DraftKings Week 9 Strategy: Expert Lineup Analysis
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Week 9 Draft Kings X’s & O’s: A Strategy Discussion Of Who To Put In Your Lineup
To quote Dan from last week: “Let the mind games begin…..buhahahahahaha”. Well, I responded with my own “Muh hahahahahaha” and with the help of a 46 point week from Jeremy Maclin was able to put a 30 point smack down on my buddy, Dan. Dan still holds a 4-3 edge over me in our year-long H2H matchups, but I hope to even things up this week. Good luck this week Dan.
Dan Responds: This is what happens in Dan’s world. I get cocky, and get smacked down by my own ego. Back to the drawing board this week to scheme up a victory. Nice win Nick!!
Allow us to take a quick moment to congratulate Leav11 on becoming Draft Kinga’ newest Millionaire, his lineup racked up an amazing 293 points, it was that kind of week, and to remind you that again this week, you have a chance to win $1,000,000 in this week’s Millionaire Maker Contest. That’s right, again this week you can turn $27 into a cool $1,000,000 in cold, hard cash. (And second place isn’t so bad at $100,000 with 15,500 people overall getting paid).
If you do not already have a Draft Kings account you can even get into this huge contest for FREE! All you have to do is go to www.FFChamps.com/million. Once you register and make a small $25 deposit into your new account, you will be given a FREE $27 entry into this week’s Millionaire Maker Contest and a Free membership to FFChamps (a $59.95 value). So for only $25, you are getting over $100 of value including a FREE chance at a Million Bucks!
Once you have signed up, come back here and take a look at Dan & my advice and thoughts on whom to put into your lineup.
As a reminder, FFCHAMPS.Com has a great tool you can use to help set up your Daily Fantasy Line Up: Just Click Here to take a quick look at the FFChamps Daily Fantasy Ranks tool. Just remember to come back and finish reading our article.
OK, back to the business at hand.
As we do every week, Dan and I will take a look at the match-ups, the player performance, the Draft Kings’ pricing and the Daily Fantasy Rank Tool, of course, to suggest players we think will give you an edge as you put your Draft Kings Roster together and hopefully help you put together that perfect GPP lineup that can take you all the way to this week’s One Million Dollar top prize, or if you prefer an excellent 50/50 lineup that can help you build up your bankroll.
Before we start, just as a reminder, while we may not highlight the Major Studs at each position, these players, like Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Andrew Luck, Demarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Matt Forte, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell will be an integral part of your lineups. Our goal here is to also spotlight some of medium, and even, lower priced players who can nicely fill out your lineup. Thus allowing you to have that perfect combination of Studs and Value players to reach the money and ultimately take down first place.
So, while Dan and I will not specifically recommend many of these Studs in our discussion below, there are no reasons not to target them for your lineup. In fact, this week, Tom Brady at $8,400, Dez Bryant at $8,200, Emmanuel Sanders at $8,000, Demaryius Thomas at $9,000 and even Rob Gronkowski at $7,600 provide excellent options and you should seriously consider at least a couple of them as the core of your lineup this week. Just realize that if/when you do, you will have to work hard to find good value (i.e. low price/high production) in the other roster slots.
That is what we are here for!
Remember we have six teams on bye this week (Packers, Titans, Lions, Bills, Bears and Falcons) so many major studs are not available to us this week including: Aaron Rodgers, Jordy, Cobb, Julio Jones, Matt Forte, Golden Tate, Marshall and Jeffrey, Bennett and Sammy Watkins to name many of them. Because of the pricing this week at Draft Kings many of the lower priced players we have been able to use successfully in the past have higher prices, so we will have to dig deeper to find that right mix of players.
So with this in mind, here we go!
Colin Kaepernick ($7,000): Kaepernick ripped the Rams in week six to the tune of 32.4 fantasy points based on 22 of 35 for 343 yards and 3 TD, with an extra 37 rushing yards on 3 carries. That game was in St. Louis, at Home this week and coming off a buy with plenty of time to game plan, a similar performance should be on the books. He might not reach 30 points again but between his passing and running, 25 points is a distinct possibility and at only $7,000 his price will allow for picking up a player like Julius Thomas or even Gronkowski, on one of the higher priced WRs, like D. Thomas or A. Brown.
DAN’S CHALKBOARD: I can’t argue with his performance in the first game against the Rams, although they were playing catchup after getting behind early in the last game. That most likely won’t be the case this week, but I still like him to put up good to great numbers.
Joe Flacco ($6,100): Yes, I will admit that this week I am “Whacko for Flacco”. Here are my reasons: His price is right and will let me use budget elsewhere; the Steelers give up the 10th most fantasy points to QBs and at home, they give up the 5th most points; he is averaging 18 FFPG; he has had weeks with huge numbers, 28 points in week 4 and 35 points in week 6 and he has recently been finding Torrey Smith for touchdowns, while still getting Steve Smith, Sr. the ball. Before Dan says it, I know that he is also capable of putting up some real stinkers, note his 7 point performance last week and the 8 points in week 5. He is high risk, but in GPPs he could be the right ticket, not only for his own performance but for the performances from the other higher priced players I will be able to afford.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I went through the list of QBs before looking at Nick’s picks and I had Flacco as the first person I put into a lineup. I love his upside this week, and at a great price point. I am a bit uneasy of the division rivalry that usually ends up in a low scoring affair between these two teams, but for his price it is definitely worth the risk.
Dan’s QBs: Quick Note: The weather report out of Foxboro, MA right now looks like snow and rain on Sunday for the DEN @ NE game. With that report and bye weeks for Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, and Cutler it will be slim pickings at QB this week, so I will be digging pretty deep hoping to strike it rich.
Alex Smith ($5,700): Yes, Alex Smith finds my attention for the second straight week. I really like him this week. The Jets have given up at least two passing touchdowns to every Quarterback they have faced this year and Smith has shown promise with a pair of 3TD games on the season. He is also more mobile than people give him credit for. Lock him in this week!!! He is never highly owned.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Just as Dan said above regarding my Flacco pick, I was also giving Smith a long look this week as at the QB position it’s either real pricey or real risky. Smith is a game manager and the Jets suck (excuse my French); he should be good for 20 points. If he throws a couple of short passes to Charles who then proceeds to take it to the house, he actually could have a real nice week. I like it, Dan.
Mike Vick ($6,600): Vick gets the start this week and I see fireworks in his future. He gets the week to practice with the starting team, he has excellent receivers now with a healthy Eric Decker and an explosive Percy Harvin, and he has the ability to run for 50+ yards on the ground. The Jets’ defense gives up a lot of points through the air so he should be playing catchup all day. I am taking this shot and I actually think he has a high floor this week and would trust him even in Cash games. Be nice Nick.
Nick’s Chalkboard: As you can tell from my “handle” of Beaudog, I am a dog person, there is absolutely no way this man will be on any team I “own”. I know it’s personal and emotional but so be it. Also, I think KC at Arrowhead will rip this guy up.
Nick’s RBs: A quick note on my RBs this week. I purposely looked for mid and lower priced RBs so I could put more of my budget into WR and TE who seem to be priced higher this week.
Ronnie Hillman ($5,600): I love Hillman this week. First, Hillman has become fully integrated into the game plan for the Broncos and even in bad weather the short swing passes to the RB will still be viable options. Second, the Patriots are horrible versus RBs giving up the 6th most points in the running game and the 2nd most points to RBs in the passing game (look at Matt Forte last week – 34 fantasy points vs NE). Finally, his price is right at $5,600 he puts no strain on our budget at all.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Belichick likes to take away the best part of an offense. So with all of Denver’s weapons I see Hillman being lower on the list or an afterthought. He could have a big day. He did fall strange on his shoulder in practice though, so monitor it later in the week.
Nick re-response: The injury concern is there, definitely keep an eye on the report, and if it’s questionable there are other option in this price range.
Darren Sproles ($4,100): Sproles is practicing in full and should be a go this week versus the Texans, who are giving up the 5th most points to RBs in the passing game and are in the middle of the pack against RBs running the ball. With his backfield partner starting to show signs of life, this should put Sproles back in his “change of pace role” and could lead to a big day, especially in the PPR format at Draft Kings.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I’ll do Sproles a favor and say I don’t like him this week. That way he will blow up. I actually will fade him this week though. Knee injuries are funny things for running backs, especially ones that depend on quick cuts like Sproles. I want to see how he looks like mentally coming back from injury as it could take a game for him to get the trust back in it.
Denard Robinson ($4,800): FREE ANTONE SMITH!!! Opppsss wrong week. Back to this week. Denard Robinson appears to be the real thing with the Jaguars. In the last two weeks he has 40 rushes for 235 yards, for about 5.9 yards per carry average and 1 touchdown. This week he gets the Bengals who are not the defense they were touted to be in the beginning of the season, currently they are giving up the 8th most fantasy points to rushing running backs which is exactly what Robinson is. He seems to be the man right now on the Jaguars and seems worth a go this week.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I will use one of Nick’s favorite statements to tell you why I don’t like Robinson this week. The Bengals’ defense started bad, but is now “Regressing to the Mean”. The Bengals’ are who we thought they were and Robinson and the entire Jaguar team struggle this week.
Jeremy Hill ($4,000): As of writing this article Giovanni Bernard has missed practices in two straight days. I think with a winnable matchup against a bad Jaguar team the Bengals lean toward resting him. This leaves a “Big” wide open door for Hill to walk through. He should easily pay off his small 4k price tag with the start. I still like playing him even if Gio is active for the game, but absolutely love him if Gio is out of uniform.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Lock it up, ‘nuff said. I think he is going to be a BEAST!
Alfred Morris ($3900): If Morris played on Sunday with the same performance he would be probably low to mid $5000 salary range. He is a steal at $3900 this week against the Vikings who rank 7th worst against running backs. If RG3 gets the start and can sell the fact early in the game that he can still run the read option then Morris is in for a big day.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I have two concerns about Alf: his lack of TDs, only 4 this year; and his lack of action in the passing game in a PPR format, only 6 catches all year.
Jamal Charles ($7,100): The red 8th in Draft Kings by his name for Opponents Rank vs Position will scare off a lot of people from starting the 3rd highest priced running back. However, look at the two previous running backs that gave the Jets fits this year. Branden Oliver (37.2 pts) and Ronnie Hillman (17.6), both have similar styles as Charles, just not the same experience or talent. So, if they can have good games, Charles can have a great game.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Charles has had a couple of stinkers this year, but since his bye and now that he is relatively healthy he has been putting up great numbers. I like the pick; he is always just one step away from breaking one and ending up with a huge day!
Antonio Brown (9,100): The man is quite simply – “A BEAST”. He is averaging 26 FFPG and has only one week where he posted less than 17 fantasy points. As soon as Big Ben starts moving, Brown breaks off his route is the first person Roethlisberger looks for. Add to this the Ravens porous pass defense, currently giving up the 2nd most points to WRs and even at $9,100 I want Brown in my lineup.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I am worried about a low scoring game that is typical of the Ravens vs Steelers rivalry. I will not be paying this much for him this week even though I completely agree that he is “A Beast.”
Jeremy Maclin ($7,600): Maclin is showing why he is considered one of the best. As long as he stays healthy he is always a threat to put up huge numbers, this year he has already put up two 30+ point fantasy days, last week’s 46 points and week two’s 32.4 points. His propensity for these huge days makes him a nice pick for GPPs and this week he gets the Texans who give up the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs and even better, give up the 2nd most points to WR 1s.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I am a big Maclin fan when he is healthy. Even though this feels like “chasing” points, I like his chances against a weak Houston pass defense to put up great numbers for a second week in a row.
Andrew Hawkins ($4,900): After a fast start as a solid PPR play, Hawkins dropped off for a couple of weeks, but has come on strong in the last two weeks, logging in with 20 and 22 points and his first TD. Against a weak Tampa Bay defense (9th most points to WRs), Hawkins should be in for a good day and deliver us a nice 18-22 points.
Dan’s Chalkboard: The Browns running game was looking fantastic for a couple of weeks and Hawkins numbers suffered. Then they lost their starting center and can’t run worth a lick anymore and Hawkins has back to back 20 point games. He is a great pick for his price Nick. I shall be using him.
Dez Bryant ($8,200): The Cardinals are dead last in the league against number one wide receivers and this week will be no different. Romo or Weeden will find success chucking it up to him. It’s not like the Cardinals are going to focus on him instead of stopping Murray. I am betting that Bryant leads all wide receivers in points this week.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I don’t understand his pricing this year. He blows up big versus Giants in week 7 and price goes down to $6,900 last week, then he has a sub-par week last week and his price spikes to $8,200 !?!?!?! Come on Draft Kings, a little consistency please. Ok, rant over, Dez is elite and I agree it doesn’t matter who is throwing him the ball.
Mohamed Sanu ($6,400): I like him this week whether A.J. Green plays or not. If Green plays I actually like a Dalton/Sanu stack. He has been great filling in for the number one receiver spot and if Gio is a no go then they will have to rely on the air attack early and often. My only concern is a blowout.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Sanu has been a bit up and down and because I don’t know how Green’s presence will impact him, I am probably looking elsewhere.
Odel Beckham Jr ($5000): The Giants will be forced to throw a lot to stay with the high powered Colt offense. With a bye week to prepare the rookie should be all set for a big night and lots of targets.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I like Beckham this week, especially at his relatively low $5,000 price. I see him rapidly replacing Randle as Eli’s favorite red zone target and he seems to catch what Eli throws to him. Good Pick!
Rob Gronkowski ($7,600): Yes he is expensive, but he seems to be fully back and Brady is looking for him as indicated by his 27 receptions over the past four weeks and his truly stellar 45 fantasy point performance last week. This week in what promises to be a monster shootout I am going to sacrifice the budget money and ride this horse.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Keep an eye on the weather report as I mentioned earlier. If it turns out to be raining and snow then it could be a tough night for both air attacks. If it is playable weather then yea he is a great play. If the price tag bothers you, just consider him a wide receiver and put him in your flex.
Larry Donnell ($4,500): In week seven, prior to the Giants’ bye week, Donnell bounced back from two bad weeks to post 14 fantasy points on 7 catches for 90 yards (2 fumbles reduced his total). This week he gets a Colts team that gives up the 4th most points to TEs. If you don’t want to put the budget money into Gronkowski or Julius Thomas, Donnell is a good alternative, especially as it seems Eli Manning is looking for him again with Victor Cruz out for the year.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Did you say, “2 fumbles”. Donnell starts the year on fire, gets a big head and plays like crap and earns a spot in the dog house. Then Cruz gets hurt and he fights his way out of dog house. Then he has a good game, but fumbles twice in what could have cost them a win in a close game with the Cowboys. Bye week or no, he is back in the dog house. I hear Coughlin’s dog house is one of the worst to be in. I shall not be taking this risk for this price this week.
Vernon Davis ($3,700): Davis is due for a big game, and for his small price tag you can afford to take a shot on him. Kaepernick should have no problem collecting yards through the air and hopefully Davis can get in on the fun.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I want to see one big game from him before I get on board. It seems that there are so many options for Kaepernick in this offense that I just don’t feel good about Davis. I need him to prove that he is healthy and has Kaepernick’s eye.
Travis Kelce ($4,100): Kelce should get plenty of action against the Jets defense that is allowing the 3rd most points to opposing tight ends this year. I am rolling out a Alex Smith/Travis Kelce stack this week.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I like it a lot. Kelce is more WR than TE and against the Jets horrible pass defense Kelce will probably be Smith’s main target.
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,300): The Chiefs are at home at ARROWHEAD and they get to play the incredibly messed up New York Jets who not only can’t seem to get out of their own way, but seem to want to throw the ball to the opposing team rather than their own receivers. Michael Vick notwithstanding, the Chiefs defense racked up 19 points last week against the Rams, a similar performance against the Jets seems entirely possible.
Dan’s Chalkboard: You could absolutely be right, but I think it is going to be a shootout at Arrowhead this week so I can’t support this pick.
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,300): Cincy will stop the new found running attack of Jacksonville, and then proceed to fluster the rookie QB the rest of the day. If they can muster a defensive score they could hit the 20 point mark.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I like the Bengals too! I am pretty much dividing up my D/ST picks between the Bengals and the Chiefs. I think we have a side bet here in our H2H…you start the Bengals and I’ll start the Chiefs and we will see. Text me and let me know if you agree.
That is what we have for this week. We both hope that some of our picks will help you out. Remember with a little research and creativity you can create that perfect lineup that takes down the big bucks in this week’s HUGE, SPECTACULAR, Millionaire Maker contest.
Good Luck This Week!!
Perry04 & Beaudog (woof!)