DraftKings Divisional Playoffs Strategy: Expert Lineup Analysis
With the first Beat the Boys in the record books, Dan posted a very slim 0.9 point victory over Chelly86, great job Chelly, Dan is tough to beat. WaterboyBB took third, 2 points back. My ninth place finish was very disappointing, but congrats to those that were able to beat me.
Dan says: It was a tight one. “Boom” Herron carried the load for me. I was hoping one of our readers would win, for me it is really just about beating Beaudoggy, Woof!! I am bringing the “A” game again this week to guarantee bragging rights till next year over Nick, so you all need to “step it up” if you want my $2.
Last week we were able to get a 15 person contest together and this week we are going to do it again and look to get more of you involved. To remind you, we have set up an email account << BeatTheBoys2014@gmail.com >> and if you want to get in on the action in our little league, just email us your Draft Kings screen name and on Friday we will send you an invite to the league. If you have played on Draft Kings you know that player created leagues will not “go” if they do not fill up. So please don’t request an invite if you think you won’t be able to join the league when you get the invite. We would hate to set this up and then have the contest not go (if it doesn’t go all entries are refunded).
Last week’s contest was winner takes all, but if we get to 20 entries we will do top two. If we hit 30 it will pay top 3 spots and then 1 spot for every 10 more entries. Okay, so it is only a $2 league so the money will not be huge, but if you can beat Dan and/or the doggy himself, just think of the bragging rights you will have!
So again, it will be a $2 contest, send us your Draft Kings screen name to BeatTheBoys2014@gmail.com and then look for your invite starting Friday night. I am hoping to get to at least 25 entries, but will gladly take any and all comers!!!! Come on folks, you can’t let Dan and I lord it over you all summer that we kicked your butts!!!! Make us eat our words and show us your stuff….hey after all in the article below we are basically telling you who we like and will most likely be using, though we may have a surprise or two in store…..hey we are not just going to roll over and play dead, ok maybe I will, since I am a doggy after all…..hope to see you all in the contest!!!!!!!!
So, here we go……
As a reminder, FFCHAMPS.Com has a great tool you can use to help set up your Daily Fantasy Line Up: Just Click Here to take a quick look at the FFChamps Daily Fantasy Ranks tool. Just remember to come back and finish reading our article.
OK, back to the business at hand.
This will be our last lineup article of the season and we hope it has helped you out. This week, Draft Kings has a lot of big contests, including a $20 $700,000 guaranteed prize pool contest with a $100,000 first prize and they are bringing back the $2 Million Millionaire maker complete with its $1 Million first prize.
Since there are only eight teams going this week (Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers), instead of our normal group of players (2 QBs, 3 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE and 1 D/ST) we are going to trim it a bit to 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WR, 1 TE and 1 D/ST. Between both Dan’s and My picks and our comments you should have a good core group of players to start your lineup with. Of course, your own gut feelings, research and knowledge will ultimately help you set your final lineup and hopefully take down a big prize and perhaps more importantly: “Beat The Boys” in our special little tournament….look above if you skipped the intro for more information.
With a whole load of monster studs to consider (you know the names, Rodgers, Brady, Demaryius, Jordy, etc.) major decisions will need to be made and low priced risky options considered, so what do we do, who do we use?
Never fear that is what we are here for!
As with every week, remember to keep your eye on the injury report and active/inactive list to make sure a player you may have rostered is in fact good to go, because the worst thing in daily fantasy is to have a great big zero in your lineup because a player was a late scratch.
So with this in mind, here we go!
HOLD ON!!! WAIT A MINUTE!!!
Dan and I usually don’t deal with the flex spot as a separate entity, but this week I have a major Flex spot move for all of us. And get this it won’t cost a cent. This week I am going “all-in” at Flex with the referees doing the Dallas/Green Bay game. They have to be good for at least a TD or two as the league tells the refs to make all rulings in favor of the Cowboys. I wish I had made the move last week in the Detroit/Dallas game, but those are the breaks….
OK, I am only being facetious, but man those refs were definitely out to lunch!!!! Just my 2 cents.
I now return you to your regularly scheduled program…….
Joe Flacco ($6,900): Last week I was Whacko for Flacco, well he came through pretty well, with a 19 point day and his priced has dropped this week down to $6,900, which make me want to go with him again. I may be whacko! but Flacco has shown that he really brings it on in the playoffs with a 10-4 playoff record, including two victories over the Patriots (in Foxboro!). I need the salary cap; I am going to ride with Flacco again this week.
DAN’S CHALKBOARD: Your Whacko if you take Flacco. Am I mistaken or does New England still have Derrell Revis and Brandon Browner playing cornerbacks? If you’re going to beat the Pats this year it is with a running game and dump down passes. That’s what Flacco had in years past when he went to Foxboro and got wins, aka Ray Rice. The most recent win in Foxboro, Flacco did throw 3 TD passes however, I don’t see a repeat of that performance.
Tom Brady ($7,800): With no Ray Lewis to motivate the defense it will crumble at the hands of Tom “Terrific”. Baltimore loves to stop the run and give up a lot of offense through the air; as was the case last week allowing Roethlisberger to throw for 334 passing yards and a touchdown. The Patriots red zone offense is much better than the Steelers and I would expect the same yardage this week with an added TD or two through the air. Of course I will always take a Brady QB sneak TD as well.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I think Brady gets 3 TDs this week, two to Gronk and 1 to either LaFell or Edelman. I like the pick, Dan and while I won’t be using Brady in the “Beat the Boys” contest, I will have him in a couple of other lineups.
Eddie Lacy ($7,200): Lacy has been the man for the Packers this year and has proved throughout the season to be a major force both on the ground and through the air. Against a Dallas Cowboys team that allowed 171 total combined yards and a touchdown to the Detroit Lions’ running backs last week, I like Lacy this week to be a major factor and continue to put up big fantasy numbers. At a relatively modest price tag of $7,200 I like him a bunch this week.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Green Bay is going to roll over the warm weather Dallas Cowboys early in this contest. The second half will be the Eddy Lacy show to help rest the calf of Rodgers. Nice pick.
CJ Anderson ($7,600): At a very reasonable price, CJ Anderson looks too good to pass up this week against a very weak Colts rushing defense, that just last week allowed the Bengals running backs a total of 190 combined yards and a touchdown. They managed this poor performance despite a Bengals deep passing game that was totally inept to say the least. CJ will have the benefit of an over the top passing game (note the players Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders) to keep the Colts’ safeties busy and “out of the box”. A lot of points are expected in this game (Vegas Over/Under of 54); I can’t imagine CJ Anderson not getting his share.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Couldn’t agree more, and the Broncos have shown that they are willing to give him the ball and all the touchdowns close to the goal line. I just think his price reflects a clear cut #1 running back, and now that Hillman is back to fully healthy, I don’t see the Broncos just not using him. I would say listen to as much reporting out of Denver as you can and tread carefully with Andersons price tag. If he loses 10 touches to Hillman I think that is a big problem.
Justin Forsett ($5,400): If Baltimore is to have a chance in this one it will be dependent on Forsett running and catching balls out of the backfield. He is up for a lot of work in this one, and I love me some volume. What a great price for him too. Sign me up.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I am going to return to a theme I have espoused several times this year: “Return to the Mean”. Forsett had a great middle of the season, but has recently come crashing down to earth. He has not scored more than 20 fantasy points since week 12 and in the past four weeks has scored over 8 points only once, and this includes his 4.3 point performance last week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers who are not really known for their run defense. He may be inexpensive this week, but I think the Ravens will struggle on the ground versus the Patriots who are giving up 9th fewest points to RBs on the ground and have only yielded 1 TD to a RB on the ground since week 11 and only 6 all season long. Through the air to RBs, they have not allowed a TD since week 9. Not loving the journeyman Forsett this week.
Dan “Boom” Herron ($5,300): Ten catches has me fully on board with the Boom for the second straight week. He will get work playing from ahead or behind, and with T.Y. Hilton stretching the field he will have room to work after the short dump down passes.
Nick’s Chalkboard: While I don’t like Forsett, I think Boom can get it done again this week and like his price. One stat sticks out big time as why I like Boom: Denver is giving up the second most points to RBs through the air and that is where Herron makes his living. Luck should be checking down to him all day long. Good Pick Dan!
Julian Edelman ($6,400): The Ravens are dead last against WR, giving up the most fantasy points versus the position this year. Edelman is a PPR monster and Brady should look for him early and often. He has a real high floor this week and if he can get into the end zone his ceiling could put us over the top. At his relatively inexpensive price, he seems a no brainer this week.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I am in agreement with Nick on Baltimore’s defense against wide receivers, and Edelman should get plenty of work in this one, and it would be great if he could find the end zone.
Randall Cobb ($7,300): All season long, Cobb’s price has always been a bit lower than expected. Look at these numbers, 91 receptions, 12 touchdowns, almost 1,300 yards and a 19.1 FFPG. Cobb has a very high floor and has a sky high ceiling if Rodgers decides to throw him a touchdown or two. The Cowboys’ secondary scares nobody, the Packers are at home at Lambeau, and all indications are that Aaron Rodgers should be his 100% best. For only $7,300, Cobb is a great start, especially since I have targeted two of the top four running backs.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Golden Tate is a lot like Randall Cobb and look what he did last week in the #2 WR spot. Granted Jordy Nelson won’t pull as much safety help as Megatron did, but Cobb should still see his share of one-on-one coverages to exploit.
Dez Bryant ($8,400): The Packers’ short cornerbacks always struggle against bigger wide receivers. Dez is a prima-donna and I love that about him, because he is going to want the rock after being an almost non-factor in last week’s win. He will be needed early and often to keep up with the big green offensive machine so I am fine with his price tag.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Dallas will have to throw to keep up with Rodgers and the boyz, and if that is the case the big, physical Dez is a no brainer. Even at his price tag, I think he goes for two TDs this week. I like the pick!
Doug Baldwin ($4,500): Man I love risk when picking players for GPP. Please step to the plate Doug Baldwin. I can all but guarantee you he will either be under 10 points or over 20 points this week. If you know who Bene Benwikere and Josh Norman are and think they are great, then you most likely live in one of the Carolinas and don’t like this pick. If you’re like the rest of the world and have to look it up to find out they are the cornerbacks covering Baldwin this weekend, then you will like this pick. Sorry all you Carolina homers out there, but these guys have been sub-par all year.
Nick’s Chalkboard: This week due to the pricing on Draft Kings, a one or two inexpensive WRs are a necessity and of all the cheap WRs (under $5,000), Baldwin sticks out to me. I also agree that Baldwin will be boom or bust. Russell Wilson has shown a frustrating tendency to throw TDs to players we have never heard of or would never consider putting in our lineups, but if he remembers he has a solid WR in Baldwin and throws him the ball, Dougie should score enough points to make his value and potentially exceed it big time.
Dwayne Allen ($3,500): Returning from injury Allen is has worked himself back into the lineup, catching all three of his targets last week. The Broncos are giving up the third most points to TEs this year and if we are not going to pay up for one of the top three TEs (Gronk, Olsen, Thomas), he seems the most likely of the cheaper TEs to have a shot at the end zone. This game is going to be high scoring; there is a good chance that Luck will look for his TD producing tight end in the end zone.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I gave up on value in the TE spot weeks ago. It is just too inconsistent for me; single point days are lineup killers even in GPP and especially in Cash games.
Gronk ($7,100): I almost wrote Julius Thomas, but stopped myself. There is value to be found in other areas. He is the best TE in the league let alone the best TE of the weekend. He draws a favorable matchup and he loves the spotlight. I convinced myself to put him in all lineups this weekend and only Julius Thomas has close to his upside, but he is been absolutely touchdown dependent this year.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I tried and tried and tried and tried, well you get the idea, to get Gronk in my lineup without totally killing myself elsewhere but I decided to go big at RB (Lacy and Anderson), so I had to sacrifice at TE. I really like Gronk this week. You can almost book 2 TDs as far as I am concerned. Love the pick, Dan.
Carolina Panthers ($2,700): This game is pegged as the lowest scoring of all the playoff games this weekend. The Vegas boys have it as a 40 point Over/Under. This means defense and the Panthers have been getting it done defensively of late. If I had the budget I would take the Seahawks defense, but as a second choice the Panthers at only $2,700 (a thousand less than the Seahawks), are a better option than the other teams playing this weekend as those games should all be shootouts with defense only a second thought.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I think Carolina wins this game, and they will have to do it with some tuff tuff defense. This is the team I pick for value if I am going that route.
Green Bay Packers ($3,000): What?? Dick Vital just jumped on my laptop for this one. It’s going to be “blow out city” baby!! The Cowboys are one week “Diaper Dandies” and Romo is going to be an “MIAer” in this one baby!! The Packers defense has a bunch of “PTPers” that will be “Bringing the W” to Titletown come Sunday!! Whoooop!! Ok…that last one you got from Chris Berman, but thanks for stopping by Dicky V and I couldn’t agree more with your analysis. GO PACK GO!!!!
Nick’s Chalkboard: I am sensing some Home Team love here Dan. I think and HOPE Green Bay blows the doors off the Cowboys and force Romo into 3 INTs and 2 fumbles. We are talking about Romo here so it is entirely possible. As a D/ST this week, Green Bay will have to depend on Sacks and Turnovers for their points because I do think a ton of points will be scored in this game by both sides. The pick is ok, and a 10 point game from the Packers defense is entirely possible, and realistically that’s what you want from a D/ST especially in the playoffs where no team is a pushover. I am not against this pick.
That is what we have for this week. We both hope that some of our picks will help you out. Remember with a little research and creativity you can create that perfect lineup that takes down the big bucks in this big contests over at Draft Kings.
And don’t forget to email us at BeatTheBoys2014@gmail.com with your Draft Kings screen name so we can send you an invite to our Divisional Playoff Weekend Beat The Boys $2.00 contest to win some cash and try for BRAGGING RIGHTS over Dan and me.
Good Luck This Week!!
Perry04 & Beaudog (woof!)