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Sunday, 15 March 2015

Daily Fantasy Golf: The Valspar Championship

Daily Fantasy Golf:  The Valspar Championship

As I stated in my previous article.  The three main stat factors to determine success for this weekend are fairways hit, three put avoidance, and scrambling.  Now as I will rely on this for the majority of my decisions, it won’t be my only factors.

It is important to take everything into consideration.  For instance, a big hitter may hit three wood off the tee box all weekend and improve his fairway hit percentage for a short time.  These guys are the best in the world at their sport and can adapt to all course conditions.  As the commercials say, “These guys are good!” 

So if a few of my picks don’t rank high in these important stat categories, it doesn’t mean I am just playing favorites.  Bubba Watson, for example, I would fade this weekend if he were playing because I don’t believe he has the patience and mental toughness to hit three wood all weekend.  However, I don’t feel the same with Adam Scott.  The control this guy has over his game and mental state makes him a contender at any course.

I am going to introduce a new game I will try this weekend.  I am going to call it “Break the Bank” I will be attempting to lose up to $100 to my readers throughout the season.  However, I am not that charitable of a person, so you will have to earn it.

The first person to comment on this article with their DraftKings username will get a shot at me H2H this week.  Please also include in your comment how much you want to play for $5 $10 or $20 and I will send you the invite.   

Since it is golf, I will also be handicapping myself in this event.  While the lucky winner is allowed the full 50k salary cap, I will be choosing my team with a $47000 salary cap.  Each week I win I will drop it down by $2000, but if I lose I go back to $47000.  I will continue this throughout the season until I lose $100 or the season ends.  Please only comment if you truly intend to play in the H2H against me.

Ok.  On to the picks.

RAISING THE CUP:  Guys I expect a top 10 finish from, with a great chance at winning.  NOTE:  As much as I like the top three guys on DraftKings, I just don’t think it is wise to spend up for them.  If I was going to it would be with Adam Scott however, there are just too many other people that can win this tourney to spend up for these guys in my opinion.

  1. 1.      Jim Furyk ($10,900):  I don’t see another golfer in the field that I trust more to be successful this weekend.  Although I have doubts on him winning, it’s worth it for the safety he brings with a top 10 finish.
  2. 2.      Luke Donald ($9,900):  Well, after much back and forth I decided he is just too good on this course to fade this week.  He has a great habit of excelling on courses he has done well in the past.  Current form he has only one top 25 in seven starts this year, which was at the Honda Open with a T7, also a course he fared well in the past.  So I will trust his form for the course as his last four years have been T6, Win, T4, and T4. 
  3. 3.      Kevin Na ($8,300):  I think Na is the steal of the tournament.  He finished runner up here last year.  He closed last week T9 thanks to closing his last three rounds under par and only one bogey over his last 31 holes.  Last year he led this field in fairways hit, fewest bogeys, and most pars.  When player form aligns perfectly with course form, sign me up. 
  4. 4.      Justin Rose ($10,100):  He performs well here every year outside of one round.  Last year he finished T8 with a closing round of 74 (+3).  I will gamble that he cleans up the bad round and makes a run at number one this year. 

Playing the Weekend:  Guys I fully expect to make the cut, and hoping for a top 15 or better finish.

  1. Brendan Todd ($8,100):  Not the flashiest player on tour by any means, but has been solid in his last three outings with a T10, T14, and T23.  He comes into the weekend 9th on tour in fairways hit, 18th in scrambling, 14th in bogey avoidance, and 30th in bounce back.  All factors to be successful this weekend.  If he can get his putter back to last year’s form he will be in the Sunday conversation.   
  2. Martin Laird ($8,600):  Was hoping DraftKings forgot about him since he hasn’t teed it up in a month, but the $8,600 price tag is about right.  He is an excellent ball striker as displayed by his T15, T5, T7, in his last three tournaments before taking a vacation for a month??  Guess I am a bit confused but not that concerned about it.  I expect low ownership in the GPP’s on DraftKings because of it though, which is always a plus.
  3. Will MacKenzie ($7,400):  He has been sidelined with a wrist injury, knocked the dust off a couple weeks ago at the Honda Classic with a missed cut.  Rebounded in last weekends “Other” tournament the Puerto Rico Open with a sold T6 showing.  He fared well here last year (T4) and comes in at a great price. 
  4. Jason Dufner ($8,200):  Dufner has made the cut six times in seven tries at Copperhead.  His game sets up well here, but has never put it all together.  Hopefully his trimmer physique changes that this year and he can reach his first top 10.

Tin Cuppers:

  1. Shawn Stefani ($6,300):  One of the first things I do when DraftKings posts their players for a golf contest is look and see if Shawn Stefani is in the field.  Jump on board and enjoy the ride.  I wanted to put him up higher, but he can miss the cut.  If he makes the weekend, he will reward you with birdies.  FYI, he was the 36 hole leader his last time here in 2013. 
  2. 2.      Johnathan Byrd ($5,700):  Tough to argue with the value here.  Byrd has never missed the cut at this tournament in 11 tries.   He could be in the above category, but I’m not as enthusiastic of his chances of breaking the top 15 as I am that he will play 72 holes for only $5,700. 
  3. Zach Blair ($5,300):  Love what this rookie is doing this year, and this course should set up nice for him.  He has all the right stats for success here, 25th in fairways hit, 7th in scrambling, 23rd in bogey avoidance, 32nd in bounce back, and 13th in shots gained putting.  He is the only golfer in the field with 5 out of 6 top 50s in categories I feel are necessary for success this weekend.  Let the magic happen.
  4. Will Wilcox ($5,400):  Shot five over in the opening round at the Puerto Rico Open last weekend, and rallied back to shoot -11 in the final three rounds.  I will ride the hot hand and see what happens.

My Foursome:  I want to go safe and affordable at the top of my list to take some guys I am high on in the mid and lower tiers.

Jim Furyk $10,300

Kevin Na $8,300

Martin Laird $8,600

Shawn Stefani $6,300

With safety in the top three choices I want to roll with Stefani and the missed cut risk he brings to the table, as I think he can go low and make a run at this tournament.   If I am right, great.  If not, then I will have to hit with my other picks.  Remember you need 4 of 6 to make the cut to have any chance of cashing. 

Golfer:  “You have got to be the worst caddie ever!!”

Caddie:  “I don’t think so.  That would be too much of a coincidence.”

Happy Drafting,



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