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Showing posts with label Dame's. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dame's. Show all posts
Wednesday, 22 October 2014
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Predicting Notre Dame's Record If They Played In The SEC West

The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame are one of the most polarizing teams in all of college football and the world of sports as a whole. The Irish are coming off their first loss of the 2014 season in a classic battle with number two Florida State.

The Seminoles defeated Notre Dame 31-27 in a game that went down to the last play. The loss hurt Notre Dame, but didn’t eliminate them from playoff contention because of how competitive they appeared against the defending national champions.

The Irish sit at 6-1 with five games remaining in their 2014 campaign. Notre Dame still has two PAC 12 powers to battle with this season when they face Arizona State and Southern California. The Irish are legit contenders this season and if they find a way to finish the regular season 11-1 they will likely be in the first annual College Football Playoff.

The Irish are a good team this year now that starting quarterback Everett Golson has returned from his year off due to academic issues. The Irish play a respectful schedule every year, but let’s play a hypothetical game and ask what if Notre Dame played in the SEC and more specifically the SEC West?

I have been on record as calling this year’s SEC West division the greatest division in college football history. I feel the depth of this division from top to bottom in terms of competiveness, parity and talent is unmatched. The SEC West has already begun to beat up on each other, but how would Notre Dame stack up in this 2014 SEC West?

If Notre Dame played in the SEC West this season what team would they honestly be better than?

We will start with the Mississippi schools. The Ole Miss Rebels and Mississippi State Bulldogs are having arguably the greatest years in their program’s history as a football program. I believe both Mississippi State and Ole Miss would defeat Notre Dame.

These games would be tight depending on whether the game was played in Notre Dame or in the home stadiums of Mississippi State and Ole Miss. For argument sake, we will imagine all of these games are played at a neutral site.

If Notre Dame played in the SEC West they would also have to compete against Auburn and Alabama in a year where both are national title worthy. Alabama is coming off a beat down of Texas A&M 59-0 this past weekend. If Alabama played to that level against Notre Dame this season the outcome could be much the same.

Notre Dame against Auburn would also be a challenge because of the speed at which the Tigers play offense. They have athletes all over the field and run Gus Malzahn’s offense at a tempo that is unrivaled by any other team in college football. The Irish would have a tough time keeping up with the speed of Auburn and would likely fall apart in the second half.

So, the top four teams in the SEC west of Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama and Auburn all would have the upper hand against Notre Dame this season. The SEC West is a brutal road this season and for teams like Notre Dame, Florida State and Oregon that are top level teams elsewhere the journey to making the playoff this season would be much more difficult if they played in the SEC West.

The bottom three teams in the SEC West this season appear to be LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M. I feel Notre Dame could win two out of three against these teams, but even that would be tough in my mind.

The Aggies appear to be falling part, but it’s easy to forget their three losses have all come to three teams currently in the top five of the AP Poll. Think about that for a minute, the Aggies have three losses and they are to the number one, three and four team in the country.

I believe the Aggies are better than what they showed this past Saturday against Alabama and would give Notre Dame all they wanted and more. The Aggies pass offense would challenge an Irish secondary that doesn’t get tested often in their schedule this season.

The other two teams in the SEC West, being LSU and Arkansas, would give the Irish problems as well. The LSU Tigers are currently 6-2 and appear to be improving by the week. The Tigers of LSU lost to the Auburn Tigers 41-7 earlier this month, but have vastly improved since then.

I believe LSU would play Notre Dame in a classic battle much like Florida State did this past weekend. If the LSU defense was at their typical top notch level they would defeat Notre Dame easily this season.

Last but not least we have the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Razorbacks haven’t won an SEC game since the 2012 season. They have struggled against SEC competition, but are still a potentially top 25 team in the nation this year because of their running game.

The Razorbacks went on the road to Lubbock, Texas to face Texas Tech and won handily earlier this season thanks to that running game. They physically manhandled Texas Tech on both sides of the ball and proved to be a mismatch for the Red Raiders.

So, I feel Notre Dame would go 4-4 or 5-3 at best if they played in the SEC West this season. I feel this is a combination of an over ranked team in Notre Dame, but more importantly how dominant the SEC West is this season.

I believe other top teams across the country such as Florida State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State and Michigan State would also have the same difficulties in the SEC West this season.

The Irish, I feel, would finish a 12 game schedule of four nonconference games and eight SEC games with a record of 7-5 or 8-4 at best. Notre Dame and all other teams throughout the country this season should be thankful they are not a part of the SEC West this season because of the extreme depth and talent.

Notre Dame is a legit contender in 2014, but if they happen to make the first annual College Football Playoff this year and have to face an SEC West team, the Irish will endure their share of problems.

The SEC West has four of the top five teams in the country and it’s well deserved. They are dominant, strong, aggressive and the best of the best. The SEC is king of college football and the SEC West alone would be the best set of teams in the land. 2014 is the year of the SEC West and it’s not even close.






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Las Vegas Odds Gone Wrong On Notre Dame's Season

 

In early June, the Las Vegas oddsmakers released their opening lines for Notre Dame's 2014 season- much to the surprise of many considering the despair on several games.

The obvious gaps that jumped off the page were the 21 point spread over Purdue and of course the underdog canyon of +24 to defending national champs Florida State.

Also of concern and foder for debate for many, was placing the Irish in the underdog role in 4 games at a combined spread of 44.5 points.

That would place the Irish on the negative in each by 11 points, or nearly 2 touchdowns.

Someone forgot to do their homework or simply understand the power the Irish bring to the table regardless of who they face, or the perception heading into each season. The Irish face teams that always play up to them- like Purdue. And in any year, Notre Dame has been known to lose to a Tulsa and wax a top ranked Sooner team in Norman.

Those that follow the Irish tooth and nail, from National Signing Day to the Blue and Gold game- would obviously have a little more input to argue odds and the underdog role. But this year's line's merited some concern if you were a betting person and you relied solely on lines and didn't do a little homework.

And even though Notre Dame had a few kinks to work out, talent alone existed and a 2 loss season was possible and well within reach. The defense was a question mark under newly acquired Brian VanGorder, but most saw the raw talent and possibility several highly sought after incoming freshman could play this year.

And of major importance in all this remains the item of the 5 players suspended on the year. 2 players projected to play major roles in the success the Irish could have this season.

KeiVarae Russell and Davaris Daniels were to be key contributors at their respective positions. Russell was toughted as one of the top corners in the nation and Daniels was coming off a big year and looked to spark an uptick in offensive output with the return of Everett Golson.

The Irish have managed without these players fairly well, but the possibilities for the entire year with atleast Daniels and Russell and the addition of Ishaq Williams would have added more depth and options overall.

With Russell in the lineup against the Noles, assuming he remained healthy all year- Everett Golson's heroics would have never been of concern late or even needed.

Here are the opening lines going into this season and the results up to the Florida State game with the final spread difference: 

Aug. 30(-21) Rice

Home openers for any college powerhouse generally means a soft win or someone your fans get to see throttled to kick the season off. Heading into 2014, the Irish would face one of few double digit win teams from 2013-the Rice Owls. About the only thing uncertain during this game was if it would pour down rain early or at all. Some rain fell late, as did Rice.

Final Score: ND 48 Rice 17 (cover +10)

Sept. 6 (-3) Michigan

The rivalry came to end for a short window, as did the Wolverine season. Vegas got it's first mega miss, although no person called this blowout. Notre Dame not only would cover, but also had a late pick 6 absolved with a late flag- something that would rear itself later in the season.

Final Score: ND 31 Michigan 0 (cover + 28)

Sept. 13 (-21) vs. Purdue

The in-state rival and Shamrock Series contest turned out like many Irish-Boilermaker games lately. Although many may have seen the Irish as heavy favorites, the first head scratching line of the year appears here. Looking at history, many would understand that Purdue has played the Irish tough over the years. And -21 was steep no matter the circumstances. The game was close from start to finish, and the Irish would not cover. 

Final Score: ND 30 Purdue 14 (no cover -5)

Sept. 27 (-5.5) vs. Syracuse

Another contest where Notre Dame would normally run away from a team like Syracuse. Most would remember the last time the two met at the end of Charlie Weis's career. The Orange pulled off the upset and all-world recruit Manti Teo received a few snowballs unintentionally from angry fans. No snow this evening.

Final Score: ND 31 Syracuse 15 (cover +10.5)

Oct. 4 (+6) Stanford

In what was to be Notre Dame's 1st loss in 2014, the magic of Everett Golson salvaged the season for the Irish with a late touchdown to tight end Ben Koyack. A cold, rainy day saw the traditional rivals spar like Ali and Frazier. Notre Dame would evade the defeat, and erase the spread altogether.

Final Score: ND 17 Stanford 14 (beat the spread +9)

Oct. 11 (-2.5) North Carolina

If looking ahead could ever be eraticated from our vocabulary, this game didn't help. Or did it? The Tar Heels caught the Irish in a perfect spot and played possibly their best game of the year. Notre Dame had trouble all day stopping North Carolina, but the Tar Heels equally couldn't adjust to the Irish offense. Some late gimme's had by the Heels made the final appear closer, but this was over mid 4th quarter. It may have been that early morning bucket of cold water for the Irish.

Final Score: ND 50 North Carolina 43 (cover +4.5)

Oct. 18 (+24) at FSU

And here we are: the big one. This was never supposed to be close, and for that matter- a win for the Irish. Perhaps one of the most absurd lines in recent memory, someone either overestimated the power of the champs or failed to scope out the Irish within reason. What turned out to be the the greatest game of the year in college football, and an instant classic- the Irish had a late flag negate a remarkable drive by Golson to pull off the upset. While the smoke is still hanging over the decisions made by the refs, Notre Dame stamped itself as a team to contend for a final playoff spot.

Final Score: ND 27 FSU 31(cover +20)

Plus/+ 77 Overall

Heading into 2014:

-Notre Dame overall was a -23 favorite combining all closing lines of 7 games

-Notre Dame would/could have been(based on closing lines) a 6 point favorite in each game

-Notre Dame thus far (based on actual results) would be an 11 point favorite in all 7 games

 

Remaining Games:
 Nov. 1 (-3) at Navy
Nov. 8 (+4.5) at Arizona State
Nov. 15 (-8) Northwestern
Nov. 22 (-8) Louisville
Nov. 29 (+10) at USC

Out of the remaining games for the Irish this season, the 1 game that will stay close where lines are concerned is the Arizona State game on the road. Should the Irish remain healthy, and the Sun Devils get back Taylor Kelly- this line should remain the same or go down. The road slugfest against the Noles will factor into the opinion that Notre Dame is a good road team no matter the venue- and this will be some venue. That result(Florida State) will keep the line from trending up in favor of Arizona State- but they could remain the favorite.

The USC game will hinge entirely on where Notre Dame is. USC remains an up and down team, and more drama has engulfed the Trojans with former player Lendall White disrupting, or attempting to impede- anything Pat Haden is trying to achieve. His Twiiter comments won't detract from the actual ongoins within the program, but with the NCAA infractions coming to a close and an end in sight- the last thing USC needs is outside interference at any magnitude. Expect USC to put it all together, and if the Irish come in to L.A. having won their last 4, the line should sway in favor of the Irish- but not much. USC by 10 will not remain.

The ending lines of Navy and Northwestern should rise.

Louisville is scary today. A tough defense coming into South Bend, on senior day- stinks on ice. It may go down, but assured will not rise. Weather could factor into how big a favorite the Irish are with the late November date.






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Predicting Notre Dame's Record If They Played In The SEC West

The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame are one of the most polarizing teams in all of college football and the world of sports as a whole. The Irish are coming off their first loss of the 2014 season in a classic battle with number two Florida State.

The Seminoles defeated Notre Dame 31-27 in a game that went down to the last play. The loss hurt Notre Dame, but didn’t eliminate them from playoff contention because of how competitive they appeared against the defending national champions.

The Irish sit at 6-1 with five games remaining in their 2014 campaign. Notre Dame still has two PAC 12 powers to battle with this season when they face Arizona State and Southern California. The Irish are legit contenders this season and if they find a way to finish the regular season 11-1 they will likely be in the first annual College Football Playoff.

The Irish are a good team this year now that starting quarterback Everett Golson has returned from his year off due to academic issues. The Irish play a respectful schedule every year, but let’s play a hypothetical game and ask what if Notre Dame played in the SEC and more specifically the SEC West?

I have been on record as calling this year’s SEC West division the greatest division in college football history. I feel the depth of this division from top to bottom in terms of competiveness, parity and talent is unmatched. The SEC West has already begun to beat up on each other, but how would Notre Dame stack up in this 2014 SEC West?

If Notre Dame played in the SEC West this season what team would they honestly be better than?

We will start with the Mississippi schools. The Ole Miss Rebels and Mississippi State Bulldogs are having arguably the greatest years in their program’s history as a football program. I believe both Mississippi State and Ole Miss would defeat Notre Dame.

These games would be tight depending on whether the game was played in Notre Dame or in the home stadiums of Mississippi State and Ole Miss. For argument sake, we will imagine all of these games are played at a neutral site.

If Notre Dame played in the SEC West they would also have to compete against Auburn and Alabama in a year where both are national title worthy. Alabama is coming off a beat down of Texas A&M 59-0 this past weekend. If Alabama played to that level against Notre Dame this season the outcome could be much the same.

Notre Dame against Auburn would also be a challenge because of the speed at which the Tigers play offense. They have athletes all over the field and run Gus Malzahn’s offense at a tempo that is unrivaled by any other team in college football. The Irish would have a tough time keeping up with the speed of Auburn and would likely fall apart in the second half.

So, the top four teams in the SEC west of Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama and Auburn all would have the upper hand against Notre Dame this season. The SEC West is a brutal road this season and for teams like Notre Dame, Florida State and Oregon that are top level teams elsewhere the journey to making the playoff this season would be much more difficult if they played in the SEC West.

The bottom three teams in the SEC West this season appear to be LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M. I feel Notre Dame could win two out of three against these teams, but even that would be tough in my mind.

The Aggies appear to be falling part, but it’s easy to forget their three losses have all come to three teams currently in the top five of the AP Poll. Think about that for a minute, the Aggies have three losses and they are to the number one, three and four team in the country.

I believe the Aggies are better than what they showed this past Saturday against Alabama and would give Notre Dame all they wanted and more. The Aggies pass offense would challenge an Irish secondary that doesn’t get tested often in their schedule this season.

The other two teams in the SEC West, being LSU and Arkansas, would give the Irish problems as well. The LSU Tigers are currently 6-2 and appear to be improving by the week. The Tigers of LSU lost to the Auburn Tigers 41-7 earlier this month, but have vastly improved since then.

I believe LSU would play Notre Dame in a classic battle much like Florida State did this past weekend. If the LSU defense was at their typical top notch level they would defeat Notre Dame easily this season.

Last but not least we have the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Razorbacks haven’t won an SEC game since the 2012 season. They have struggled against SEC competition, but are still a potentially top 25 team in the nation this year because of their running game.

The Razorbacks went on the road to Lubbock, Texas to face Texas Tech and won handily earlier this season thanks to that running game. They physically manhandled Texas Tech on both sides of the ball and proved to be a mismatch for the Red Raiders.

So, I feel Notre Dame would go 4-4 or 5-3 at best if they played in the SEC West this season. I feel this is a combination of an over ranked team in Notre Dame, but more importantly how dominant the SEC West is this season.

I believe other top teams across the country such as Florida State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State and Michigan State would also have the same difficulties in the SEC West this season.

The Irish, I feel, would finish a 12 game schedule of four nonconference games and eight SEC games with a record of 7-5 or 8-4 at best. Notre Dame and all other teams throughout the country this season should be thankful they are not a part of the SEC West this season because of the extreme depth and talent.

Notre Dame is a legit contender in 2014, but if they happen to make the first annual College Football Playoff this year and have to face an SEC West team, the Irish will endure their share of problems.

The SEC West has four of the top five teams in the country and it’s well deserved. They are dominant, strong, aggressive and the best of the best. The SEC is king of college football and the SEC West alone would be the best set of teams in the land. 2014 is the year of the SEC West and it’s not even close.






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Las Vegas Odds Gone Wrong On Notre Dame's Season

 

In early June, the Las Vegas oddsmakers released their opening lines for Notre Dame's 2014 season- much to the surprise of many considering the despair on several games.

The obvious gaps that jumped off the page were the 21 point spread over Purdue and of course the underdog canyon of +24 to defending national champs Florida State.

Also of concern and foder for debate for many, was placing the Irish in the underdog role in 4 games at a combined spread of 44.5 points.

That would place the Irish on the negative in each by 11 points, or nearly 2 touchdowns.

Someone forgot to do their homework or simply understand the power the Irish bring to the table regardless of who they face, or the perception heading into each season. The Irish face teams that always play up to them- like Purdue. And in any year, Notre Dame has been known to lose to a Tulsa and wax a top ranked Sooner team in Norman.

Those that follow the Irish tooth and nail, from National Signing Day to the Blue and Gold game- would obviously have a little more input to argue odds and the underdog role. But this year's line's merited some concern if you were a betting person and you relied solely on lines and didn't do a little homework.

And even though Notre Dame had a few kinks to work out, talent alone existed and a 2 loss season was possible and well within reach. The defense was a question mark under newly acquired Brian VanGorder, but most saw the raw talent and possibility several highly sought after incoming freshman could play this year.

And of major importance in all this remains the item of the 5 players suspended on the year. 2 players projected to play major roles in the success the Irish could have this season.

KeiVarae Russell and Davaris Daniels were to be key contributors at their respective positions. Russell was toughted as one of the top corners in the nation and Daniels was coming off a big year and looked to spark an uptick in offensive output with the return of Everett Golson.

The Irish have managed without these players fairly well, but the possibilities for the entire year with atleast Daniels and Russell and the addition of Ishaq Williams would have added more depth and options overall.

With Russell in the lineup against the Noles, assuming he remained healthy all year- Everett Golson's heroics would have never been of concern late or even needed.

Here are the opening lines going into this season and the results up to the Florida State game with the final spread difference: 

Aug. 30(-21) Rice

Home openers for any college powerhouse generally means a soft win or someone your fans get to see throttled to kick the season off. Heading into 2014, the Irish would face one of few double digit win teams from 2013-the Rice Owls. About the only thing uncertain during this game was if it would pour down rain early or at all. Some rain fell late, as did Rice.

Final Score: ND 48 Rice 17 (cover +10)

Sept. 6 (-3) Michigan

The rivalry came to end for a short window, as did the Wolverine season. Vegas got it's first mega miss, although no person called this blowout. Notre Dame not only would cover, but also had a late pick 6 absolved with a late flag- something that would rear itself later in the season.

Final Score: ND 31 Michigan 0 (cover + 28)

Sept. 13 (-21) vs. Purdue

The in-state rival and Shamrock Series contest turned out like many Irish-Boilermaker games lately. Although many may have seen the Irish as heavy favorites, the first head scratching line of the year appears here. Looking at history, many would understand that Purdue has played the Irish tough over the years. And -21 was steep no matter the circumstances. The game was close from start to finish, and the Irish would not cover. 

Final Score: ND 30 Purdue 14 (no cover -5)

Sept. 27 (-5.5) vs. Syracuse

Another contest where Notre Dame would normally run away from a team like Syracuse. Most would remember the last time the two met at the end of Charlie Weis's career. The Orange pulled off the upset and all-world recruit Manti Teo received a few snowballs unintentionally from angry fans. No snow this evening.

Final Score: ND 31 Syracuse 15 (cover +10.5)

Oct. 4 (+6) Stanford

In what was to be Notre Dame's 1st loss in 2014, the magic of Everett Golson salvaged the season for the Irish with a late touchdown to tight end Ben Koyack. A cold, rainy day saw the traditional rivals spar like Ali and Frazier. Notre Dame would evade the defeat, and erase the spread altogether.

Final Score: ND 17 Stanford 14 (beat the spread +9)

Oct. 11 (-2.5) North Carolina

If looking ahead could ever be eraticated from our vocabulary, this game didn't help. Or did it? The Tar Heels caught the Irish in a perfect spot and played possibly their best game of the year. Notre Dame had trouble all day stopping North Carolina, but the Tar Heels equally couldn't adjust to the Irish offense. Some late gimme's had by the Heels made the final appear closer, but this was over mid 4th quarter. It may have been that early morning bucket of cold water for the Irish.

Final Score: ND 50 North Carolina 43 (cover +4.5)

Oct. 18 (+24) at FSU

And here we are: the big one. This was never supposed to be close, and for that matter- a win for the Irish. Perhaps one of the most absurd lines in recent memory, someone either overestimated the power of the champs or failed to scope out the Irish within reason. What turned out to be the the greatest game of the year in college football, and an instant classic- the Irish had a late flag negate a remarkable drive by Golson to pull off the upset. While the smoke is still hanging over the decisions made by the refs, Notre Dame stamped itself as a team to contend for a final playoff spot.

Final Score: ND 27 FSU 31(cover +20)

Plus/+ 77 Overall

Heading into 2014:

-Notre Dame overall was a -23 favorite combining all closing lines of 7 games

-Notre Dame would/could have been(based on closing lines) a 6 point favorite in each game

-Notre Dame thus far (based on actual results) would be an 11 point favorite in all 7 games

 

Remaining Games:
 Nov. 1 (-3) at Navy
Nov. 8 (+4.5) at Arizona State
Nov. 15 (-8) Northwestern
Nov. 22 (-8) Louisville
Nov. 29 (+10) at USC

Out of the remaining games for the Irish this season, the 1 game that will stay close where lines are concerned is the Arizona State game on the road. Should the Irish remain healthy, and the Sun Devils get back Taylor Kelly- this line should remain the same or go down. The road slugfest against the Noles will factor into the opinion that Notre Dame is a good road team no matter the venue- and this will be some venue. That result(Florida State) will keep the line from trending up in favor of Arizona State- but they could remain the favorite.

The USC game will hinge entirely on where Notre Dame is. USC remains an up and down team, and more drama has engulfed the Trojans with former player Lendall White disrupting, or attempting to impede- anything Pat Haden is trying to achieve. His Twiiter comments won't detract from the actual ongoins within the program, but with the NCAA infractions coming to a close and an end in sight- the last thing USC needs is outside interference at any magnitude. Expect USC to put it all together, and if the Irish come in to L.A. having won their last 4, the line should sway in favor of the Irish- but not much. USC by 10 will not remain.

The ending lines of Navy and Northwestern should rise.

Louisville is scary today. A tough defense coming into South Bend, on senior day- stinks on ice. It may go down, but assured will not rise. Weather could factor into how big a favorite the Irish are with the late November date.






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