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Saturday, 6 December 2014

DraftKings Week 14 Strategy: Expert Lineup Analysis

Week 14 Draft Kings X’s & O’s:  A Strategy Discussion Of Who To Put In Your Lineup

 

Hi All, 

I win….I win….i win!!!!!  Okay, a bit of an over-reaction I know.  After a 15 point victory (177.5 to 162.7) last week, I am only behind by 2 games, 7-5 in Dan and my year-long H2H competition.  Garbage time was good to me as Big Ben ended up with 31 points and I hit nicely with Tre Mason and CJ Anderson.  Dan had a good day with Le’Veon Bell and his 42 point performance and he got 22 points from his extremely cheap Jaguars defense.  I am looking for another win this week to make this a real tight race as we come down to the end of the season.  I have some real good ideas this week, Dan, so you will have to bring it hard this week.

Dan responds: Billy Bean (Moneyball), “I hate losing even more than I like winning….and there is a difference.”  Good win.  Be careful though, I just hit that revenge button!!  Time to build my winning team to destroy you with.  

Nick Re-Responds….Eeeeeekkkkk!!!! I am scared now; I think I will go hide behind some chain saws (obscure reference to TV commercial).

So, here we go…… 

As a reminder, FFCHAMPS.Com has a great tool you can use to help set up your Daily Fantasy Line Up:  Just Click Here to take a quick look at the FFChamps Daily Fantasy Ranks tool.  Just remember to come back and finish reading our article.

OK, back to the business at hand. 

As we do every week, Dan and I will take a look at the match-ups, the player performance, the Draft Kings’ pricing and the Daily Fantasy Rank Tool, of course, to suggest players we think will give you an edge as you put your Draft Kings Roster together and hopefully help you put together that perfect lineup that can take you all the way to big cash win!!!!

Before we start, just as a reminder, while we will not usually highlight the Major Studs at each position, these players, like Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Demarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Matt Forte, Rob Gronkowski, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, and Jeremy Maclin will be an integral part of your lineups.  Our goal here is to also spotlight some of medium, and even, lower priced players who can nicely fill out your lineup.  Thus allowing you to have that perfect combination of Studs and Value players to reach the money and ultimately take down first place.

So, while Dan and I will not specifically recommend many of these Studs in our discussion below, there are no reasons not to target them for your lineup.  In fact, this week, Aaron Rodgers at $9,800, Peyton Manning at $9,300, Demaryius Thomas at $8,800, Jordy Nelson at $8,100, Antonio Brown at $9,300 and Rob Gronkowski at $8,000 still provide excellent value and you should seriously consider at least a couple of them as the core of your lineup this week.  Just realize that if/when you do, you will have to work hard to find good value (i.e. low price/high production) in the other roster slots.

That is what we are here for!

As with every week, remember to keep your eye on the injury report and active/inactive list to make sure a player you may have rostered is in fact good to go, the worst thing in daily fantasy is to have a great big zero in your lineup because a player was a late scratch.

So with this in mind, here we go!

Nick’s QBs:

Drew Brees ($9,100): Brees has definitely found his mojo (is Austin Powers running around somewhere), scoring over 30 fantasy points in the past two weeks, and not just at home (he put up 30.3 points in Pittsburgh last week).  He is completing over 70% of his passes and is firing on all cylinders.   This week he is at home in the Dome and gets to face the Panthers who have given up 22 passing touchdowns and the 13th most fantasy points to QBs this year.  Even at a high price, I really like Brees this week.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  There have been questions about Bree’s arm strength and age lately to the point that the Saints’ have speculated on drafting his future successor in the upcoming draft.  If that was a motivational tactic, it obviously worked.

 

Russell Wilson ($7,700): The Eagles give up the 4th most points to QBs and are susceptible to rushing QBs.  The Eagles will put up points at home and Wilson will need to use both his legs and his arm to keep Seattle in the game and get the victory they need to keep the pressure on the Cardinals for the NFC West title.  Wilson has a pretty solid floor and has a ceiling that can reach the 40 fantasy point level, especially if matches or exceeds his 57 ypg rushing average.

DAN’S CHALKBOARD:  I love taking players against the Eagles for two reasons.  1.) The Eagles put up points and force the opposing offenses to keep up and 2.) The Eagles’ run such a fast offense that the opposing teams offensive snap counts are always higher than their average, meaning more chances for production.  Good call.

 

Dan’s QBs:

Aaron Rodgers ($9,800):  Maybe this is a punt play, but I really need a QB to go over 20 points for once.  Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league, and even though he may not play the fourth quarter in this one he will still have great production. I just hope the actual Packers are not as confident that they will destroy the Falcons as I am and overlook them.  Rodgers to Cobb for two first half scores and Eddie Lacy for second half cleanup duty.  Lock it in.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Cannot argue with Rodgers, even at his high salary…I even worked out a quadruple stack lineup with Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson and Cobb.  I definitely see a 50 burger for Rodgers and Green Bay this week.

 

Andy Dalton ($6,000):  I am taking Dalton again this week.  I just know one of his spectacular games is coming and I am not missing it this year.  He should have to throw early and often to keep up with the Steelers.  With a healthy Gio Bernard and A.J. Green all the weapons are there for him to do it.   My theories always work sometimes. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Maybe it’s the red hair…I just don’t know.   I agree he is due for his yearly 350 yard, 3 touchdown performance and I like his price, but I think I’d rather have the catchers than the thrower in this one.

 

Nick’s RBs:  A quick note on my RBs this week, they are all on the injury report so watch the Friday practice report, if they practice and are good to go, great, if they are limited or don’t practice use them with caution and watch the active/inactive reports on Sunday morning.

Justin Forsett ($6,900): Justin Forsett’s last three games, 106 yards, 182 yards, and 116 yards, and four touchdowns.  In the last two weeks, the Dolphins defense has been gashed for 200 yards by the Denver Broncos and 171 yards by the New York Jets on the ground, I watched both games and from the eye test they just seemed absolutely helpless against a solid running game.  The Baltimore Ravens will have seen the tapes and Forsett is just the type of back who should be able to make it three in a row of teams taking the Miami Dolphins run defense to the wood shed and putting a smack down on them.  I am signing up for a big day from Forsett.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I am big on the eye test.   Every time I watch Forsett and the Raven’s offensive line I am impressed.  They are committed to the run and apparently the Dolphins are not committed to stopping it.  Nice pick. 

 

Mark Ingram ($6,500): Looks like Mark Ingram took a couple of weeks off in weeks 11 and 12, but he came back strong in week 13 versus the Steelers with 23 carries for 122 yards, all while Brees was throwing for five touchdowns.  It looks like Ingram has survived the return of Pierre Thomas and is still the number one choice in the Saints backfield.  Against the middle-of-the-road Carolina Panthers run defense I like Ingram at his $6,500 price tag.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Shocker right?  Get back to running the ball and get back to winning.  I can’t imagine the Saints’ don’t see this correlation as well. 

 

Rashad Jennings ($7,100): The Tennessee Titans are absolutely horrible against the run (giving up the most fantasy points to RBs) giving up 7 rushing touchdowns in the past five weeks.  Jennings is getting the work: 22, 27 and 29 touches since his return from injury.  Last week he posted two touchdowns and 24 fantasy points and without the fumbles that ruined the Giants day most likely would have gone over 100 yards rushing for an additional 3 bonus points.  Tom Coughlin will not let his team quit and Jennings should be in for another big day versus the Titans.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  If he is a go then yes I really like him as well.  Tennessee leads the league in opponent’s plays per game, and the G-Men love giving this kid the rock.  If he is a go expect a 20 carry day, which usually leads to great production. If he is out then Andre Williams makes for an interesting play for the same reasons.

 

Dan’s RBs:

Eddy Lacy ($7,800):  It’s a simple strategy really.  Find the RB that is playing the Falcons and get them in your lineup.  The Packers always hammer the Falcons and this week will be no different.  The game could be over by half and that means a ton of carries for Lacy.  Oh yea, and some Monday Night Juice to go with it.    

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I really like Lacy this week and would have picked him myself, but I wanted to leave you some Packers to drool over, Dan, I see  Rodgers 3 touchdowns in the first half (possibly one to Lacy on a screen or flair), then a full diet of Eddie Lacy up the middle for the Falcons’ defense.  Great Pick!

 

Bishop Sankey ($4,000):  Everyone knows to run the ball against the Giants; hopefully the Titans do as well.  If Bad Eli shows up and the Titans get a nice lead, Sankey could be the steal of the week.  At $4000 he is worth the shot. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Sankey was one of the pre-season darlings but has totally fallen on his face, usually after less than 4 yards.  He has only 2 games over 11 fantasy points, and none over 14 points.  Even against the Giants I don’t see him going off for 20+ points.  It’s not totally him; the Terrible Titans don’t really seem to know how to use him.

 

Giovani Bernard (5,300):  I am not sold on the timeshare between Gio and Jeremy Hill, more so than I think they eased Bernard back into the mix.  Gio should get the bulk of the carries simply because he is the better and more versatile back, if he gets hot we will be saying Jeremy Hill who next week?  The Bengals will have to keep pace with the high scoring Steeler offense and Bernard is the better receiver of the two backs as well. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  It is somewhat of a mess in the Bengals backfield, but that is the Bengals.  I have no problem with taking a shot with Gio, his price is right and as he has shown earlier this year he does have the ability and talent to put up huge numbers both on the field and in fantasy.  Worth a shot.

 

Nick’s WRs: 

Kenny Stills ($6,000): I am not sure why he was only on the field for about 50% of the snaps last week, while being on the field for a little more than 2/3 of the snaps the week before, but he definitely made the most of it with 5 catches on 6 targets for 162 yards and a TD.  This week he gets to run around with the Carolina Panthers secondary who been nothing if not generous to WRs, allowing 4 touchdowns and 119 fantasy points in their last 3 games.  I really like Stills this week as I see him staying on the field more and becoming Brees’ deep target while also being targeted for shorter passes.  I am recommending a Brees/Stills stack for a well-priced $15,100.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Gosh.  I really like Stills and loved his numbers last week too.  However, I can’t get over his snap count percentage.  It is so important for wide receivers that I really can’t support this pick.  Nick Toon (52%) was on the field more than Stills (45%), maybe Toon is a better blocker and they planned to run a ton.  I don’t know, but he is just too pricey this week for his volume in my opinion.

 

Jarvis Landry ($5,600): I am all over Landry in Draft Kings’ PPR scoring format, especially versus a Ravens defense giving up the most points to WRs this year, including 120 fantasy points over the past two games.  Over the past four games he has 10, 5, 11 and 11 targets with 7, 5, 7 and 8 receptions and three touchdowns.  With Mike Wallace most likely getting Jimmy Smith in coverage, Landry should have a field day against the remainder of Baltimore’s highly suspect secondary.  As Dan likes to say, I really like the volume and like his fellow LSU alumni, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry is proving he can get it done.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  So I am reading through your comments and all I can think is….yep I love the volume this kid is getting for the price.  Then I read the end and you said it for me.  I love volume and Laundry is getting a mitt full of it (80% of snaps).  Nice Pick.

 

Marqise Lee ($3,900):  I wanted to look at a lower priced WR since it is essential to have a couple of lower priced players in your lineup.  Without them, there is no way you can look to nail the higher priced studs that should be driving your roster.  The key is to find one who has the chance for a breakout day.  This week I like the Jacksonville Jaguar receivers against the Houston Texans who are giving up the 2nd most points to WRs, including 17 touchdowns, hell they gave up 13 receptions, 211 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Tennessee Titans last week. Lee was heavily touted at the beginning of the season but normal rookie growing pains and injuries have kept him somewhat off the radar.  He has been coming on recently, and is fast becoming Bortles favorite target, with 5 targets in week 12 and 6 catches on 8 targets last week against the Giants, for 75 yards and a touchdown. I have selected Lee here, but Shorts also at $3,900 and Allen Hurns at $3,800 could be options as well.  I have picked Lee because he seems to be the up and coming WR, and if I am going for a lower priced flyer, I like one who is on the rise.  Rookie WR have been lighting it up this year, this could be Marqise Lee’s week, though I do wonder where the “U” in his name went, Dan doesn’t a “U” always follow a “Q”?

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I got an A all my life in math classes, but never had above a C in any English class.  If Q and U are variables in an equation then you’re talking my language.  So how about an “If Then Statement”.  If Shorts or Hurn’s production is > Lee’s production, then Nick = foolish.  If Lee’s production is > Shorts or Hurns production, then Nick = genius.  Tune in next week for the answer, but my educated guess would lean toward genius.

 

Dan’s WRs:

Stedman Bailey ($4,300):  I picked Bailey last week and said he will be mid $4k this week and still be good value.  Well he is mid $4k and I think he is a steal.  He had all his points last week (18) in the first quarter and the game was over by mid second quarter in a St. Louis route of Oakland which sucked for him.  Hopefully the Redskins can stay competitive.      

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Right there with you on this Dan.  The first thing I did this week when the pricing came out was check on Bailey to make sure he was still affordable.  Yahoo!!!!!! He is and I will be placing him in many of my lineups.

 

Randall Cobb ($7,400):  I am sure everyone wants some exposure to the Packers’ offense this week.  Let me solve the mystery of which WR to take.  Leave Jordy on the shelf and pick Cobb this week.  Not because he is cheaper, but because he will get more targets.  The Packers are notorious for game planning for specific matchups, so look at FFChamps.com and their defensive stats against tool.  The Falcons are the 7th best team against WR#1 (aka DB Desmond Trufant) and they are the 3rd worst team against WR#2 (aka Robert Alford).  Cobb is going to be in for a lot of targets and a monster day on Sunday.  Get him in your lineup and thank me later.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Not much to add at all…sign me up.  Great pick!

 

Kelvin Benjamin ($6,500):  The Panthers had a bye week and then Benjamin wasn’t exactly spectacular last week.  Looking even deeper, he had his worst production game of the season in his first meeting with the Saints.  He is also at that mid-price range that people tend to skip over when selecting players.  So why do I like him?  Simple, I believe he will be very low owned and he is getting a ton of targets (VOLUME VOLUME VOLUME).  He is a big red zone receiver and if he has a big game then the separation value from the field will be awesome. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Dan, I think people have forgotten that this kid is a rookie and will have some ups and downs, so one bad week is no reason to get of the Benjamin train.  Cam may be having a rough year, but he has been getting the ball to his stellar rookie wide receiver, and this week versus a somewhat porous Saints defense, I see a nice bounce back for Benjamin.

 

Nick’s TEs: 

Rob Gronkowski ($8,000): I am making a Belichick call here.  Gronk hasn’t gotten into the end zone in a couple of weeks and for him has been relatively quiet, while still getting plenty of targets (12 last week – highest on the team).  Last week his seven catches for 98 yards were still a solid 17 points.  For his salary we need him to get into the end zone, this week I think it happens.  Obviously if you go with Gronk you will need to go inexpensive elsewhere and it’s a risk if he doesn’t get a touchdown, but he is getting the targets, the touchdowns will come.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Gronk is great and if he scores a touchdown or two then he is a must have. 

 

Jordan Cameron ($3,000):  As with last week, I am again going to recommend Cameron if he is good to go.  This one is totally a “watch the injury report” play.  If Cameron is good to go on Sunday, he could be a great play. The Colts are giving up the 3rd most points to TEs and last week allowed Colt McCoy and Jordan Reed to slash them for 9 receptions for 123 yards.  With Josh Gordon taking the top off the secondary, there should be a ton of room in the middle for Cameron to ply his trade and at a Draft Kings minimum of $3,000 could be a great value.  As I said this is totally dependent on his injury status.  If he is not cleared and 100% to play, he should be avoided.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  For minimum value and his upside potential I am definitely on board if he is active for Sunday’s contest. 

 

Dan’s TEs:

Kyle Rudolph ($3,300):  I liked Rudolph last week when Nick suggested him and luckily he scored a touchdown to be somewhat fantasy relevant.  Tight ends have just been weird this year.  He has a great matchup, a great price, good upside, and his offensive coordinator has a history of using the TE.  With a rookie QB he should start seeing more safety valve targets. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  In writing this article this week I bounced back and forth between touting Rudolph again the week or making a case for spending the money for Gronk.  As you will have read, I went the Gronk route, but I am still incredibly high on Rudolph and will second this pick.

 

Antonio Gates ($4,700):  Is Gates just streaky this year or is it that Phillip Rivers’ rib problem was hurting his ability to throw.   I am sure it’s the latter of the two and hopefully now the undisclosed rib injury is fully behind him and he and Gates can get hot again.  Don’t think that Gates doesn’t want to show Gronk who revolutionized the TE position in the NFL.  The best TE of all time will be up for this one.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  The Patriots are not great against TEs (giving up the 9th most points to TEs) and with the Patriots having to contend with a revived Keenan Allen, Gates could make some major plays on Sunday night and will definitely be one of Rivers’ first looks in the red zone.

 

Nick’s D/STs:

St Louis Rams ($3,600):  The Rams defense really poured it on last week and while I usually don’t like to “chase” points, the Rams defense has been getting better and better both on the field and in terms of fantasy points.  In their last four games they have scored 6, 10, 15 and 32 points.  The Washington Redskins stink and Colt McCoy is not a good quarterback and DeSean Jackson most likely will be less than 100%.  While I don’t see another 32 point monster performance, the Rams should put a beat down on the Redskins and generate significant fantasy points, certainly enough to justify their $3,600 price tag.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I don’t know Nick.  You’re kind of like a “beau”dog and a postal worker when it comes to chasing points.  You don’t mean any harm, but you just can’t help but chase them.  The Redskins are struggling and the Rams’ defense is looking great, so I will get on board, just couldn’t resist the joke. Woof!!

Nick Responds:  Just remember….DOGS RULE!!!!!  There is nothing better on a Sunday afternoon, than a football game on the TV, a fire in the fireplace, a beer or scotch in your hands and your bestest Canine friend curled up asleep with his head resting on your feet.   Guy Heaven!

 

Tennessee Titans ($2,300):  Maybe this is just to irritate Nick and his G-Men, but man do they love to turn the ball over.  For a bargain of a price and a home game for the Titans I say, “Gimme some of that chedda!!”  Hey Nick, that’s not a healthy look for you when your face is beat red from anger.  GO TITANS!!! I bet this means no more level 4 dragons in my clan castle.  FYI, totally worth it when the TitansD blows up!!

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Level Four Dragons or Level Three witches, any time you need them.  The Giants are indeed a gift to opposing defenses, but the Titans have only managed more than 10 defensive fantasy points twice this year.  As much as the Giants have proved to be a soft touch for defenses, I don’t see the Titans defense putting up more than a 10 point day.  Still a nice value at $2,300, but not a “BLOW UP”.  Do I sense a side bet here??????????

That is what we have for this week.  We both hope that some of our picks will help you out.  Remember with a little research and creativity you can create that perfect lineup that takes down the big bucks in this week’s collection of big money guaranteed contests.

 

Good Luck This Week!!

Perry04 & Beaudog (woof!)



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