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Saturday, 18 October 2014 Week 7 Bankroll Do's and Dont's (Update 1)

Hey All, 

I will be getting out my next artile to building a lineup later tonight, but needed to send this out as it's own article, because it is fresh in my head and pretty shocking. 

I suggested getting into a Thursday contest, but not taking any players in it. The player percentage owned in last nights contest is unreal.  I am going off of a $2 contest/20k entries from last night and comparing it to a contest I was in last week for $2 with 50k entries.  Close as I could get, but it really shouldn't matter that much when dealing with percentages.   

Percent owned in this weeks Thursday start tournament: 

Brady: 30.2%  Edelman: 18.6% LaFell: 17.7% Gronk: 24.6%  Patriots Defense: 15.3%

Last weeks contest: 

Brady: 4.1%  Edelman: 3.7%  LaFell: 1.3% Gronk: 10.7%  Patriots Defense: 2.0%

Ok so the matchup right?  No.  The Bills and the Jets have similar defenses.  Great against the run, vulnerable against the pass.  Both division matchups, although last week the Patriots were on the road and this week they were at home.  Does that justify this much of a spike in percentages?  Absolutly not.  

If you think it could, then consider this. Here is their salaries from last week to this week. 

Brady: $6000 up to $7600

Edelman: $5900 up to $6000

LaFell: $3400 up to $4300 

Gronk: $5800 up to $6700

Pats D: $3400 up to $4200

It is truely amazing what people do just to see their players live. Every player is up considerable money except for Edelman and in a short week with a similar matchup their percentages owned go through the roof??  Crazy 

So again.  Play the Thursday games without playing the player in those games.  It is a great advantage, unless the game is through the roof in scoring.  Like the IND @ HOU game was.  None the less you have to take this shot. 

Now lets base this off of a 150 point lineup, which will usually cash, but certainly not win anything.  First number is actual points scored last night, second number is Points needed to hit value and third number is percenatge owned. 

All significant players I could find.  Green is good, red is bad, black is netral. 

Brady: 22.5  22.8  30.2%              

Vereen: 28.4  19.4  8.4%

Ivory: 25.5  12.9  5.0% 

Edelman: 9.2  18  18.6%

LaFell: 9.5  12.9  17.7%

Gronk: 11.8  20.1  24.6%

Decker: 10.5  16.8  2.2%

Amaro: 5.2  9.9  5.7%

Ivory: 10  15.9  0.6%

Pats D: 5  12.6  15.3%

The two guys that could have hurt you last night were Vereen and Ivory.  Both were thankfully owned at lower percentages.  Vereen 8.4% and Ivory 5.0%.  

This could be the opposite if we looked at the numbers from last week, but the real point here is the percentage owned comparisons.  

In every contest you get into there will be a player that exceeds value that is not on your team.  However,  if you know people are going to choose a particular player/players at an extreme percentage without any statistical or logical reason then you must fade them 100% of the time.    

"Working hard becomes a habit, a serious kind of fun.  You get self-satisfaction from pushing your self to the limit, knowing that all the effort is going to pay off."  - Mary Lou Retton




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