Daily Fantasy Week 17: Shootouts and Defensive Struggles
Hi Daily Fantasy Veterans and Rookies,
Week 16 is in the books and most people who play fantasy football have had their “Super Bowl” and are now sitting around going “Now What? I need my fantasy football fix, it can’t be over yet, it just started”. Well, never fear, daily fantasy is still going strong for week 17 and over at Draft Kings there are still some huge prizes to win: $500,000 to first ($200 buy-in); $100,000 to first (only $12 buy-in); and a $25,000 to first for only a $2 buy-in.
Certainly some nice cash to still be won, and as we have been doing every week, this article will look at the Vegas Over/Under lines to see which games have a high expected point total which will yield many high fantasy point players and which are expected to be low scoring which should limit the fantasy value of those players involved.
To check out the first article of this series for a complete description of the strategy: CLICK HERE
In addition to this article, look for my second article this week looking at those games which have major playoff implications which means that all the studs will be playing for the whole game and those games where playoff bound teams have nothing to gain or lose, so they may end up sitting their star players at some point, thereby limiting the Daily Fantasy relevance.
This week all games will be played on Sunday so every player will be eligible for our daily fantasy lineups.
Here we go: Looking at Week 17 there is only one game that meets our 50 point over/under threshold.
Over/Under with Positive Impact on Value: TARGET PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK
For our negative game(s) we look for games under 42 points.
Over/Under with Negative Impact on Value: AVOID PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK
Basic strategy with the above information is to look for studs and lower priced value in the “POSITIVE” games and look to avoid most but not all of the players in the “NEGATIVE” games.
Now with our tools (FFC Strength of Schedule, FF Champs Defense Stats Allowed , The FFCPI and the FFC Daily Fantasy Rank Tool) primed and ready to go, we can now review our target games and make some decisions and look for value:
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants:
A couple of weeks ago, this game was looking like a monster with the Eagles fighting for the NFC East title and the Giants looking to play spoiler versus their I-95 rivals from down the road. Now it’s a pride game. The Eagles have seen their playoff dreams die an ignominious demise, while the Giants are just trying to salvage what’s left of their pride with a four game winning streak to end the season.
With two suspect defenses this should be a scoring bonanza and with two coaches, Chip Kelly and Tom Coughlin, who do not like to lose or ever give up, most of the big name offensive players, should be good to go and play a full game. These teams do not like each other and both will be trying to end the season on an up note and go into the off-season ready to build forward for the 2015 season.
While he is the highest priced player on Draft Kings at $9,600, Odell Beckham, Jr. has to be considered this week, the man simply cannot be stopped, see his point totals the last three weeks (38, 46 & 34), and the Eagles have not stopped anybody this year (Dez Bryant’s three TDs come to mind). There are some really good low cost options this week, so paying up for ODB can be done. A first step could be locking in Odell’s QB, Eli Manning at $7,100 (not a bad stack at $16,700) as the Eagles are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs this year (including 29 touchdown passes). The Eagles are not really good against anything which also puts Andre Williams and Rueben Randle, both at $4,800 in play. Larry Donnell has definitely cooled down since his fast start but at only $3,500, he could be worth a look in the wasteland that is the TE position.
For the Eagles, the weak Giant run defense could mean a big day for LeSean McCoy that is if Chip Kelly realizes that McCoy is actually an excellent running back and gives him the ball. Last time versus the Giants McCoy had 149 yards on 22 carries and if someone can keep Polk off the field he might actually find the end zone. At $6,700, he could be excellent value. Sanchez and his WRs have been mixed but in what should be a real shootout, they are all viable options, especially Maclin at $6,100 and Sanchez at $6,700. The Giants are giving up the 12th most points to TEs so it could be another big game for Zac Ertz, but you will have to pay for him at $5,100. The choice here is tough as Ertz really hasn’t proved to be consistent this year, more a question of game plan than talent. If you believe Chip Kelly wants to really see what he has with his big, athletic TE, then get Ertz in your lineup.
Hopefully the good Eli and good Sanchez will show up this week and this game will be the fantasy point smorgasbord it should be and help you take down some big cash at Draft Kings.
NEGATIVE GAMES: (Remember, a negative game does not mean that all players will stink and not put up fantasy numbers, it just means that there is generally better value to be had elsewhere)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ @ Houston Texans:
Wow, what can I say, one team that just is not very good with a rookie QB (Blake Bortles) who is playing like a rookie and the other team with a 12th string QB and a stud running back who is injury prone (yes I am talking about your Arian Foster). The Texans do have a slim chance at making the playoffs, they need to win (very possible) and need both the Ravens and Chargers to lose. Arian Foster will be out there and is only $7,900, great value. If they get up big Foster may come out, but I think the Texans will ride their number one guy and look to at least have a shot at the playoffs. I also really like the Texans D/ST against the Jaguars.
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks:
This really isn’t fair. Making the Rams go up to Seattle for the last game of the season, with the Seahawks wanting a win to lock in home field advantage through the playoffs. Really, the gods may be crazy but I see very little chance, barring a Christmas Miracle of the Rams mounting much if any offense in this game. Get the Seattle Seahawks defense in your lineup! Now!! As for the Seahawk offense, Beast Mode is getting his full “beast” on and is a solid play at only $7,300 (just look at last week when the Giants’ Andre Williams hung 110 yards on the mighty Rams front seven). My only concern is if the Seahawks get up big, it could turn into the Turbin/Michel show with an assist from the defense. I can’t really tout any of the Seahawks receivers and I am not chasing the points from Luke Willson. On the other hand, even in a blowout I expect Russell Wilson to play a full game to keep him sharp and he could have a huge day and be worth his $7,500 price tag.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers:
With a Vegas over/under of only 36 ½ points, this game looks to have little interest for the daily fantasy player. Myself, I would not want to trust that Gore and Kaepernick can once again have 50+ touchdown runs, and the Niners receiving corps has completely disappeared over the season. Don’t even get me started on the Cardinals offense. This game will be all about defense and both defenses are good daily fantasy plays. Otherwise I am just going to say good luck to the Cardinals and to anybody using any of the offensive players in this game.
Well, that is it for this week; remember to look for my second article today about using Playoff scenarios to help pick high upside players for this week’s final daily football fantasy contests on Draft Kings.
If you have any questions, comments or just want to talk fantasy, hit me up on Twitter (@Beaudog2).
Good luck this weekend!!!