Daily Fantasy Week 5: Shootouts And Defensive Struggles

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Hi Daily Fantasy Veterans and Rookies,

It was a tough Week Four with six teams and many studs on bye.  We all made it through and now we move onto Week Five.  Since this is Daily Fantasy, our teams that took us into the money are no more and once again, we will be building our team from the ground up. 

It is a very special week for Daily Fantasy as we all have the opportunity to turn a $27 entry into a cool $1,000,000 in the Millionaire Maker contest, of which, I am all sure you have heard .  Click here to make your entry and to take advantage of the free membership (a $59.95 value) to FFChamps.com.

For you rookies out there, remember: you will be building your team to fit inside a $50,000 salary cap; players can be picked by more than one manager (i.e. Le’Veon Bell can show up on every roster); and once you select your team, you are not locked in, you can make changes right up until kickoff.

To help you set the optimal team, each week we look for those games that the odds makers in Vegas see as high scoring affairs, which means a lot of fantasy points should be racked up, and which should be low scoring games where the points will be hard to come by. 

Last week we recommended DeMarco Murray who came through nicely with 31.5 fantasy points and Terrance Williams (for a WR3 or Flex) who rocked it with two touchdowns and 25.7 points.  We also put Frank Gore in our high risk/high reward category as it seemed the 49ers had forgotten what it means to have a great running back and were not giving him the ball.  Well, the 49ers finally realized that Gore needs to be fed the ball and gave him 25 touches.  And guess what? Gore broke out big time for 174 combined yards and a touchdown and a big 27.4 points.  Keep an eye on him this week, as, at only $5,200, Gore has great potential and great value at home versus the Chiefs.

To check out the first article of this series for a complete description of the strategy: CLICK HERE

Here we go (remember the Dolphins and Raiders are on bye): Looking at Week Five, there is actually only one game that beat our 50 point over/under qualification.  Because of this, we will be looking at games with an over/under of 49 points or better -- here are the games that fall into our parameters: 

Over/Under with Positive Impact on Value: TARGET PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK

For our negative games we normally look for games under 42 points.  This week there are none that low, so we stretched our parameters slightly to 44 points and below.

Over/Under with Negative Impact on Value: AVOID PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK

Basic strategy with the above information is to look for studs and lower priced value in the “POSITIVE” games and look to avoid most but not all of the players in the “NEGATIVE” games.

Now with our tools (FFC Strength of Schedule, FF Champs Defense Stats Allowed , The FFCPI and the FFC Daily Fantasy Rank Tool) primed and ready to go, we can now review our target games and make some decisions and look for value:

POSITIVE GAMES:

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants:

Who would have thought two weeks ago that this game would have the highest Over/Under for the week.  Yes, the Falcons were putting up points, but the Giants were running around trying to figure out this thing called the West Coast Offense.  Well, the New York Football Giants seem to have realized what this offense can do and have put 75 total points on the scoreboard over the past two weeks and are facing an Atlanta defense that is giving up an average 276 yards through the air and 153 yards on the ground.

With 36 fantasy points last week (and an acceptable 17 points the week before), Eli Manning is looking good at only $7,500. With the fast start for the Giants last week versus the Redskins, Rashad Jennings was given most of the day off, but still managed 4.2 yards per carry on 13 attempts.

The Giants like to run the ball, and Jennings should get the majority of the work and could repeat his Week Three performance where he rumbled for 176 yards and a touchdown for a stellar 26.6 fantasy points.  For only $5,500 he is a steal.  Lock it up! 

Eli’s receiving core is rounding into shape, with the breakout Tight End Larry Donnell averaging 18 fantasy points this year, including his outstanding 30 point performance last week.  While we can’t predict that kind of monster performance, Donnell should be good for 6-7 catches for 70 yards and a TD, that’s close to 20 points, even at $5,700, that’s good value at only $285 per fantasy point.  Victor Cruz ($5,800) has averaged about 22+ points in the last two weeks and is definitely worth a look for WR2 or WR3 while Rueben Randle at $3,900 is a bit more of a risk with a 12+ FFPG over the last two weeks, but his low salary puts in the mix for WR3 or Flex.

On the Falcons’ side of the ball, the Giants have been middle of the pack versus RBs, and with the Falcons’ relative weakness at RB, Atlanta’s RBs should not be considered this week as there are better lower price options out there. 

Matt Ryan at $8,100 against a middling defense is an OK play, and Julio Jones will get his chances and he is hard to sit.  He could be a bit pricey at $8,000.  If you do decide to lock him up, you will need to counter his salary with some good low priced “steals”.  (For help here look for the FF Champs “Daily Fantasy: Best Buy/Over Priced”, published every Thursday, that will help guide you to the lower priced gems.)

While Jones may be too expensive, his receiving partner, Roddy White appears to be a steal at only $5,800.  Looking healthy, White had 14 targets last week and while he only had 4 receptions, his 73 yards and a touchdown got him to 17+ fantasy points.  White is a great value for your WR2.

Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos:

Both teams are coming off a bye week and players have had a chance to heal up from some bumps and bruises.  Unfortunately, Carson Palmer is still somewhat of a question mark.  Keep an eye on the injury report, since in daily fantasy we have right up until kickoff to swap players in and out, we can put Palmer in our lineup (a good value at $7,200), and on Sunday morning once we know his status, we can always drop in Philip Rivers ($7,000), Tony Romo ($7,000), Andy Dalton ($6,800).  I love Daily Fantasy…so much flexibility.

With a week more of rest, Andre Ellington is not showing up on the Injury report and against a Broncos defense which is not great versus RBs, especially RBs who catch passes, Ellington is looking good at only $5,600.  Of the two main Cardinals WRs, Michael Floyd at $5,300 is $100 cheaper than Larry Fitzgerald and is the obvious choice, averaging 14 fantasy points and coming off a 19 point performance versus the 49ers in week three.  Keep your eye on John Brown.  At $4,500 he could be an interesting sleeper for the WR3 or Flex spots, note his 2 TD, 21 fantasy point performance versus San Francisco.

Especially if Carson Palmer plays, but even if it is Drew Stanton, the Arizona Cardinals could be the team to” stack” this week to take you to that million dollar victory.  See these two articles - one about stacking in general and one specifically about stacking the Cardinals - for more information.

Peyton Manning is the most expensive player this week at $9,200.  He could be a bit too expensive, especially versus the Cardinals’ #2 defense versus QBs.  However, if you want him, go for it, but you will need to counter his salary with some good low priced “steals”.  (For help here look for the FF Champs “Daily Fantasy: Best Buy/Over Priced”, published every Thursday, that will help guide you to the lower priced gems.)

Even against a solid Arizona Cardinals defense, all of the Broncos “skill” players are good buys this week, with Monte Ball at $6,500 probably the biggest risk as he hasn’t quite had that big game yet.  He is still a top back and at $6,500, he could be a great RB2 or even Flex depending how your lineup fills out.  Demaryius Thomas ($7,400), Wes Welker ($5,500) and Emanuel Sanders ($5,100) are all starts, with perhaps, Sanders being the best buy with his 22 fantasy point average and the appearance of a real connection with Manning.  Even with Wes Welker back in week three, Sanders put up 29 fantasy points!!

Finally, Julius Thomas at $6,900 could be too expensive with the rest of the Tight Ends who are out there at a cheaper price.  After his huge game in Week One, he has tailed off, with 14 points in Week Two and 11 points in Week Three.  However, the Cardinals continue to be dismal versus the TE.  Hold off on selecting your TE until you have all your other players in place.  If you have the “cap” room, Thomas is definitely an option, but don’t force him into your lineup.

NEGATIVE GAMES: (Remember, a negative game does not mean that all players will stink and not put up fantasy numbers, it just means that there is generally better value to be had elsewhere.)

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers:

The Jets are terrible, and the San Diego Chargers Defense is legit, in the top 10 against RBs and WRs.  If Geno Smith was any good, the Chargers’ middle of the road defense versus QBs might be a cause for concern, but Smith seems lost.  Bottom line: Avoid any Jets player.  If you are in a real bind and are ok with 10 to 15 points, Chris Ivory at $3,100 is not a terrible play.

While the Las Vegas guys are probably right on the total points (around 43-44), that doesn’t mean this game is a total wash for Daily Fantasy.  It is entirely possible that a 34-10 score is possible with the Chargers putting a pounding on the Jets.  Philip Rivers and company are getting it done through the air and Rivers is probably a steal at $7,000, as are Keenan Allen at $5,800, Eddie Royal with Cheese at $4,400 and even Malcom Floyd at $3,000 (he had 13 fantasy points last week).

Keep Donald Brown at $5,400 on the bench.  He may be the only running back the Chargers have, but the Jets are actually pretty good versus the run and this season Brown is averaging only 2.0 yards per carry and only 6.0 yards per reception, for a whopping fantasy point average of 7.3 points.  For $5,400, that is not good, look elsewhere.

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions:

Wow, this game has all the earmarks of a 14-10 snoozer.   We have two solid defenses, a potentially not 100% WR Stud (Calvin Johnson), a, shall we say Journeyman QB (to be kind), taking over the Bills Offense (Kyle Orton), one dinged up RB (Joique Bell), one “which one will show up” RB (Reggie Bush), a backfield by committee (Spiller & Jackson) and a high-priced, on again, off again QB (Matthew Stafford).  This is not a recipe for Daily Fantasy success. 

Forget the Bills, even Sammy Watkins at $4,800 is a risk until we know whether Kyle Orton remembers how to throw the ball and CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are cannibalizing each other to such a degree that you just can’t have any faith how they will perform.  They are both about 12-14 point RBs, at $5,800 for Spiller and $4,500 for Jackson, there are many better options out there, especially against the tough against the run Lions defense.

On the Lions side of the ball, it’s all about Calvin Johnson, if he is 100%, he is a bargain at $8,200, and Stafford’s $8,800 salary becomes less onerous, but unless we know for sure, I would avoid these two.  Keep your eye on the injury report Sunday morning and remember we can always make last minute switches in Daily Fantasy.  I would also avoid Bush and Bell at $6,200 and $5,600, respectively.

On the plus side, Golden Tate is interesting at $4,900 as he showed last week with 22.6 fantasy points, and thanks to Lil’ Rufio and Joseph Fauria’s inability to make it down a flight of stairs, keep an eye on Eric Ebron at TE for only $3,000, they could be Stafford’s only viable weapons.

Well, that is it for this week, remember to do your research, look for more daily fantasy articles in the upcoming days, and good luck in big, huge, life changing Millionaire Maker Daily Fantasy Contest.  Remember $27 could change your life…that’s all it takes, one $27 entry and by around 1130pm on Monday, you could be a MILLIIONAIRE!!!

If you have any questions, comments or just want to talk fantasy, hit me up on Twitter or Facebook, you can use the links below to get in touch.

Good luck this weekend!!!

Beaudog

Woof!!