Daily Fantasy Week 9: Shootouts and Defensive Struggles

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Hi Daily Fantasy Veterans and Rookies,

Week 8 delivered another extraordinary week and Draft Kings crowned another $1,000,000 winner whose lineup registered more than 290 fantasy points. Leav11 had both Tom Brady and Ron Gronkowski who lit it up for 37 and 45 points, respectively, while also managing to include Brandon LaFell, Ahmad Bradshaw, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin and Brandin Cooks.  Great job, Leav11.  Congratulations on your big Million Dollar win!!!! 

Hopefully you had most or at least some of these studs in your lineups too, but since this is Daily Fantasy, our teams that took us into the money are no more and we once again, will be building our team from the ground up. 

To help you set the optimal team (and hopefully take home the MILLION BUCKS) each week we look for those games that the odds makers in Vegas see as high scoring affairs, which means a lot of fantasy points should be racked  up, and which should be low scoring games where the points will be hard to come by. 

Last week, the highest Over/Under games were the Packers/Saints, followed by the Bears/Patriots and the Redskins/Cowboys.  Look at the point totals from these games:  Randall Cobb – 26.6; Brandin Cooks – 27.8; Eddie Lacy – 29.2; Drew Brees – 28.0; Tom Brady – 37.2; Ron Gronkowski – 44.9; Brandon LaFell – 32.4 and DeMarco Murray – 28.1.

To check out the first article of this series for a complete description of the strategy: CLICK HERE

We have a total of six teams on bye this week with some major Fantasy Studs, so it will be even more important this week to find those games where a ton of points will be scored and where you might find the relatively lower priced player (like LaFell was last week – only $4,800) who could blow up and take your roster to victory.  Teams on bye this week are: Titans, Packers, Bills, Falcons, Bears and Lions.

Here we go: Looking at Week Nine, there are two games that reach our 50 point over/under threshold. 

Over/Under with Positive Impact on Value: TARGET PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK

For our negative game(s) we look for games under 42 points.

Over/Under with Negative Impact on Value: AVOID PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK

Basic strategy with the above information is to look for studs and lower priced value in the “POSITIVE” games and look to avoid most but not all of the players in the “NEGATIVE” games.

Now with our tools (FFC Strength of Schedule, FF Champs Defense Stats Allowed , The FFCPI and the FFC Daily Fantasy Rank Tool) primed and ready to go, we can now review our target games and make some decisions and look for value:

POSITIVE GAMES:

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots:

This game has all the earmarks of a monster fantasy point generator.  Last week both these teams were involved in games that delivered a ton of points: Denver 35 Chargers 21; and Patriots 51 Chicago 23.

Bottom line here is PLAY EVERYONE!!!  Manning, Demaryius, Julius, Sanders, Hillman, Brady, Gronk, and LaFell.  Because all of these players had big performances in week eight their pricing has skyrocketed and it will be difficult to be able to play all of them. 

Manning is $9,800 so Brady at “only” $8,400 looks to be the better deal as they should post similar numbers.  Gronk is pricy at $7,600, but Julius Thomas is only $5,600 and after two sub-par weeks he should be due for a break out, especially with the Patriots being somewhat weak against the TE, so far this season they are giving up the 9^th most points to opposing TEs. 

An interesting play might be to lock up Brady and Orange Julius for a total of only $14,000 for the two players.  This way you get the benefit of Brady throwing TDs to Gronk and Julius Thomas receiving TDs from Manning.

At $6,000, LaFell might be priced a bit high, but he has definitely put himself on Brady’s radar and even if he gets half the production he had last week, say 6 catches for 60 yards and a TD, that is 18 fantasy points and a potential CPP of $333.  Not bad and a Brady/LaFell stack is affordable at $14,400.

Another must start player is Ronnie Hillman.  At only $5,600, Hillman is a no brainer.  The Patriots gave up 34 fantasy points to Forte last week and are giving up the 6^th most points to RBs based on rushing and the 2^nd most points to RBs in the pass game.  Hillman has proved he fits in the Broncos offense and against the Patriots weak defense, he should light it up.

The Broncos are the top ranked team against the rush so I would avoid the headache that is Belichick and his running back antics, however when it comes to RBs in the passing attack the Broncos are giving up the 12^th most points, so Shane Vereen at $4,600 does become interesting.  Drop him in your flex spot and then set up the rest of your lineup with the players you want, if he still fits in your salary cap keep him there.  If you find you are over-budget, there are other less expensive options for your flex.

Of course Demaryius Thomas ($9,000) and Emmanuel Sanders ($8,000) must be considered.  It will be tough to stack either one with Manning and his $9,800 salary.  If you want these players in your lineup you will most likely have to look for a lower priced QB (with good upside) to pair with them.  Strangely enough this QB could be Manning’s brother, Eli, priced at only $7,300 and also playing in a 50+ over/under game versus the Colts on Monday night.

This brings us finally to two low priced WRs who have great name recognition but who have not been putting up huge numbers lately: Julian Edelman @ $4,100 and Wes Welker @ $3,600.  Edelman has just not gotten into the end zone and has seen his receptions shrink over the last three weeks (9 in week six, 4 in week seven and only 1 in week eight, including 2 “bad” drops).  Welker meanwhile seems to have dropped out of the mainstream of the Broncos’ offense, especially with Sanders running circles around opposing defenses.  He is averaging only 8.6 FFPG and against a tough Patriots pass defense, ranked second versus WRs, Welker (and Edelman for that matter) becomes an extremely, extremely high risk play, with a relatively low ceiling of perhaps 15 points. 

Obviously, stay away from the defenses in this game.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants:

Both defenses here are middle of the road, so there should be plenty of room for the offenses to light it up.  I also like this game as it affords the opportunity to have some “Monday Night Juice”, always fun!

Looking at the Colts, there are many players with good value in this expected high-scoring game.  Unfortunately Andrew Luck’s $10,000 salary almost prices him out of the equation.  Obviously a Stud, Luck can be considered in any lineup, but at 20% of our budget, I see him as too highly priced.

While Luck may be too expensive, there are several good “buys” on the Colts.  With the Giants giving up the 2^nd most points to RBs in the passing game and 13^th against the run, Ahmed Bradshaw is very attractive at $5,800; his value will only improve if someone can convince Pagano to keep Trent Richardson on the sidelines.

At WR, TY Hilton is solid at $8,100 and if Reggie Wayne does not make it back this week, Donte Moncrief becomes extremely attractive at only $5,300.  His 12 targets indicates he has Luck’s trust and even if Wayne is on the field, he probably will not be 100%, and Montcrief  should continue to get some play and be worth a WR3 slot.

Finally for the Colts, at TE, Dwayne Allen @ $4,100 is a good option.  The Giants are giving up the 12^th most fantasy points to TEs, and Allen, with a touchdown in 6 of 8 games, should easily match his 11 point FFPG average and could break out for a 20 point game.

On the Giants side of the ball, Eli Manning @$7,300 is nicely priced and could be that mid-range QB to slot in so our lineup can afford some of the higher priced players in the Bronco/Patriot game, or someone like Antonio Brown, who is just a Beast!  Even with the disaster versus the Eagles, Eli is averaging almost 18 FFPG, and bounced back nicely versus the Cowboys the next week with a 23 point performance.  The Colts are solid against QBs, so Eli is not a sure thing, but his ceiling is high (see Big Ben’s game last week against this same Colts team) and the Colts do give up more fantasy points to QBs on the road. 

Rashad Jennings is mostly likely a no-go so Andre Williams will get the bulk of the carries.  Even at $3,500, he may not be great value.  Since he got the starting job, Williams has been very up and down after a 16 point performance versus Atlanta, he has followed up with very poor, 6 and 5 point performances.  In a game where the Giants will most likely have to pass to keep up with Luck and the Colts, Williams should probably be kept on your bench.

On the other hand the Giants can provide our lineups with some high upside mid-range WRs.  Odel Beckham @ $5,000 and Rueben Randle @ $5,400 both provide good value and in this potential shootout both could exceed their average performances so far this year and put up 20 point games.

The Colts are giving up the 4^th most points to TEs; they even gave up a TD to Heath Miller!!  Larry Donnell bounced back from two sub-par games in week seven with 7 catches for 90 yards, once again becoming one of Eli’s favorite targets.  With Victor Cruz gone from the equation, Eli should continue to look for his big TE against a defense that just doesn’t know how to defend against them.  At $4,600, Donnell should help drive our lineup to the top, especially if Donnell returns to the end zone. 

Now, on to the games to avoid:

NEGATIVE GAMES: (Remember, a negative game does not mean that all players will stink and not put up fantasy numbers, it just means that there is generally better value to be had elsewhere)

We only have one game in this category this week, and it shapes up into a real stinker.

New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs:

Not only are the Jets in complete disarray, by the way who is the starting quarterback anyway? But they have to play in ARROWHEAD this week.  In the 3 games at Arrowhead, the Chiefs defense has only allowed an average of less than 16 points (real not fantasy) per game (a total of 5 TDs, none rushing), which puts the entire Jets offense, including Chris Ivory, in the “no play” category.

For the Chiefs, Alex Smith is banged up so he and his WRs are not good plays this week, which puts Jamaal Charles front and center at $7,100.  Last week Charles put up 27 fantasy points in what amounted to 3 quarters and should be able to put up a similar performance again this week against a Jets team that has no direction and could totally implode.  I am not all-in with Charles but he should have a solid game and could be a good player to roster for your cash contests (H2H and 50/50), I would not use him in the GPPs as I think his upside is somewhat limited by the nature of the game.

I do really like the Chiefs D/ST this week however.  Last week they posted 19 points at Arrowhead versus the Rams, the Jets should be so much more fodder for this opportunistic defense and 15 fantasy points is not out of the question, a good deal for only $3,300.

Well, that is it for this week, remember to do your research, look for more daily fantasy articles in the upcoming days, and good luck in big, huge, life changing Millionaire Maker Daily Fantasy Contest.  Remember with this offer, all you need do is make a $25 deposit that you can use any way you like and you get a FREE $27 entry and with that entry by around 1130pm on Monday, you could be a MILLIIONAIRE!!!

If you have any questions, comments or just want to talk fantasy, hit me up on Twitter (@Beaudog2).

Good luck this weekend!!!

Beaudog

Woof!!