DraftKings Week 5 Strategy: Expert Lineup Analysis
Do you play Fantasy Football? If the answer is yes, this week is the most exciting opportunity in the history of the game. Win a MILLION DOLLARS playing Fantasy Football this week only! Go to Do you play Fantasy Football? If the answer is yes, this week is the most exciting opportunity in the history of the game. Win a MILLION DOLLARS playing Fantasy Football this week only! Go to www.FFChamps.com/million and get in on the action. and get in on the action.
Before Dan and I delve into week five, a quick update on our head to head match: Dan has surged ahead in our head to head matches, taking a 2-1 lead as he rode Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and “so help me…” Frank Gore to a 4.5 point win. Congratulation Dan, excellent job!!! I will be coming for you in week 5!
Dan’s response: Both teams in the H2H scored enough to cash in every contest on the site. Both of us made money with our lineups….I just made a little more. Whoop whoop!!
Before we get started, as we are sure you are aware that there is a huge Daily Fantasy contest this week, for only $27 you can enter a contest with a $1,000,000 first prize, that’s right, that is a One with Six Zeros, not chump change. On top of the huge first price, second place gets $100,000 and 15,500 people will cash. What is also great: with your $27 entry you also get a FREE membership to FFCHAMPS.COM, that’s a $59.95 value, absolutely free with your entry. So get in on the big Millionaire Maker contest, all you have to do is go to www.FFChamps.com/million and you’ll be able to sign up and start drafting. Once you have signed up, come back here and take a look at Dan & my advice and thoughts on whom to get into your lineup.
As we mentioned last week, there is an excellent new tool over at FFCHAMPS.com, so Click Here to take a quick look at the FFChamps Daily Fantasy Ranks tool. Just remember to come back and finish reading our article.
OK, back to the business at hand.
As we do every week, Dan and I will take a look at the match-ups, the player performance, the Draft Kings’ pricing and the Daily Fantasy Rank Tool, of course, to suggest players we think will give you an edge as you put your Draft Kings Roster together and hopefully help you put together that perfect lineup that can take you all the way to this week’s One Million Dollar top prize.
Before we start, just as a reminder, while we will not usually highlight the Major Studs at each position, these players, like Brandon Marshall, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Demarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson will be an integral part of your lineups. Our goal here is to spotlight some of medium, and even, lower priced players who can nicely fill out your lineup. Thus allowing you to have that perfect combination of Studs and Value players to reach the money and ultimately take down first place.
So, while Dan and I will not specifically recommend many of these Studs in our discussion below, there are no reasons not to target them for your lineup. In fact, this week, Demarco Murray at $7,500, Dez Bryant at $7,800 and Antonio Brown at $8,100 are excellent value and you should seriously consider at least a couple of them as the core of your lineup this week. Just realize that if/when you do, you will have to work hard to find good value (i.e. low price/high production) in the other roster slots.
That is what we are here for.
Even though the bye weeks are upon us, this week only the Dolphins and the Raiders are on bye and aside from Lamar Miller and perhaps James Jones, there is little Daily Fantasy impact of not having these players available.
So with this in mind, here we go!
Philip Rivers ($7,000): I feel I am starting to repeat myself, but at $7,000, Rivers is an unqualified lock this week. He posted 30 fantasy points versus the Jaguars sieve-like defense last week and against a possibly worse NY Jets secondary, there is absolutely no reason to expect him to do worse. Keenan Allen is back on board, and Eddie Royal is on a scoring binge and even Malcolm Floyd is getting in on the act. With these tools, and no running game to speak of, Rivers is good for at least 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, with the bonus that’s good for another 25-30 point game.
DAN’S CHALKBOARD: Big fan. Great pick.
Ben Roethlisberger ($7,400): Rivers did it last week and Big Ben should do it this week. What is “it”? Tear up the Jaguars defense. Rivers put up 377 yards and 3 TD. With Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell (running and catching balls out of the backfield), and even Heath Miller getting back in the act, Roethlisberger is a cinch to pound the Jaguars and is well worth his salary. Roethlisberger and Brown is an excellent “Stack” and could be the secret to taking home the Million.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Love Big Ben this week. Only concerns are that he will be heavily picked in contest and it’s a Bell/Blount party in the second half.
Drew Stanton ($5,000): If Drew Stanton gets the start he is a must start. He showed flashes of talent and gained a ton of confidence with a win against San Francisco two weeks ago. With a bye week to prepare and the offensive weapons he has around him in what should be a high scoring affair, it is really a no-brainer. I am a math guy, so let me give you an equation to ponder. Talent + Confidence + Weapons = Success. Carson Palmer sees this and is desperately trying to get back on the field while he still has a starting job.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I am not averse to the idea of taking a flyer here, as Stanton’s ultra-low strategy will let you spend that money elsewhere. Make sure you do!
Tom Brady ($6,600): There is no stat that I can reference as to why I am suggesting Brady this week. The Bengals have a great defense, and Brady has looked terrible so far this season. I don’t even blame you if you saw the posted name Tom Brady and haven’t even read this far. Everything says no, that’s why I say yes. He may be the least owned starting QB this week, and let’s face it, with good reason. However, it’s still Brady and Belichick and that’s all I got, well that and my gut. This is going to be awesome!! I am sticking him in and if/when he goes big I will wave to all of you as I pass you by.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I would love to see Brady put up some big numbers, but without some other talent stretching the field (Hello Kembrell Thompkins or Aaron Dobson), I am just not sure it happens. I would probably try to ride the Brady train by using his receivers (specifically, Edelman and Gronk). If Brady does well, so will they.
Le’Veon Bell ($7,400): Let me just say this: He is playing Jacksonville! Bell is averaging 22 fantasy points. He is involved in the rushing and receiving game (he has 19 catches for 192 yards so far) and is simply getting it done. He is projected for at least 25 fantasy points and even if his salary looks a bit large, his cost per fantasy point is only $292. Also, did I mention, HE IS PLAYING JACKSONVILLE!
Dan’s Chalkboard: Bell is a stud this week. 25 points is his floor.
Marshawn Lynch ($7,200): With Lynch’s performance this year you would expect a much higher salary than the $7,200 he is standing at. With a 24.2 FFPG, Lynch has been unstoppable (he is even catching passes) and this week he gets the Redskins who were gashed by the Giants last week to the tune of 152 yards. In addition, Lynch will provide you with that Monday Night Juice that can be so advantageous to have.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Love me some Monday Night Juice, but Washington has been pretty stout against the run this year.
Khiry Robinson ($3,000): You are staring at that open flex slot; you have loaded up on studs and solid players at all the positions and you have a measly $3,000 left in your budget. What will you do? Step up and slap Robinson in your lineup. Last week in a game where they were behind Robinson only had 8 carries (and 2 catches), but delivered 82 yards, that’s an over 10 yards per carry average? Robinson is somewhat of a higher risk/high reward “sneaky” play. He should be able to match the 12 fantasy point performance he had versus the Cowboys last week, and if he can get into the end zone, you are suddenly looking at 18-20 points from your $3,000 flex player. Not too shabby.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Last week he went for $4800. This week only $3000. The Saints play a ton better at home then on the road and he should see a lot of action with a lead all day. If he hits pay dirt a time or two…Fantastic!!
Reggie Bush ($6,200): The Bills’ defense is very good against the run, but they rank near the bottom of the rankings in receptions and receiving yards to running backs. Look for Bush to get even more targets out of the backfield with Joique Bell sidelined.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Bush could light it up, or he could get you the 12.5 points he is averaging. At $6,200, I want a little bit more surety. Not bad, but I’d look elsewhere.
Rashad Jennings ($5,500): Jennings was very disappointing last week. If the Giants score 45 points you expect a lot more than 6.2 points from him. Hopefully no one but us understands that the kid needed rest after toting the rock a whopping 34 times just four days prior in a tough win against Houston. Now with 10 days to rest, look for the rock toting beast to return to form against a terrible Falcons’ defense.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Lock it up, done deal, I like it, let me see what else can I say, I think Jennings has a field day against the Falcons.
Andre Ellington ($5,600): This may be the healthiest Ellington has been this year with a bye last week to rest his foot. Denver is giving up over six catches a game to opposing running backs. Look for a healthy Ellington to hit exceed that mark while playing catchup in Denver.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I really like Ellington at $5,600. This game should have a ton of points scored and Ellington is the type of dynamic back who can really light things up. Go for it?
Antonio Brown ($8,200): I know he is the second highest priced WR, but HE IS PLAYING JACKSONVILLE! Brown has been a beast this year, averaging 27 FFPG this year, with a 36 point performance last week. He is worth his salary. Stack Brown with Roethlisberger and watch the points and, ultimately, the
Dan’s Chalkboard: PPR beast always, and now a TD machine!! Hopefully his price tag scares people away and he is not heavily owned.
Kelvin Benjamin ($4,800): Versus the 28th ranked defense against WR (Bears have allowed 697 yards and 6 TD to WRs), Benjamin , who is averaging 18.7 FFPG, should be expected to continue his up and coming performance which has led to 21 catches for 329 yards and 3 touchdowns. As Cam Newton gets healthier each week and forges a rapport with Benjamin, Kelvin should have a standout performance this week.
Dan’s Chalkboard: This is my favorite rookie of the season so far. More importantly…this is Cam Newton’s favorite rookie too. Keep it up kid!
Victor Cruz ($5,800): After a rough first two games, Victor Cruz has started to click with Eli Manning in the new offense. Over the past two weeks, Cruz has posted 11 catches for 215 yards and a TD, for an average FFPG of 22.3. If he matches this performance versus the Falcons, we are looking at a Cost per Fantasy point of only $260. I will take it!
Dan’s Chalkboard: Gosh I hate liking Nick’s picks, but when you’re on you’re on. I’ll be cheering for Ruben Randle though.
Wes Welker ($5,500): Welker only played in about 60% of the snaps in his week three return to action. However, with a bye in week four, he should be right back in the mix this week. Patrick Peterson should be locking down Demaryius Thomas all day and that hopefully means Welker will get sub-par nickel corner Jerraud Powers lined up against him in the slot. If I know this is an exploitable matchup, you better bet so does Peyton, especially with a bye week to prepare.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Welker’s relatively inexpensive price makes him a very nice pick as any receiver in Peyton’s offense has a chance to go off big (see Julius Thomas in week one).
Golden Tate ($4,900): Tate was on my list last week and will continue to be until his price tag goes too high. Banged up or not the focus will always be to stop Calvin Johnson when playing Detroit. Tate has caught at least five balls in every game this year, and he will certainly be in my lineup when he finally hits pay dirt, it’s coming soon. Then his price will boom as well. Get him while he is cheap.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Tate is proving an excellent complement to Calvin, as his 22.6 point performance last week indicates. Tate is a nice inexpensive option.
Rueben Randle ($3,900): Randle has 19 targets in the last two weeks, and he is just missing scoring opportunities. Defenses are focusing on Victor Cruz, Rashad Jennings, and now Larry Donnell. A big game is coming, why not this week against a Falcons’ defense that ranks 31st against #2 wide receivers.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I am buying into the fact that the Giants have figured out this West Coast Offense thing. Eli has looked for Randle in the past, no reason to think he won’t continue to do so.
Travis Kelce ($3,000): WHAT??? Only $3,000 for Travis Kelce, I guess they weren’t watching the game on Monday night. Kelce is leading the Chiefs in Receptions, Targets and Yardage. While the 49ers do well against TEs, Kelce does not lineup like the normal TE, he is outside, in the slot, and he is more like a BIG wide receiver. And the 49ers are 8th worst against WRs. For $3,000, Kelce is a bargain and an absolute no brainer.
Dan’s Chalkboard: DraftKing puts out the price tags before the Monday Night game. Take advantage of their gifts.
Larry Donnell ($5,700): I wouldn’t look any farther than Kelce, highlighted above, but if you absolutely want to spend more money on a TE, Larry Donnell is still excellent value. Donnell is quickly becoming Eli’s go to guy, and even if he doesn’t get into the end zone 3 times this week, he is still good for 6-7 catches, for 70 or so yards and at least 1 TD, that’s good for a 20 point day and cost per fantasy point of only $285. Still excellent value!
Dan’s Chalkboard: Donnell has been my guy since week two. His price tag is way too high this week though. Not a fan.
Garrett Graham ($3,000): The Cowboys average weekly stat line against the tight end position is 9-95-1, which equates to 24.5 points a week. Granted they have faced some talented tight ends in Vernon Davis, Delaine Walker, Jarod Cook, and Jimmy Graham; but Garrett Graham is no slouch and I will take 75% of that production for $3000.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($3,000): The rookie has missed a couple of weeks due to an ankle injury but returned last week with three catches for 44 yards on seven targets. He is a big red zone option and could see double digit targets if Mike Evans misses time this week with a groin injury. They will need to score points and pass often to stay with the Saints home offense this week.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I will address both of these options at the same time. There is a ton of value out there at the TE spot and Graham and Sefarian-Jenkins are two of them, along with Ebron, Kelce, etc. For $3,000 it’s tough to go wrong. If I had to make a pick here, I would go with the more experienced Garrett Graham against the woeful (against TEs) Cowboys.
New York Giants ($2,400): While there are probably D/STs that might generate more points, but at $2,400 the Giants should do ok, note the 15 points they put up at the Redskins. They should have no problem racking up some points with Sacks versus the Falcons’ decimated O-Line, and away from home Matt Ryan has thrown 5 interceptions. For a cheap $2,400, the Giants D/ST will not only score some points but allow for more money available at other positions.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Ok. Pump your brakes a bit Nick. Don’t you know the Falcons are coming to town. Matty Ice and the boys like them some Offense.
Saints ($2500): They are a better team at home, Rob Ryan should have them fired up, they have a great price tag, and the Buccaneers are coming to town. Enough said.
Nick’s Chalkboard: As with my own pick, the Giants, the discount price here is the telling factor. A low priced D/ST that can score some points is good thing, when money spent elsewhere can be so much more valuable.
That is what we have for this week. We both hope that some of our picks will help you out. Remember with a little research and creativity you can create that perfect lineup that takes down the big bucks in this week’s HUGE, SPECTACULAR, Millionaire Maker contest.
Good Luck This Week!!
Perry04 & Beaudog (woof!)