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Saturday, 27 December 2014

DraftKings Week 17 Strategy: Expert Lineup Analysis

Week 17 Draft Kings X’s & O’s:  A Strategy Discussion Of Who To Put In Your Lineup


Hi All,


First of all, both Dan and I want to wish everyone a great Holiday Season and a very happy and healthy New Year!


Now onto business, in a Week 16 that saw many of the big fantasy names put up below their average performance, I was able to win our 15th H2H contest by a 27 point margin, thanks entirely to the absolute greatness that is Odell Beckham, Jr (38 fantasy points) versus Dan’s pick of AJ Green as his WR1 (can you say a great big Goose Egg for Green, mostly due to his bicep injury that he tried to play through). 


So, its 8-7 in Dan’s favor, with Week 17 either propelling Dan to victory or allowing me to make an unbelievable come back and have a chance to force the competition into a tie.  Dan, if you’re willing, as they say in baseball, “Let’s Play Two”, to avoid the dreaded tie scenario.


Dan responds: You know I am in.  Tying is like kissing your sister, and no one wants to do that.  Let’s get it on!!


So, here we go……


As a reminder, FFCHAMPS.Com has a great tool you can use to help set up your Daily Fantasy Line Up:  Just Click Here to take a quick look at the FFChamps Daily Fantasy Ranks tool.  Just remember to come back and finish reading our article.


OK, back to the business at hand. 


As we do every week, Dan and I will take a look at the match-ups, the player performance, the Draft Kings’ pricing and the Daily Fantasy Rank Tool, of course, to suggest players we think will give you an edge as you put your Draft Kings Roster together and hopefully help you put together that perfect lineup that can take you all the way to big cash win!!!!


As anyone who has played fantasy football knows, Week 17 can be a real challenge as teams that are locked into their playoff slots sit their stud players or only play them for a few series and it becomes very difficult to field a team.  This applies to Daily Fantasy as well, as do you really want to put 15-20% of your salary cap into one player only to have him play 15 snaps and then take a seat.


Well, we have great news for you this year.  There is really only one team that is totally locked into their first round bye, home field throughout the playoffs position, The New England Patriots.  You can pretty confidently believe that Kid Belichick will play Brady, Gronk, etc. for a few series and then look to sit them in the second half, if the game is well in hand.  Regardless, you feel good about not putting a Patriot in your line-up.  The only other team that is locked in is the Indianapolis Colts; however, Head Coach Chuck Pagano has said he intends to play everyone for the full game.  Of course we all believe Head Coaches, right?  At any rate, Andrew Luck is probably not on many people’s radar at $8,700, and with his injury issues, TY Hilton @ $7,100 is probably a fade this week anyway.



Except for these two games, there are many games in the other direction, with both teams battling for a playoff spot or better seeding.  Two games that come to mind immediately are the Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons and the Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers.  With these games there are several studs you will want to target, including Le’Veon Bell@ $9,500, Antonio Brown @ $8,500 and Julio Jones @ $8,100.  Obviously if you pay up for these studs, you will need to find some value plays somewhere else.


That is what we are here for!


As with every week, remember to keep your eye on the injury report and active/inactive list to make sure a player you may have rostered is in fact good to go, also pay attention to any coaches press conferences where they may make announcements concerning sitting some player in prep for the playoffs, the worst thing in daily fantasy is to have a great big zero in your lineup because a player was a late scratch.


So with this in mind, here we go!


Nick’s QBs:

Matt Ryan ($7,700): I have liked Ryan for the last two weeks and I see no reason to get off him now.  He has 20+ fantasy points in each of the past four weeks, even with his number one weapon, Julio Jones, less than 100%.  In what is essentially a home playoff game (whomever wins between the Panthers and Falcons is in the playoffs), there is no reason to think that Matty Ice will have anything but a bang-up game.

DAN’S CHALKBOARD:  Matty Ice has been on a roll.  There should be no shortage in passing attempts in this week 17 playoff game and the Carolina defensive secondary will have their hands full all day with the plethora of talent that is the wide receiving core of Atlanta.


Cam Newton ($7,500): As you can tell, I love this game.  It’s for all the marbles and the top players should step up and take control.  Cam came out of last week’s game without any setbacks and appears to be able to deal with his injuries from the car accident.  He ran well and was able to throw the ball.  Against the atrocious Atlanta defense, Cam should Rock ‘n Roll and is poised for a huge day.

DAN’S CHALKBOARD:  As much as I dislike him as a player, he has a track record for stepping up in big games.  So reluctantly I will get on board.


Dan’s QBs:

Eli Manning ($7,100):  The Eagles defense have allowed 2TD passes in every game this year except three.  Eli was actually one of those three games, but that was way back when ODB was still human and only $4200.  Eli torched a hot Rams’ defense last week and has made me a believer in Good Eli once again.     

Nick’s Chalkboard:  OMG!!!  Dan is back a Giant.  With no home town bias, I am on board with Eli this week; he may be the Manning with the higher point total this week.


Derek Carr ($5,300):  Every game this rookie plays gains him more experience.  He only had 14 points in his first game against the Broncos, but he threw the ball 47 times.  Now he gets to see game film of how the Broncos attacked him last time and hopefully learn from it.  I am willing to take the risk knowing he will most likely go over 40 passing attempts.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  There are a ton of major studs with equally major price tags this week, that should have big games and you want them in your lineup.  But how do you afford them, by going cheap somewhere else.  QB is always an option, because it does not take a huge day for a lower price QB to put up numbers to justify his salary.  In addition to Carr, who is a nice option, another is Teddy Bridgewater @ $5,900.


Nick’s RBs: 

Matt Asiata ($5,000): While this game does not have any playoff implications it is an NFC North rivalry game and the Vikings would definitely like to put a beat down on their Chi-Town rivals.  Asiata may not be fancy but he does get in the end zone a bunch.  Against the horrible Bears defense, Asiata should be able to come close to his 25 point performance from last week and definitely return value for his $5,000 salary.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  He has a great ceiling for this price, but also as a very low floor for this price.  I usually like to take more consistent players in the running back position. He is only a GPP play if you are willing to accept a 5 point dud with 20+ points upside. 


C.J. Anderson ($7,000): Denver needs to win this game to insure they get a much needed bye week.  The Oakland Raiders stink against the run (giving up the 6th most points to RBs).  CJ Anderson has proved his ability to post big games, most recently 28 points versus the Bengals last week.  For $7,000 he is way too good to pass up this week.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  If Denver can win this game on the ground they will be more than happy to do so, saving Peyton from unnecessary contact.  C.J. should be in line for a lot of work in this one. 


Marshawn Lynch ($7,300): The Rams are not invincible versus the run, giving up 128 yards to the Giants last week and 143 yards to the Arizona Cardinals the week before.  Lynch is in Full Beast Mode and the Seattle Seahawks need to win to guarantee home field throughout the playoffs.  Plug him in and watch him go, for only $7,300, Lynch approaches the “steal” level.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Yikes.  This game has fist fight and low scoring written all over it.  St. Louis matches up great with Seattle as evidenced by their win over them earlier in the season.  Lynch was held under 3 yards/carry for an unimpressive 9 point day.  The Seahawks are rolling and the Rams were also up until last week, so maybe Beast mode goes off, but I am not risking that kind of salary in this kind of game.  He has too low of a floor for his salary for this guy. 


Dan’s RBs:

Jonathan Stewart ($5,700):  Anyone remember my rule for the year?  Find the RB that plays against the Falcons and put him in.  Stewart is getting all the work in the backfield for Carolina and I think he is the best running back play of the weekend.     

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I really like Stewart this week; he is actually acting like a real running back.  Amazing.  My only concern is DeAngelo Williams.  He seems to be ready to play.  I still think Stewart gets the start, the bulk of the work and most of the in close touches.  Against the Falcons, I will take the risk that the Panthers will do something dumb and give Williams a lot of carries.


Dan “Boom” Herron ($4,200):  The only tid-bit I got from watching the Dallas/Indy game last week was that Herron got 7 of the teams 10 rushing attempts.  His price it too great to not put him in this weekend against the league’s worst run defense, and I doubt that Indy rests the young running back in what is a meaningless game for them.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I looked at Herron and had many of the same thoughts that Dan outlines above.  However, the Colts continue to give Trent Richardson opportunities and it drives me crazy.  I just don’t know if I can trust the Colts game plan, which ultimately will decide how Herron does this week.  His best game was 16.6 fantasy points, that will not get it done in GPPs, but I like him for cash games.


Matt Forte ($8,500):  In his first meeting with the Vikings, Forte had 26 carries and 6 receptions for a 26point day which included zero touchdowns.  He has a very high floor and a touchdown or two and his ceiling is through the roof this week.  He will be my expensive running back in almost all my contests this week.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Forte is a beast especially in PPR and I can definitely see him putting up a 30 point week against the Vikings.  I see him playing very hard to prove that he was not the cause of the Chicago Bears’ disappointing season..



Nick’s WRs: 

Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,600):  Call me crazy, but I will be trying to fit Odell and his site high $9,600 salary into my lineup.  The Eagles defense is horrendous and Eli has his sights set on Beckham, who is almost a guarantee for 2 touchdowns and could have even more if this game develops into the shootout people are expecting it to be.  Yes he is very pricey but if he puts up another 30+ point performance we are only looking at a cost per point of $320 or less.  I will take that, especially given the cost of my next pick.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I’m on board Nick.  The kid is a “Beast”, don’t worry about affording him, worry about if you don’t find room to play him and he goes off.  Salary doesn’t matter with 40 point upside.


Albert Wilson ($3,800): With 12 catches on 20 targets over the last three weeks, Wilson is fast becoming a favorite target of Alex Smith and I am predicting that he will be the first Kansas City Chiefs WR to catch a TD pass this year.  I can definitely see a 20 point day for this young receiver in a game that the Chiefs have to win if they have any hope of making the playoffs.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Does anyone know I am a volume junkie?  Well, I am and Wilson is getting enough volume to easily pay off his salary.  Great pick.


Roddy White ($6,300):  Julio Jones will be healthier this week, drawing more attention from the Panthers’ secondary, and I have a gut feeling that this could be one of those big games for both of Atlanta’s top WRs.  White tends to get double digit targets and if a couple are in the Red Zone a 20+ day is almost assured.  Also supporting my interest in Roddy is the fact that the Carolina Panthers secondary is giving up the 13th most points to WR2s.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  White has a 5 game streak against the Panthers with at least one touchdown.  I don’t see that steak ending this week.  Sign me up.


Dan’s WRs:

Calvin Johnson ($8,700):  The Packers always seem to give up big numbers to big wide receivers at home.  The Pack usually plays great at home and scores a ton of points leading to opposing wide receivers getting a lot of volume.  Just think of Julio Jones from a couple of weeks ago. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I am not going to try and argue against Calvin.  While Stafford is struggling, since getting fully healthy, Calvin has been getting it done.  I can definitely see him going to the coaches and Stafford and saying “just throw me the ball 20 times”, I can win this for us.  I definitely see a two TD day for Calvin, with a ton of catches.


Javaris Landry ($5,400):  Landry has 8 catches in three of his last four games and 6 catches in the other one.  Although his yardage totals are not that great, this is a great week to change that given the weaknesses in the Jets secondary. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Dan loves the volume guys and in Draft Kings PPR format, Jarvis Landry against the atrocious Jets secondary is a PPR beast.  He has a great floor and a TD gives him a real nice upside.  I like the pick.


Donte Moncrief ($4,600):  Donte should see a lot of action in this game as I see the Colts resting the sore hamstring of Hilton and the old legs of Wayne.  He is in for a lot of work this week and comes in at a great price.  If you need more roster room, I also like Hakeem Nicks for the same reason, but think the team will lean more on Moncrief. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Moncrief definitely flashed brightly but has come down to earth lately.  It’s actually a strange situation, where Moncrief could actually benefit from TY Hilton being on the field.  If he is the only guy out there for the Colts he is still young WR whose route running is still in development.  If Hilton is out there, and Moncrief can run deep with single coverage, Luck could find him for some big plays and he could duplicate his week 13 monster of a game.  This pick is a high risk/high reward with a cheap price tag and definitely worth consideration in GPPs.  I wouldn’t use him in every lineup, but if I can use him and lock up Beckham, Julio and a top RB, then he is worth a play. 


Nick’s TEs: 

Charles Clay ($4,300): The New York Jets are giving up the 7th most points to TEs, making Charles Clay a nice TE option this week, as he appears to be his healthiest in quite a while and is coming off a 6 catch on 10 targets 114 yard performance versus the Vikings last week.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  He has 5+ catches in 5 of the last 6 weeks.  He is a safe option this week even if he doesn’t score a touchdown.  Which he hasn’t done since week 9, if that changes he is a great option this week.  Nice pick Nick.


Tim Wright ($3,000):  Okay I am having a Kid Belichick moment.  I do not see Gronk playing the entire game for the Patriots and the Patriots offense is the Patriots offense which features the TE.  Hence, Tim Wright could be in line for some targets as he becomes the number one TE once Gronk is shown the bench (ok they may have to tie him down to the bench while also hiding his helmet).  This is a completely speculative play, and one which I am only using is the less expensive GPPs ($2 & $5).

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Even if your wrong Nick and Gronk plays as usual, he can still pay off his salary with red zone targets.  I can get on board with this.



Dan’s TEs:

Delaine Walker ($4,400):  The Colts have been bad all year against the tight end position and Walker has a three game streak of 4 catches.  He had a 5-84-1 line in their first meeting for a healthy 19 point performance. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I have like Walker all season and while he has been up and down, he is a huge target and perhaps the best offensive weapon the Titans have.  Good Pick.


Jordan Reed ($3,500):  Dallas is terrible against the tight end position and Reed caught 7 balls against them in their first meeting.  Dallas is worst in the league in receptions given up to the position.  Reed comes in with a great price tag this week for his game potential.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Why not?  This year has been so difficult at the TE position.  Jordan Reed had a very slow start due to injuries and has taken had to deal with different QBs throwing him the ball.  Now that RGIII has “been in the box” for several weeks and is preforming well, I see Reed as good as any other TE option at the price and could possibly have a big game as RGIII main underneath target while DeSean takes the top of the secondary.



Nick’s D/STs:

Houston Texans ($3,200):  I am going to pay up a bit for the Houston Texans defense against the turnover prone Blake Bortles (17 interceptions) and a Jaguar Offensive front that has yielded 66 sacks so far this year.  I also see the Texans and JJ Watt trying to make a final pitch for Watt to be the first Defensive Player to win the MVP since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.  If Houston makes the playoffs and Watt has a “sick” game a case can be made, he probably won’t get it, but I am sure he’d like to have a statement game for the last game of the season.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  JJ Watt vs Bortles, uh….yea…sign me up.


Dan’s D/STs:

Miami Dolphins ($3,100):  It’s the last time of the year I get to take a defense against the turn over prone Jets and I will take advantage of it.  So should you.   

Nick’s Chalkboard:  The Jets stink, as long as they let Geno Smith throw the ball more than 9 times (his total pass attempts the last time the two teams met), the Miami D/ST is a very solid play.  It’s entirely possible that Miami could pitch a shutout, that’s 10 points before we even start talking about sacks, interceptions, etc…



That is what we have for this week.  We both hope that some of our picks will help you out.  Remember with a little research and creativity you can create that perfect lineup that takes down the big bucks in the week 17 big contests over at Draft Kings.


Good Luck This Week!!

Perry04 & Beaudog (woof!)


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