Daily Fantasy Week 8: Shootouts and Defensive Struggles

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Hi Daily Fantasy Veterans and Rookies,

Week 7 delivered another extraordinary and historic week and Draft Kings crowned another $1,000,000 winner.  Peyton Manning threw for 4 more TDs and stands atop the all-time touchdown list with 510, and Demarco Murray become the first running back in history to rush for over 100 in the first seven games of the season, surpassing the great Jim Brown.  In Daily Fantasy, Russell Wilson ran and passed his way to 43 points and Demaryius Thomas posted 40 points as he helped Peyton break the record.  RAYOFHOPE had both of these players in his lineup and they helped bring him home the $1,000,000 first prize.  Congratulation Ray!!!!!!! Enjoy those big bucks! 

Hopefully you had both these studs in your lineups too, but since this is Daily Fantasy, our teams that took us into the money are no more and we once again, will be building our team from the ground up. 

For three weeks now, $1,000,000 has been up for grabs at Draft Kings, and this week will be no different as once again you will have a shot at a cool million bucks in the Millionaire Maker contest at Draft Kings.  As with last week, FFChamps is again giving you an amazing offer, simply click on this link, register for an account and make a $25 deposit and you will receive a FREE $27 entry into the Millionaire Maker contest and a FREE membership (a $59.95 value) to FFChamps.com 

To help you set the optimal team (and hopefully take home the MILLION BUCKS) each week we look for those games that the odds makers in Vegas see as high scoring affairs, which means a lot of fantasy points should be racked up, and which should be low scoring games where the points will be hard to come by. 

Last week, the game with the highest Over/Under the 49ers @ Broncos game at 50 points and boy did this game deliver: Peyton Manning – 31.6 points; Ronnie Hillman – 26.3; Demaryius Thomas – 40.1; and even Wes Welker at $3,700 last week delivered with 14.0 points.

To check out the first article of this series for a complete description of the strategy: CLICK HERE

Our bye week teams this week are the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. 

Here we go: Looking at Week Eight, there are many games that reach our 50 point over/under threshold. 

Over/Under with Positive Impact on Value: TARGET PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK

And if you like to play the contests that include the Thursday Night Game:

For our negative games for games we look for games under 42 points.

Over/Under with Negative Impact on Value: AVOID PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK

Basic strategy with the above information is to look for studs and lower priced value in the “POSITIVE” games and look to avoid most but not all of the players in the “NEGATIVE” games.

Now with our tools (FFC Strength of Schedule, FF Champs Defense Stats Allowed , The FFCPI and the FFC Daily Fantasy Rank Tool) primed and ready to go, we can now review our target games and make some decisions and look for value:

POSITIVE GAMES:

Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints:

This game has all the earmarks of a monster fantasy point generator.

All of the Packers are solid plays, even Aaron Rodgers despite his high $9,000 price tag.  In his last 4 games he has thrown for 13 touchdowns with no interceptions, and if you take out the Vikings game that he came out of early since the Packers were up so big, he is averaging over 27 FFPG.  While Rodgers may be a no brainer, the real values come in his wide receivers.  Despite their performances over the past few weeks, the Packers WRs are priced relatively inexpensively: Jordy Nelson (23.3 FFPG) @ $7,800 and Randall Cobb (19.6) @ $7,500.  Even Davante Adams who has put up almost 23 points in the last two weeks is interesting for a WR3 or Flex at $3,500.

While Eddie Lacy has been somewhat of a disappointment this year as James Starks has definitely cut into his carries, this week may see Starks somewhat limited due to an ankle injury he sustained last week.  Watch the injury report if Starks remains questionable and does not appear to be going to get his normal workload, Lacy becomes much more interesting at $5,200.  He is not a lock this week, but should be a solid performer at a very reasonable price.

For the Saints, the Packers have been stingy versus QBs, allowing a maximum of 17 fantasy points to QBs through the first 7 weeks.  Drew Brees has been consistent this year with a 21 FFPG so far.  At $8,100, he is not a bad option and he could have a breakout game at home as the Saints will most definitely be throwing the ball to keep up with the Packers, especially with the injuries in their backfield.

As Brees will undoubtedly be throwing the ball, his two main targets, Marques Colston ($5,000) and Brandin Cooks ($4,700) are excellent value.  Colston is coming off a 20 point game last week, and while Cooks has been up and down this season, the rookie is always capable of putting up a big game, just as he did in week one when he posted 22.5 fantasy points. 

This is going to be a passing game so I would avoid the mess that is the Saints backfield.  Thomas is hurt, Ingram did nothing last week after coming back from his hand injury and then left the game with some sort of shoulder injury.  Khiry Robinson had his shot and did not get it done and Cadet is still an unknown.  Stay away.

If this was a normal season, all I would be talking about here is getting Jimmy Graham in your lineup no matter the cost.  However, Graham is hurt and based on his zero catch on two targets performance last week he can probably not be counted on for a standout performance this week.  It should also be noted that the Packers are solid versus the TE position.  His salary is very low for Jimmy Graham at $5,600, so the impulse might be there to take a shot.  Graham should only be in your lineup if the injury report and game day reports have him at or close to 100%, otherwise look elsewhere.

Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots:

The Bears are a very mediocre defense and the Patriots seem to have found their stride, averaging 35 points over the past three weeks.

For the Patriots, Tom Brady with a 25.7 average FFPG over the past 3 weeks and a $7,200 salary is an excellent start this week at home.  His partner in crime, Rob Gronkowski is rounding into shape, has averaged 6 receptions the last 3 weeks with an 18 average FFPG over that same stretch.  He may be a bit expensive at $5,600, but against the Bears a Brady/Gronk stack could be a winning formula for only $12,800. 

At RB, without Ridley, Shane Vereen proved he could get the job done with a 28 point performance last week against a tough NY Jets run defense.  At $6,200, Vereen should be considered especially with his involvement in the passing game in Draft Kings’ PPR format.

At WR, Julian Edelman has cooled off since his hot start, but at $4,600, Brady’s favorite target should not be overlooked this week.  Brandon LaFell is priced at $4,800 and could be an OK start this week.  However, with LaFell and Edelman essentially priced the same, but in Draft Kings’ PPR format I would lean towards Edelman this week.

The Bears did not have a great game last week, and Matt Forte still put up 29 fantasy points.  Add to this the fact that the Patriots are really bad versus RBs, especially in the receiving game, and Matt Forte, even at $8,800 becomes a must start.  Build your team around this dynamic running back.

The Patriots are stingy against the pass, ranked #1, allowing only 208 yards per game.  This could mean that Jay Cutler ($7,000), Brandon Marshall ($6,100), Alshon Jeffrey ($6,000) and Martellus Bennett ($5,200) could be in for a rough day.  The Vegas boys see this as a high scoring game, but it could easily be Patriots 35 – Bears 17, with Forte getting the scores and Cutler and company laying a big goose egg.  Alshon Jeffrey seems to be the most consistent of this group, and aside from Forte, he would be the Bear I would get in my lineup.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys:

As with the game above, Vegas has this as a 50 point game, but it could be a huge blowout with Dallas scoring all the points and the Redskins putting up few points and hence few fantasy points.  While some Redskins may be worth a look, I would concentrate on the Dallas playmakers in this game.

First of all, the Redskins pass defense is terrible.  Start Dez Bryant at only $6,900. Let me repeat that, START DEZ BRYANT!! Terrance Williams is a nice flex play at only $4,700 (he has 4 TDs in the past 4 games).  Since week four, Tony Romo has been a consistent 20 or so point QB, with 8 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.  His price of $7,400, puts him in the very affordable range and against the Redskins, he could be a real bargain if he lights it up.

Then there is Demarco Murray.  The Redskins have been solid against the run allowing an average of 99 yards per game.  Murray has been getting the work, he has run for at least 100 yards in every game this season, I don’t see the Redskins slowing him down.  He is expensive at $8,600, but if you want to build your team around him, you would not get an argument from me.

On the Redskins side of the ball, Colt McCoy should stay on your bench.  Alfred Morris is worth a look at $4,200 but he needs to get into the end zone.  Wide Receivers DeSean Jackson @ $5,700 and Pierre Garcon @ $5,200 are not bad options for your “cash” games (head to head and 50/50).  Given the way the Cowboys have been playing and with McCoy throwing them the ball, they are more likely to get 10-15 points, than blow it up for the 25+ points you need for the Guaranteed Prize Pool contests.

The Cowboys are the worst team against the TE, and with Jordan Reed back, and with McCoy looking for a security blanket, Reed’s $4,000 salary looks like a real bargain, and perhaps the best Redskins player to own this week.

Before moving onto the negative games, there is one more game to mention, the Thursday Night Game between the San Diego Chargers and the Denver Broncos (Over/Under 51). 

Since this is the Thursday Night Game, these players can only be used in contests that include this game.  These contests are usually a bit smaller, but there is still good money to be made.

Bottom line on this game: USE ALL THE DENVER PLAYERS!!!!!  Peyton Manning and the Broncos are working like a will oiled machine and the Chargers should not be able to stop the Broncos at home at Mile High. One note on Ronnie Hillman ($4,900), while the Chargers are solid against the run, they are dead last against RBs in the passing game.  Hillman caught 4 passes last week on his way to a 26 fantasy point week.  At his price he is a great play in the Flex.

For the Chargers, Philip Rivers has gotten it done, and with having to keep up with Peyton, Rivers could put up huge numbers.  His receivers, Allen, Floyd and Royal, are all in the low $4,000s and all have value as WR3 or Flex in this high-scoring matchup.  Brandon Oliver probably has one more week of the backfield to himself before Ryan Matthews returns, but in a game where points are flying, the Chargers may have to abandon the run, so his salary might be a bit high.  Despite his higher price, Antonio Gates at $5,600 could be the play.

Now, on to the games to avoid:

NEGATIVE GAMES: (Remember, a negative game does not mean that all players will stink and not put up fantasy numbers, it just means that there is generally better value to be had elsewhere)

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

If this game was in Minnesota, it would probably be a higher scoring game.  But at home the Buccaneers have been a more solid defense (the week 6 game versus the Ravens, notwithstanding), and the Vikings defense is also solid. 

Most of the players are inexpensive in the game, but aside from possibly Jerick McKinnon at $4,900, there are other players in the same price range available in games that are not shaping up to a defensive game with few fantasy point available.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets:

The Jets run defense is legit, so leave the mess that is the Bills backfield on the bench, yes they are cheap, but if the Jets defense comes to play, they could produce like cheap RBs, i.e. fewer than 10 fantasy points. 

The Jets can be had through the air, so Sammy Watkins does look good at $5,700, he and Orton definitely seem to have developed a rapport and Watkins could light it up again this week.  Orton is also an option at $6,300, if you want to go cheap at QB and stack up with higher priced RBs and WRs.

Like the Jets, the Bills are extremely strong versus the run, having allowed only 442 rushing yards this season and zero touchdowns to RBs.  At $5,000 versus this defense, Chris Ivory is not an option this week.  Geno Smith has not topped 20 fantasy points this season, not worth his $5,700 salary.  However, like the Jets, the Bills can be had through the air (ranked 24^th versus WRs), making Eric Decker at $4,600 an interesting play.  There is risk here, since he does have Geno throwing him the ball, but with Percy Harvin adding another weapon in the passing game, Decker could see less double coverage and rack up some points versus the Bills porous secondary. 

That leaves Percy Harvin to consider.  Fantasy Players have been waiting all season for Harvin to “go off”, is this the week?  I honestly don’t know, but at $4,100, if you are stacked up everywhere else and have $4,100 left for a WR3 or Flex he could be just the right High Risk/High Reward player to put in your lineup in the Guaranteed Prize Pool contests.

Well, that is it for this week, remember to do your research, look for more daily fantasy articles in the upcoming days, and good luck in big, huge, life changing Millionaire Maker Daily Fantasy Contest.  Remember with this offer, all you need do is make a $25 deposit that you can use any way you like and you get a FREE $27 entry and with that entry by around 1130pm on Monday, you could be a MILLIIONAIRE!!!

If you have any questions, comments or just want to talk fantasy, hit me up on Twitter or Facebook, you can use the links below to get in touch.

Good luck this weekend!!!

Beaudog

Woof!!