McEvoy is more in line with the athleticism Andersen wants in his quarterback.

At running back, it is another year and another potential All-American for Wisconsin. Junior Melvin Gordon will lead the way. In 2013, he had 1,609 yards, 7.81 YPC and 12 touchdowns. This year, the Heisman hype has already started. In Wisconsin's offense, there are plenty of touches to go around, and sophomore Corey Clement (547 yards, seven touchdowns) will get playing time. Taiwan Deal, a Rivals 4-star recruit, will have an opportunity to see the field as a true freshman. Derek Watt, who started at fullback last year, will play an expanded role this year, as the classic fullback role transitions into more of an H-back.

Receiver is wide open. The Badgers not only graduated their top four pass catchers, but they graduated Jared Abbrederis, a four-year starter, and UW's best receiver since Lee Evans. The returning wide receiver experience amounts to 64 career catches. The field of possible starters includes senior Kenzel Doe; junior Jordan Fredrick; sophomores Robert Wheelwright, Reggie Love, Alex Erickson; as well as all true freshmen. The Badgers also lost their top two tight ends, but UW tends to reload at tight end. The likely starter is senior Sam Arneson with junior Austin Traylor backing him up.

As with running back, it is no surprise that Wisconsin has probably the best offensive line in the conference. The Badgers return five players with starting experience. That said, depth is a concern, as the second string includes two sophomores and two freshmen.

The Badgers offense has a number of ifs. At worst, it will be a good offense that will bowl over weaker defenses, but will have trouble with better opponents. But if the offense can find consistency at quarterback, a playmaker or two at receiver, and can avoid the injury bug along the offensive line, it can be one of the best in the conference.

 

Defensive Overview 

2013 scoring defense: 16.3 PPG (second in conference), total defense: 305.1 YPG (third), rushing YPC allowed: 3.22 (second), passing efficiency allowed: 113.63 (third)

Average scoring defense conference ranking over last five years: 3.0

Best scoring defense conference ranking over last five years: Second (2012, 2013)

Worst scoring defense conference ranking over last five years: Fourth (2009, 2011)

Returning starters: CBs Darius Hillary, Sojourn Shelton; S Michael Caputo

Open positions: DE, NT, LB, S

Defensive formation: 3-4

Defensive philosophy: Control the line of scrimmage, attack

 

Defensive Breakdown

As with the offense, the defense has undergone and will continue to undergo transition; unlike the offense, the transition will not be gradual. Historically, UW has run a traditional, straightforward Big Ten 4-3 front. Last year, it moved to a 3-4 that thrived on unpredictability, and thrive it did. PPG-wise, Wisconsin had its best defense since 2006. The question is how much of that was due to the new scheme and how much of that was due to the players. Last year's team not only returned five of the front seven, but also put three players into the NFL Draft. The last time UW put three-or-more defensive players in the Draft was 2005. While UW has established a tradition of reloading at certain offensive positions, there is no place on the defense that has moved into the reloading realm.

This year, the defense only returns three, and at this point, it looks short on NFL talent.

 

Defensive Outlook

The line returns five starts, and for a 3-4, the starters are a bit undersized. The rush-side end will be manned by red-shirt freshman Chikwe Obasih. He has the most potential in the front, but he is still a freshman. The other end will be between junior Jake Keefer and senior Konrad Zagzebski. Keefer would have had a shot at playing time last season, but he sat out with a torn ACL. Senior Warren Herring will start at nose tackle. He has one start to his credit, but at a listed 293 pounds, is small for a nose tackle in a 3-4. All of the depth is young and/or unproven.

The linebackers not only lose all of the starters, but they lose Chris Borland, the heart and soul of the Badgers' defense for the past two years. Outside linebacker Vince Biegel, a sophomore, grabbed two starts last year and is the most talented of the group. Senior Marcus Trotter will start inside, and while he is limited, he is also dependable. The other inside spot will go to senior Derek Landisch, who picked up one start last year and has been a career special teams stalwort. The final starting spot will go to senior Joe Schobert. The starting four are solid, if unspectacular, but depth is an issue.

The back four are the most experienced unit on the field, despite losing safety Dezman Southward, who went in the third round of the Draft. This year, Caputo will move from free to strong, while both starting cornerbacks return. The free safety spot will probably go to a true freshman, with Rivals 2-star Austin Hudson and fellow 2-star Lubern Figaro the most likely candidates. The depth sufferred a substantial blow with the recent retirement of Vonte Jackson. However, senior Peniel Jean will compete for playing time as a nickelback or at safety.

The Badgers lose four of their top-five tacklers, five of their top-seven pass rushers, and all but two players who recorded an interception. Couple this with the transition to a 3-4, and it's hard to be optimistic about this defense. Thankfully, Wisconsin's clock-control offense has always been the defense's best ally, but expect a few steps back for the 2014 Badgers defense. The question is how many steps back?

 

Specialists

Junior Jack Russell is the incumbent place kicker. Last year, he made 9-of-13 field goal attempts. He will be challenged by true freshman Rafael Gaglianone. Fellow-junior Drew Meyer will remain the punter. He had a mediocre 2013, finishing with a 38.58 average. 

Meanwhile, Kenzel Doe was the second-best kick returner in the conference—26.45 average with one touchdown—and he will also handle punts.

The place kicker and Meyer will be counted on to improve, as a punter and kickoff unit are an inexperienced defense's best friend. If they do improve, Wisconsin will have some of the better special teams in the conference. If not, it will be mediocre.

 

Schedule

A pound sign—#—indicates must-win for Wisconsin.

An exclamation point—!—indicates a probable loss.

A dollar sign—$—indicates a swing game.

08/30: LSU (in Houston) $
09/06: Western Illinois #
09/13: Open
09/20: Bowling Green #
09/27: USF #
10/04: at Northwestern $
10/11: Illinois #
10/18: Open
10/25: Maryland $
11/01: at Rutgers #
11/08: at Purdue #
11/15: Nebraska $
11/22: at Iowa $
11/28: Minnesota $

 

Best-Case Scenario

Stave, or whomever is quarterback, is not Russell Wilson, but he is as efficient as former Badger quarterback Scott Tolzien. No huge playmakers come out of the receivering corps, but they do their job, and with Wisconsin's running game, the passing game only has to do so much. Meanwhile, the defense takes a small step back from last year, but is still formidable despite the turnover.

The Badgers scratch out a close win in Houston, automatically putting them into the playoff discussion. They beat every opponent going forward by at least ten points, and after securing the Axe for the 11th straight year, Wisconsin, at 12-0, writes a ticket for its third Big Ten Championship game in the four years of the game's existence. 

 

Worst-Case Scenario

Whoever wins the quarterback spot is inconsistent. This leads to a game of musical quarterbacks. Meanwhile, nobody steps up as a go-to receiver, the offensive line sees a slew of injuries and the defense isn't much more than adequate. 

Wisconsin gets stomped by LSU on national television. It rolls off three wins, but loses a close game to Northwestern. It then beats Illinois, but loses to Maryland before winning two straight. It has a chance to steal the Big Ten West crown but two losses in the final three weeks seals UW's fate with a 7-5, 4-4 conference record.

 

Prediction

Wisconsin has a ton of questions, but it has a 12th man in its corner—the schedule. After the opening contest against LSU, there isn't a challenge on UW's schedule until the Northwestern game, and some might argue there isn't a real challenge until mid-November, when the Badgers play Nebraska and Iowa in successive weeks. Regardless, the questions are substantial and the easiest schedule in the world won't erase them. That said, Wisconsin is the first Big Ten team in this series that has a legitimate shot at 12-0, but it's not going to happen.

Wisconsin will lose by at least two scores to LSU. It will blow away its next three out-of-conference opponents and it will win its first two conference games. However, it will get surprised on homecoming by a resurgent Maryland. It will then put up three wins, including a victory over Nebraska, before rolling into Iowa City for what amounts to the Big Ten West championship game. It will lose a heartbreaker, but will take home the Axe to finish the year. Not bad, given the amount of turnover on this year's squad.

Final Record: 9-3 (6-2 in conference)

 

Be Sure to Check Out the Full Preview of the Michigan Wolverines


Coming Next Week: A Full Preview of the Ohio State Buckeyes






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