Tom Brady and Drew Brees: Is The Old Guard Slowing Down?

Coming into the season, two of the more trendy picks to represent their respective conferences in the Super Bowl were the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints.  This was largely due to the reputation and ability of their quarterbacks, two of the finest of this generation to play the position.  Tom Brady and Drew Brees are widely considered among the three or four best quarterbacks in the NFL right now, as both were voted in the top ten by fellow players according to the NFL Network rankings along with Peyton Manning.  Both have won Super Bowl MVPs, made countless Pro Bowls and Brady has two regular season MVPs as well, while Brees has thrown for 5,000 yards an unprecedented four straight seasons.  Aaron Rodgers is the fourth quarterback often included in conversations about the best, but he is still in the prime of his career at age 30.  Brady, Brees and Manning have continued to produce well into their thirties, leading many to wonder how long they can keep it going. 

Quarterbacking legends of the past were clearly on the downside of their careers at comparable ages, but new rules are seemingly added every year to protect quarterbacks and help offenses, so the shelf-life of great quarterbacks is definitely on the rise.  But early in the 2014 season, Brady and Brees in particular have struggled to live up to the lofty expectations they have built for themselves with their exceptional play over the years.  While many of their team’s problems could be attributed to shaky defensive play and subpar supporting casts, it is reasonable to start wondering whether this is the season where Brady and Brees finally begin to show their age.  Manning is several years older than both, but he has reinvented himself to a degree in his twilight years in Denver as a precision passer with less reliance on his diminishing arm strength.  The Broncos have won consistently since he arrived and do not appear to be slowing down in 2014.  But Manning is also surrounded with dynamic weapons on offense while Brady and Brees are lacking the same surrounding skill position talent outside of their superstar tight ends. 

Since the sample size after four games is probably too small to judge each quarterback by their individual numbers, it would be more beneficial to look at the team outlooks for the remainder of the season.  Both the Patriots and Saints play in very winnable divisions, so a turnaround could potentially happen for both.  The Patriots have basically owned the AFC East since 2001, mainly due to the shoddy quarterback play in the rest of the division.  The exceptions would be 2002 when New England’s dynasty was in its infancy, and 2008, when Brady tore his ACL in Week 1 and Chad Pennington was the MVP runner-up for the surprising Miami Dolphins.  The lack of competition and quarterbacks in the division seems to be ongoing, as the Bills just benched E.J. Manuel for journeyman Kyle Orton, the Jets are close to doing the same with Geno Smith, and the Dolphins started a controversy of their own by refusing to name Ryan Tannehill as the starter before their Week 4 matchup.  So the Patriots should be safe to win the division again in 2014.  Success in the playoffs, however, is a different story. 

Since 2004, the Patriots have been average at best in the postseason.  Their record is 9-8 and Brady has not performed well in most of the elimination games.  Combine that with the fact that rookie second round draft pick Jimmy Garoppolo looked impressive in both the preseason and in relief on Monday, and the Patriots might be a Brady injury away from a new quarterback for the next decade.  It happened to Bledsoe, it happened to Montana, it happened to Manning, why not Brady?  While it is always easy to blame the quarterback for a team’s misfortunes, the Patriots have had numerous key injuries over the years that decimated Brady’s supporting cast.  Last year, numerous defensive players were lost early in the season, and Rob Gronkowski tore his ACL in December, so he was working with a patchwork group.  This season, the defense is healthy again and added Darrelle Revis, but the offensive line has been ravaged by injuries and ineffectiveness, which has clearly affected Brady.  New England coach Bill Belichick knows how much of his career success is tied to Brady, but he is not one for sentimentality.  He will put the players on the field that give him the best chance to win, so even Brady could become expendable in the near future.

The Saints on the other hand, are one game behind the Falcons and Panthers in the NFC South, and both have formidable quarterbacks that have had success in recent years.  The Bucs also showed substantial improvement this past week since Mike Glennon took over the starting job, so they cannot be counted out yet either.  Both divisions could possibly be won with only nine or ten victories, but that would hardly match the expectations for the Patriots and Saints before the season.  The Saints in particular, are not nearly the same team on the road that they are in the Superdome.  Although they did win a game at Philly last year, it was the first career playoff start for Nick Foles, so that is more likely the exception than the rule.  Perhaps more importantly, last season the Saints played great on defense in Rob Ryan’s first year as coordinator.  Thus far this season, they have yet to force a turnover and have been exposed in three of their four games.  Brees, however, is a deity in New Orleans.  For a city that had never won a playoff game until he arrived, he led them to a first round bye and home playoff win in his first season.  By his fourth, they were undefeated through December and won the first championship in New Orleans sports history, and he was named Super Bowl MVP.  And although his turnover rate has increased in recent years and his playoff performances have been spotty since 2009, he is less likely than Brady to be replaced anytime soon. 

While both Brady and Brees have begun a noticeable decline, neither can be written off quite yet.  As the young star quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton continue their rise into the elite category, they need to prove they can consistently beat the best.  Wilson has done that countless times now, but he is surrounded by arguably the most talented team in the NFL in Seattle.  Luck and Newton have shown flashes, but have not yet displayed the consistency required to reach the level of Brady and Brees.  All are almost equally required to provide otherworldly performances to lead their teams to victory, and often do.  Whereas quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler have superstar receivers and other weapons to lean on which takes the pressure off. 

Brady in particular, has been left with a pretty bare cupboard the last few years, as Randy Moss and Wes Welker have been traded or signed elsewhere and their replacements have not produced at the same levels.  Brees had the same receivers for many years in New Orleans and made it work, and now he has Jimmy Graham and 2014 first round pick Brandin Cooks at his disposal, so at least the Saints are trying to maintain their offensive explosiveness unlike the Pats.  I don’t see Brees’ numbers falling off anytime soon in Sean Payton’s offense, but a couple of losing seasons could mean the end of the road for Payton and the aging Brees.  And if the defense does not improve, that could happen by the end of 2015.  Football is a results business, and it would not shock me to see both Tom Brady and Drew Brees in different uniforms before their careers are over.