DraftKings Week 6 Strategy: Expert Lineup Analysis
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Week 6 Draft Kings X’s & O’s: A Strategy Discussion Of Who To Put In Your Lineup
This week Dan opened up a major can of WhoopA$$ on me as his Peyton/Demaryius stack racked up 81.5 points and spelled victory for him in H2H battle. He has opened up a 3-1 lead; I'd better win this week before it becomes embarrassing. Congrats to Dan for his win this week, but he had better watch out as I have a couple of secret weapons hiding in the weeds.
Dan’s Response: Hey Nick. I am the secret weapon. Shhhhhhhhhh.
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Once you have signed up, come back here and take a look at Dan's & my advice and thoughts on whom to get into your lineup.
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OK, back to the business at hand.
As we do every week, Dan and I will take a look at the match-ups, the player performance, the Draft Kings’ pricing and the Daily Fantasy Rank Tool, of course, to suggest players we think will give you an edge as you put your Draft Kings Roster together and hopefully help you put together that perfect lineup that can take you all the way to this week’s One Million Dollar top prize.
Before we start, just as a reminder, while we will not usually highlight the Major Studs at each position, these players, like Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Andrew Luck, Demarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell will be an integral part of your lineups. Our goal here is to spotlight some of medium, and even, lower priced players who can nicely fill out your lineup. Thus allowing you to have that perfect combination of Studs and Value players to reach the money and ultimately take down first place.
So, while Dan and I will not specifically recommend many of these Studs in our discussion below, there are no reasons not to target them for your lineup. In fact, this week, Aaron Rodgers at $8,400, Matt Forte at $8,800, Demarco Murray at $7,600, Demaryius Thomas at $8,000 and Jordy Nelson at $7,700 provide excellent value and you should seriously consider at least a couple of them as the core of your lineup this week. Just realize that if/when you do, you will have to work hard to find good value (i.e. low price/high production) in the other roster slots.
That is what we are here for!
Even though the bye weeks are upon us, this week only the Saints and the Chiefs are on bye. With Jimmy Graham injured, the only players that impact the daily fantasy world by their absence are Drew Brees, Jamaal Charles and perhaps the inexpensive Travis Kelce.
So with this in mind, here we go!
Russell Wilson ($7,600): I am sorry, the man is a STUD. 37 fantasy points last week, a 24.4 FFPG, and he will be playing at home with the “12th man” backing him up. Just think about his totals if those plays to Percy Harvin don’t get called back. For $7,600, lock him up, put your feet up and relax.
DAN’S CHALKBOARD: Hard to argue with Wilson’s productivity. However, 21 of those points were all rushing stats - 122 yards and a touchdown. Not saying he won’t run the ball, but I will say it’s unlikely that he will lead his team in rushing in another game this year. His price tag is pumped up too much after last weeks’ performance for me to like him.
Kirk Cousins ($6,700): Cousins had a solid day last week vs the Seattle defense, putting up a 20 fantasy point day, and you still have to remember his 31.5 point day versus the Eagles in week three. This week he gets an Arizona defense that was “lit up” by the Broncos and has seen more injuries to its defensive core as DL Calais Campbell is out for several weeks and DB Justin Bethel is questionable with a shoulder. Cousins should be able to take advantage of this with wide outs, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson as well as the up and coming target, Andre Roberts. With Niles Paul a week healthier, Cousins should have all his weapons at his disposal.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Patrick Peterson is barely ranking inside the top 50 corner backs this year, and now he is dealing with an ankle injury. Cousins has a ton of weapons and Arizona will likely shut down the run first. I can get down with Cousins this week.
Tom Brady ($6,000): New England got it going last week. They stay in sync this week in Buffalo. The two tight end set is back. The thing I love the most about Brady is that fantastic QB sneak at the goal line. I’ll take the quick 6.0001 points from the one inch line instead of the dreaded hand off to Ridley.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Stack him up with Gronk! It’s a really cheap stack that will allow a ton of flexibility elsewhere
Eli Manning: ($7800): I think Chip Kelly wants his defense to surrender tons of points and yards through the air so he can put up video game numbers on Offense. Manning has a lot of talent around him and has adapted nicely to the new offense. His upside is too much to ignore this week.
Nick’s Chalkboard: The Eagles would allow points to a Pee Wee team. The Giants are becoming a point scoring machine and Eli is at the controls. This game is going to be a shootout with the Vegas Boys setting a 50 point over/under, I am on board.
Eddie Lacy ($6,300): Lacy came to play last week and put up STUD numbers. This week the Packers head down to Miami. Miami hasn’t faced a strong rushing team, except the Chiefs in week three where they allowed a 217 total yards to the Chiefs RBs. I see Green Bay riding the wave and giving Lacy plenty of opportunity to establish himself as the dominant running back he is. At a relatively inexpensive price, Lacy is a solid option.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Since when are the Packers a strong rushing team? Miami has faced the Patriots, Bills, and Chiefs all strong running teams in my opinion and stronger than the Packers for sure. I think there are better plays at RB this week.
Frank Gore ($4,800): It seems that the 49ers have realized that they have a Stud running back in their midst as Gore has over 280 combined yards in the past two weeks. At $4,800, Gore remains an extreme value play, allowing a lineup to stock up at other positions.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I can’t stop smiling. Nick is picking Gore… too sweet. Jump on the Gore Fan Bus with us….it’s a great ride.
Matt Forte ($8,800): While it is good to look for lower priced players who have the potential to put up good numbers, sometimes you have to bite the bullet and lock up the stud player. This week that player is Forte. With 25.1 and 36.6 fantasy points in the past two weeks and with the very weak Falcons defense on tap for this week, paying the price for Forte seems a solid move.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Forte is great. Atlanta defense is terrible. What’s his floor this week? Like 25 points? This isn’t the mall with your lady price shopping. This is the hardware store with the power tools. You get what you pay for. Arh Arh Arh….that’s my Tim the Tool man impression fyi.
Andre Ellington ($5,100): Let’s go through a simple checklist. 1. Three down back..check 2. Potential to take it to house from anywhere..check 3. QB issues and lots of check-downs..check 4. In a RBBC..no check. How is this guy $5100? Thank you DK, may I have another. Check next pick, guess I can.
Nick’s Chalkboard: I am on board with Ellington. If Palmer plays I like him even better as it will force the Redskins to defend the pass more and open things up.
LeSean McCoy ($6,000): Gosh I hope the rest of the world lost faith in Shady. If he is not the most owned running back this week, then I must be crazy. You give me McCoy for 6k ever and he is the first person on my lineup. I double checked to make sure he didn’t have a broken leg or something.
Nick’s Chalkboard: At this price, McCoy is too good to pass by, even if he continues his “sub-Shady” performance I still think we are looking at 12-15 point floor, not bad for $6,000.
Joique Bell ($3,700): If Bush is out, he needs to find you’re lineup. What great potential for such a small salary. Theo Riddick could be a thorn in the side, but I am definitely willing to risk it.
Nick’s Chalkboard: As you can see, I am agreeing with Dan a good deal this week. I can’t argue with his logic, so I won’t just for the sake of aurgument and while Bell scares the living daylights out of me, I have slotted him into the FLEX spot in several lineups this week.
Golden Tate ($6,300): The Lions are a passing team, and last week, Minnesota showed how they can be burned by the deep throw, as the Packers made quick work of the Vikings. Super Stud, Calvin Johnson has not been in evidence as he deals with his injuries. Tate has stepped up big time, with 15 catches for 250 yards and a touchdown in the past two weeks. At his price, he is cheap and is a lock for your lineup. An interesting note, watch the injury report, if C. Johnson is active, it might actually be better for Tate as Megatron on the field means that the Vikings will have to account for him, while if he is inactive, they may be able to double Tate more often. Regardless, Tate should be a major consideration.
Dan’s Chalkboard: His price jumped way up, I think he was on my list last week saying I will plug him in till he goes off and his price spikes. Did it spike enough? Does it help or hurt if Megatron plays? Pondering….hmmm….still unsure. If I am unsure I usually fade.
Pierre Garcon ($5,800): After a 34 point performance versus the Eagles in week three, Garcon has been quiet. Last week he faced the Seahawks, and the week before the Giants were able to shut the entire Redskins offense down. This week he goes to Arizona. The Cardinals’ defense is living on rep a little bit this year, especially with all of their injuries and each week have given up more yards to WRs than the previous week, culminating in last week’s 385 yards to the Broncos. With DeSean Jackson stretching the field, Garcon should rebound nicely this week working underneath and should be good for 6-8 catches for 80 yards, if he can get in the end zone a 20+ point game should be in the offing.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I really like taking high production players after they have been in a “slump” for a couple of weeks and their price drops. Patrick Peterson has a sore ankle, hope he plays, because he ranks barely 50th among CBs before the ankle thing this season and Garcon should take advantage. See weakness attack!!
Rueben Randle ($4,600): Randle is getting the targets from Eli Manning (40 over the first five weeks), and the Eagles defense is dead last versus WRs. Opportunity + Bad Defense = Potential Huge Game. At $4,600, Randle is an excellent choice to allow you to get other Stud WRs like Demaryius Thomas or Julio Jones (at home!!) into your roster.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Word on the street is Odell Beckham Jr. is taking targets, but from who? Randle was targeted 10 times last week and has been the most targeted receiver on the team. Plus Manning loves looking for him in the red zone. Turn targets into production already and add a touchdown. I am a fan.
Mohamed Sanu ($5,400): Sanu has been solid this year. With A.J. Green and Marvin Jones expected to be out this week, he should get plenty of looks. Carolina’s cornerbacks are not very good on paper this year so there is no worry their either. I love Sanu this week.
Nick’s Chalkboard: My problem with Sanu is the lack of any other alternatives and the fact that it is Dalton throwing him the ball. I really think this is going to be Gio Bernard’s game and that the passing game will take a back seat.
Alshon Jeffery ($6,500): This has the making of a shootout. Both teams have bad defenses and great offenses. Brandon Marshall is still hampered by the ankle sprain, but will likely be playing. He should provide a great decoy to draw some coverage from Jeffery to go off.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Until Marshall shows that he is 100%, I love Jeffrey in a game that should have a ton of scoring, also Bennett is due for his annual drop off, leaving Jeffrey, Cutler’s go to guy.
Davante Adams ($3,000): Rodgers publicly noted that he wants to look Adams way more, he is doing everything right. This is legit on paper as well. His offensive snap percentage has increased every week. Here is the breakdown from week one through week five: 14%, 51%, 64%, 71%, 80%. Keep this kid on your radar. He is going to have his breakout game soon. Don’t use him in the cash games (50/50 – H2H), but love him as a GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) play this week.
Nick’s Chalkboard: With all of the high priced WR to pick from this week, we will need a real inexpensive Flex or WR3. Adams obviously fits the price point at $3,000, high risk/high reward, can’t make a million dollar omelet without breaking a few $3,000 eggs.
Delanie Walker ($5,300): Walker gets the joy of playing the Jaguars this week. The Jaguars are 31st versus TEs and allowed Antonio Gates 4 catches for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. Walker is one of the Titans’ main weapons and he should have a field day against the Jaguars’ reeling defense.
Dan’s Chalkboard: Safe play here. Really like if Locker is good-to-go. Keep up the great season.
Larry Donnell ($3,500): Last week, Donnell’s price tag skyrocketed to $5,700 and as a reward he was not targeted at all versus the Falcons and put up the dreaded 0.0 points. His roller coaster continues as his priced has dropped down to a very manageable $3,500. At $3,500, I will take the risk that Eli and the Giants will return to their “love the TE offensive strategy” and get the ball to Donnell in the Red Zone against the porous Eagles defense. If you have the budget, Walker (see above) is probably the safer play, but for the small price, Donnell is a nice higher risk/higher reward option.
Dan’s Chalkboard: I don’t get last week, Donnell is a big athletic target with great hands, exactly what you want out of your tight end position. So what changed? I think he was targeted once. Is he the one to be affected by the arrival of Odell Beckham Jr.? He has been Manning’s safety valve when pressured. Atlanta can’t pressure the QB so one target? Eagles can’t pressure the QB so…?? His price tag makes him a safer risk.
Jordan Cameron ($3,600): He was looking to have a big day in the opener against the Steelers (currently ranked 27th worst against TE position) until he got hurt. He puts in four quarters of work and impresses this week.
Nick’s Chalkboard: If Cameron can stay on the field I like him. It’s a risk, but at $3,600 could be worth it.
Jason Witten ($3,600): I think a lot of people fade Witten this week. Seattle is getting beat up against the TE position though. Romo will be under a ton of pressure and will be looking for some quick outlets which is good for Witten. I see a high catch count for him this week.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Whitten is more rep than production this year. With only 8.1 average FFPG this year, Whitten’s production has fallen victim to Dallas’ rush first mentality and DeMarco Murray’s success. Whitten is a great “Football” TE, I don’t like him in “Fantasy Football”. Dan put him in your H2H team, let’s see what happens. I will totally eat crow if he makes the difference.
Denver Broncos ($3,100): The NY Jets were shut out last week. The Broncos held the much better Cardinal offence to 20 points, 178 passing yards and 37 rushing yards. While they had 3 sacks, there were no INTs, fumbles, etc. to pump their fantasy points. Versus Geno Smith and his 6 interceptions so far this season, that could definitely change, allowing the Broncos to post solid fantasy point production for a mid-priced defense.
Dan’s Chalkboard: You’re crazy Nick!! Didn’t you hear? Geno Smith and Mike Vick are so talented they don’t need to 1. Show up for meetings or 2. Prepare as a backup. Let me explain how this game goes. Kickoff 1pm EST. Jet’s receive. Ryan screams, “Geno…Geno? Where the heck is Geno?” Geno calls arena, “My bad coach, still on West coast time, it’s only like 9am I’ll be there in an hour.” So put Vick in right? Ryan says, “Vick you’re in!” Vick responds, “What coach, you want me to go in? I thought you said Geno was your guy? Dang…wasn’t ready for this at all.” Jack Del Rio is caught laughing on the sidelines with the rest of the defense and the world. Way to be pros guys.
Seattle ($3100): It’s Seattle at home for $3100. Say thank you and put them in. If they stop the run…when they stop the run, Tony Romo will throw a couple of picks.
Nick’s Chalkboard: Hold on, I am laughing too hard to write…………..no, not about the Seattle pick, about Dan’s comments above……..OK, I am better. The Seahawks Defense is the Seahawks Defense, and the Cowboys only posted 20 points last week versus Houston. I don’t have a problem with this pick at all. I just wish they were playing the Jets.
That is what we have for this week. We both hope that some of our picks will help you out. Remember with a little research and creativity you can create that perfect lineup that takes down the big bucks in this week’s HUGE, SPECTACULAR, Millionaire Maker contest.
Good Luck This Week!!
Perry04 & Beaudog (woof!)