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Friday, 12 December 2014

DraftKings Week 15 Strategy: Expert Lineup Analysis

Hi All,


Watch out Dan, as Satchel Paige said, “Don’t look behind you, something might be gaining on you”.  Woof, woof!  That something is the Doggy.  With another huge performance by the St. Louis Rams D/ST (27 fantasy points), I won the H2H this week by 16 points, making the race really tight with Dan in the lead 7 to 6.  With three weeks left in the season (including crazy week 17), it’s still a horse race, and one I intend to win!...Game on Dan, let’s take it to the limit!

Dan responds:  My old football jersey used to say “Toast” on the back of it, because if you could read it you knew it was over.  I may be a few pounds heavier since my hay day, but I still don’t get caught.  It’s a pride thing.  Dan Perry’s own quote, “You can’t move forward if you’re constantly looking in the rear view mirror.”  Ice up son, cuz its GAME ON!!


So, here we go……

As a reminder, FFCHAMPS.Com has a great tool you can use to help set up your Daily Fantasy Line Up:  Just Click Here to take a quick look at the FFChamps Daily Fantasy Ranks tool.  Just remember to come back and finish reading our article.


OK, back to the business at hand. 

As we do every week, Dan and I will take a look at the match-ups, the player performance, the Draft Kings’ pricing and the Daily Fantasy Rank Tool, of course, to suggest players we think will give you an edge as you put your Draft Kings Roster together and hopefully help you put together that perfect lineup that can take you all the way to big cash win!!!!

Before we start, just as a reminder, while we will not usually highlight the Major Studs at each position, these players, like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Demarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Rob Gronkowski, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, and Jeremy Maclin will be an integral part of your lineups.  Our goal here is to also spotlight some of medium, and even, lower priced players who can nicely fill out your lineup.  Thus allowing you to have that perfect combination of Studs and Value players to reach the money and ultimately take down first place.

So, while Dan and I will not specifically recommend many of these Studs in our discussion below, there are no reasons not to target them for your lineup.  In fact, this week, there is some GREAT value amongst the STUDs:  Jordy Nelson is only $7,800 and running mate Randall Cobb is $7,300; Josh Gordon (who hasn’t quite lit it up yet) comes in at $7,300 and while still expensive, Matt Forte is only $9,000; finally, Orange Julius (Thomas) is available for only $5,100, if he actually gets on the field he is a steal.  If you do decide to “pay up” for a Matt Forte or one of the other monster RBs (Bell, Murray, Foster) just realize you will have to work hard to find good value (i.e. low price/high production) in the other roster slots.

That is what we are here for!

As with every week, remember to keep your eye on the injury report and active/inactive list to make sure a player you may have rostered is in fact good to go, the worst thing in daily fantasy is to have a great big zero in your lineup because a player was a late scratch. 

So with this in mind, here we go!


Nick’s QBs: A note on my QBs:  This week while the “big” names are usable in price to point potential terms, I am looking at putting a lower priced QB in my lineup so I can get one of the major RBs. 

Matt Ryan ($6,600): I am a bit scared going with Ryan who at best has been inconsistent this year, but he has gotten it done the past two weeks (25 and 35 fantasy points), is playing in the Dome this week and most importantly gets to play the Pittsburgh Steeler defense that has been whacked by the Saints for 35 points and the Bengals for 42 points.  Damn, they even allowed 27 points to the Titans three weeks ago.  There is of course a huge caveat here however: Julio Jones.  If Jones is practicing then I am going with a Ryan/Julio stack.  If he doesn’t practice at all this week, I will most likely bail on Ryan.  Without Julio, Ryan can still have a good day, but would most likely not be the point monster you need in the big money GPPs.

DAN’S CHALKBOARD:  Man the NFC South just finds ways to lose games this year.  Who cares as long as the individual player put up good numbers?  Atlanta can easily have to play catchup again this week resulting in great numbers again for Matty Ice!! 


Derek Anderson ($5,000): Who? What?, am I crazy?  Like a Fox, baby, like a Fox.  This play is totally to try and load up everywhere else with somewhat limited downside.  With Cam Newton very likely out for this game, Anderson should get the start.  In his only other, also against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he put up 18 fantasy points, with a completion percentage over 70%.  He connected with Kelvin Benjamin 6 times for over 90 yards and a touchdown.  This week he gets Tampa Bay in his own stadium in Charlotte, and right now the Bucs are giving up the 7th most points to QBs and the 12th most points to WRs, in other words they are terrible against the passing game.  (I know Dan, the Bucs did do well against Cutler and Dalton, recently, but I am not looking for 30 points from Anderson, 15-20 will be fine, since I will be able to stock up elsewhere).  Of course if Cam is able to play, I will leave Anderson on the bench.

DAN’S CHALKBOARD:  It’s a starting QB going against the Buccaneer defense and he is minimum salary.  Heck ya I will throw this dart.  


Dan’s QBs:

Phillip Rivers ($6,200):  The volume alone will justify his price this week.  The last time these teams squared off Rivers threw the ball 41 times (21 points).  He will have to be in that same area this week as well to stay with the Denver offense.  At a mere $6,200 and his potential, definitely sign me up.     

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Peyton has spent the week listening to all the talk about how he didn’t throw a TD, his arm strength isn’t what it used to be, YADA YADA YADA….  He is going to come out chucking the ball all over the place and Rivers will have to throw it a ton to keep up.  At his salary, get me some Philip Rivers.


Mark Sanchez ($6,500):  A lot like Rivers above, Sanchez had a bad week last week, which is bad for his team, but good for his salary this week.  It is expected to be a close game with an over/under of 55 points.  He should easily pay off his affordable salary this week.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  As long as he keeps away from his linesmen’s butts he should be ok and he has some great tools to throw to, two TD’s easy, maybe three!


Nick’s RBs:  Note:  My first two RBs this week are based on using Derek Anderson with his $5,000 salary, if you decide to go a bit higher at QB, you should still be able to use one of them along with my third RB selection.

Le’Veon Bell ($9,600): What are these numbers: 50.5, 42.4 and 33.2?  They are Le’Veon Bell’s fantasy points for the last three weeks.  What are these numbers: 2nd and 3rd?  They are the Atlanta Falcons rank in terms of points given up to RBs in the running game and the passing attack, respectively.  Is Le’Veon Bell involved in both the running and passing attacks?  Yes! Now let me ask you this, who are the Pittsburgh Steelers and Le’Veon Bell playing this week?  The Atlanta Falcons!  ‘nuff said!  I am rostering Le’Veon Bell!

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I usually look to see which running back is going against the Falcons’ defense and plug them in.  When I see Le’Veon Bell in that spot I grin first then plug them in.


Matt Forte ($9,000): Forte has nine games over 24 fantasy points including 3 games over 33 points.  This week he plays the New Orleans Saints, who are giving up the 5th most points to RBs on the ground and the 8th most points to RBs through the air.  It’s a great match-up for him and with Brandon Marshall sidelined for the rest of the season he should see even more work both on the ground and in the passing game.  I am willing to “pay up” for him this week.  As an added benefit, I love Monday Night Juice!

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Forte is due for a big day and the Saints’ defense will help provide it in what looks to be a Monday Night shootout.


Chris Ivory ($4,200): The Tennessee Titans are absolutely horrible against the run (giving up the most fantasy points to RBs) giving up 8 rushing touchdowns in the past six weeks, while giving up 200, 153, 204, 160, 98 and 136 yards on the ground.  Last week, the Giants Andre Williams, who has a very similar bruising running style to Chris Ivory, posted 131 yards and a touchdown and put up 27 fantasy points.  With the NY Jets weak passing attack, Rex Ryan will again rely heavily on his rushing attack and Ivory should have a huge day against the hapless Titans run defense.  At only $4,200, Ivory fits very nicely into the Flex slot.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I refuse to get on board with any Jet offensive player.  I don’t care what the matchup looks like on paper.  Last week I faded Harvin on this principle and it burnt me, this week it will burn you Nick that you didn’t follow my principle.


Dan’s RBs:

LeSean McCoy ($6,600):  Admittedly, I have put McCoy on this list too much this year.  He has burnt me enough, but he has been so cheap and its fricking Shady!!  I am not ready to give up on him yet.  Two reasons, 1.) His best game of his disappointing year came against the Cowboys, and 2.) His O-line is finally starting to get healthy.  He disappointed against a tuff Seahawk run defense last week which keeps his price right.  With and over/under of 55 points, this is the week he blows up!!     

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Last time these two teams met a couple of weeks ago, McCoy ran roughshod over them to the tune of 156 yards and a touchdown.  The Cowboys defense has been getting it done with smoke and mirrors, slim shady should have another big night as Chip Kelly will look to establish the run to open up his passing game.  Look for the Cowboys defensed to get gassed when they can’t get off the field, and for McCoy to take full advantage.


Alfred Morris ($5,000):  Something I never dreamed I would say this season, but I am hoping that RGIII gets the start this week.  If so, then Alfred Morris is an absolute steal at $5,000.  He is so much better when RGIII is in to run the read option, and the Giants’ defense has given up big games to running backs this year.  If RGII starts, get him in he is a steal.  If RGII sits, his price is just about right, so I will still use him, but I am not as thrilled about it.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I agree that if RG3 is in the backfield, the read-option should open up some running lanes for Morris against the Giants, but I just don’t know if I could plunk down the salary for a Washington player.  For Goodness sake, they are fighting each other.  If Colt is in the backfield I am going nowhere near Morris.


Latavius Murray ($4,000):  First game back from concussion and he totes the rock 23 times!!  It is obvious to me that the Raiders are going to feature him the rest of the year to see what they have in this young player.  Why wouldn’t you with your other options being MJD or RUN DMC.  Oh yea, he carried 4 times the last time facing the Chiefs and those went for 114 yards and 2 scores before he left with a concussion.  If he gets close to that on 20+ carries that is 6.5 times value.  That is awesome!!

Nick’s Chalkboard:   Kansas City’s run defense has resembled Swiss cheese the last several weeks and the kid Murray is getting the work, he had 20 carries last week.  Against this defense, I love the $4,000 salary and definitely see Murray as a viable option.


Nick’s WRs: 

Mike Evans ($6,600):  Mike Evans and the Bucs face the Carolina Panthers who are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to WRs.  Evans has also become the go to guy in Tampa Bay, with 9 or more targets each game since week 8 as well as 8 touchdowns including 3 multi-TD games.  He has become a certified Stud and always has the potential for a huge game.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  The Panthers looked very good against the Saints’ and they have a lot better of an offense then the Bucs.  With the accident to Newton, there will be even more emphasis on the defensive side and I think the Panthers of 2013 come to play.  They could still win the division.


Jordan Matthews ($5.700): It’s going to be a war as the Dallas Cowboys roll into the city of brotherly love to play the Philadelphia Eagles with the playoffs on the line.  Jordan Matthews has shown that he is Mark Sanchez’ favorite target and has been getting the job done.  With Jeremy Maclin on the field, Matthews is still the Eagles’ WR2 and this week will be facing a Cowboys secondary that gives up the 12th most points to WR2s.  After LeSean McCoy ran all over Dallas the last time the teams met two weeks ago, the Cowboys will most likely try to stack the box a bit leaving more room for Matthews to work his magic and he should be in for a great week.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I don’t see the Dallas’ defense winning this; it will have to be their offense outscoring them in a shootout.  I like Matthews in this shootout. 


Marqise Lee ($3,600):  I like Lee for two reasons:  First he is cheap! And second, he is fast becoming a major cog in the Jaguars’ passing game with 8 targets each of the last two weeks which translated into 11 catches, 142 yards and a touchdown.  With the Ravens secondary giving up the most points to WRs, this could be a huge game for this rookie and at his price he is well worth the risk.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I am a value junkie and I think I have converted Nick into one too.  We have side bets weekly and the loser can only use 45k of the 50k salary in a H2H to form a team.  If you have a buddy to do this with it is a great way to help find gems, since you have to roster a couple of sub 4k guys to fill a legal team.  It really turns you into a searcher of value (better than a value junkie I guess).  How do you argue with 8 targets for $3600?  Nice find Nick.  I will be using him in a roster or two.


Dan’s WRs:

Dez Bryant ($7,900):  I believe that Dallas ate a bunch of turkey before their Thanksgiving Day contest against the Eagles, so at kickoff the Tryptophan was in full effect and the team fell asleep.  That won’t be the case this Sunday as they look to revenge their bad loss.  Dez will be a big part of that.        

Nick’s Chalkboard:  At only $7,900, Dez is way, way too cheap to fade this week.  In what will be an offensive shootout, I love the Romo to Dez connection.  Sign me up.


Sammy Watkins ($5,600):  Volume…Volume…Volume.  It’s my favorite word in DFS as all our loyal readers will tell you. Kyle Orton had to throw the ball 57 times last week to stay with the running game of Denver!!  He may have to throw 60+ to stay with the passing game of Green Bay.  12 of those targets went to Sammy Watkins and I expect similar targets this week.  At $5,600 that is way too much VOLUME to ignore.  Sign me up.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Watkins definitely seems to be over the various nagging injuries that slowed him down somewhat in the mid-season and is clearly Orton’s favorite target.  Green Bay showed last week what a quality WR can do to their secondary, I think Watkins has a quality day as Buffalo will be playing catchup all day.


Marquess Wilson ($3,000):  Everyone needs to take this shot.  Brandon Marshall was put on IR for the rest of this season.  This means in steps 6’4” 207lb Marquis Wilson to replace 6’4” 230lb Brandon Marshall at the wide receiver position.  This game has an over/under of 54 and is expected to be close.  If Cutler pretends Wilson is Marshall then he is in store for 5-10 targets.  For minimum salary it just doesn’t get any better than that.  ??Side bet Nick…my Marquess vs you’re Marquis??

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Done and Done, Dan…bet on!!!  As for your pick, I have been hearing his name pop up all over the Podcast Universe and after looking into him, I like this play.  Cutler is a gunslinger and loves to heave the ball down the field.  In what will be a scoring bonanza of a game, Cutler of course will take a first look at Alshon, but will look for his new #2 WR and the kid could be in for a big day.  He may look like a toothpick (come on man, put on some pounds), but he looks like the real deal.  It will be fun to see which Marq has the better day.  Love this side bet!


Nick’s TEs: 

Dwayne Allen ($3,300): In his first game back from a multiple game injury, Allen was only targeted 3 times.  With one week back under his belt, Allen should be much more involved in the offense this week and should be back on Andrew Luck’s TD radar like he was early in the year.  In the wasteland that is the TE position this year, at only $3,300, Allen is good value as he should get back to the 9-15 fantasy point he was in prior to his injury.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  It is really getting stressful finding productive tight ends in value.  It’s like betting parlays, great when they hit, but a drain on the bankroll till they do.  If I were going for value in the position the Allen would be on my parlay card.


Jordan Cameron ($4,000):  Last week I told you that Cameron was good value at $3,000 if he played.  Well, he played, and he was OK, with 4 catches for 41 yards.  This week, he is more expensive at $4,000; however with rookie, Johnny Football getting the start, he could put up even bigger numbers as many rookies look to their TE as a security blanket and target them early and often. Yes it’s a bit of a risk, as Manziel could totally crash and burn and take all of the Browns with him, it’s a risk that does have a high upside as Cameron has the potential to put up huge numbers from the TE position.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Same thoughts as above.  Can everyone tell that I am fed up with the tight end positon for the year?   I am just going to target higher priced ones and find value in other places. 


Dan’s TEs:

Jimmy Graham ($6,300):  This is the second lowest price tag Jimmy Graham has had all season, and it comes in a week when he is facing a Bears’ defense that is ranked 26th against the tight end position.  It’s a bit scary with the rollercoaster of a Saints offense this year, but it will pay off big when he hits pay dirt and 100 yards receiving.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Dan, I don’t know if I will be able to resist putting Graham in a couple of lineups either, especially at this price, but I am scared, I am not sure if Graham is 100%.  Something is wrong, I mean how does Jimmy Graham get 11 targets and catch only 3 of them for 25 yards and no TDs.  I have stayed on the Graham bandwagon most of the season, if he disappoints this week, in this match-up, then somebody has some explaining to do.


Travis Kelce ($4,600):  Kelce woke up last week to the tune of 7 catches for 100 yards.  Hopefully now Andy Reid realizes his talent and exploits defenses with it the rest of the way.  If so, the time to roster him is now before his price goes to high 5k.  

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Dan, you are talking about Andy Reid.  You know what is going to happen, Kelce will catch 4 to 7 passes for 80 or so yards and then Alex Smith will throw the TD to Fasano.  It has just been so frustrating this year.  But, I do like Kelce this week and would not argue with this pick.


Nick’s D/STs:

New York Giants ($3,100):  Let’s Go Blue!!!!! The Giants have found a pass rush somewhere, recording 15 sacks in the past two weeks along with 2 interceptions, while holding their opponents to a grand total of a combined 14 points against.  Ok, I hear you, it was the Titans and the Jaguars, but this week they get…..wait for it….the Washington Redskins who still don’t know who will be starting at Quarterback, don’t know whether their best offensive weapon, DeSean Jackson will even be on the field, much less at 100% and field an offensive line that has given up 46 sacks this year.  Maybe they found a fountain of youth and used it on Lawrence Taylor, Jim Burt, Michael Strahan and Harry Carson.  Whatever it is, they put up 27 fantasy points last week and could very easily put up another 25+ point performance again this week.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I think the Redskins are going to play ball control offense, high percentage passes, and pound the ball.  That is never great for a defense.  I see 5 points in the Giants future.


Nick just can’t help himself and has to comment:  We will see, Dan, we will see.


New England Patriots ($2,800):  The Patriots are great at home in December.  I think the defense uses this game as a statement to let the Dolphins know that they are still the kings of this division!!

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I would never argue with picking the Patriots at Home as the evil genius Belichick usually comes up with something, especially with the warm weather Dolphins in town. I like the pick Dan….good one!


That is what we have for this week.  We both hope that some of our picks will help you out.  Remember with a little research and creativity you can create that perfect lineup that takes down the big bucks in this week’s HUGE, SPECTACULAR, Millionaire Maker contest.


Good Luck This Week!!

Perry04 & Beaudog (woof!)


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