What The Preseason AP and Coaches Polls Got Wrong

While the preseason polls no longer plays an official roll in the eventual College Football Champion, the playoff group of learned elders will no doubt still take them into account.  That being the case, it’s important to understand the biases that the polls has always contained.  In the Coaches Poll, coaches from different conferences always rank their teams higher and iconic teams always get the benefit of the doubt.  In the AP poll, whoever is getting the most media coverage is generally getting the most votes.  With the recent release of the Preseason Polls, let’s take a look at where the Coaches made the biggest mistakes.  Here are the standings according to the polls.

And here are the mistakes made by the Coaches and the Associated Press.

Notre Dame

Coaches Rank – 17, AP Rank - 17

Appropriate Rank – 7

While the Coaches generally sing the praises of any and all historic programs, this is one case where they have actually penalized an iconic program.  This may be residual punishment for the Irish’s poor performance in the National Championship Game two years ago or four loss season last year.  What the pollsters are likely overlooking, however, is the phenomenal recruiting job Notre Dame has been doing the past few years, and the impact Everett Golson’s return will have on the program.  Golson led the team to an undefeated regular season in 2012 and should come close to that mark again this year.

Florida

Coaches Rank – Unranked, AP Rank - Unranked

Appropriate Rank – 14

There is no question the Gators had an abysmal year in 2013, winning only four games and losing the last seven in a row leading to a beat down by in-state rival and eventual National Champion, Florida State.  Given this performance, I understand the skepticism.  However, much like the Irish, the Gators have been recruiting with the best, and bring in a ton of talent.  In addition, they are one of the only SEC power programs to return a starting quarterback, who will finally play in a system built for his talents.  If that’s not enough, what will give Florida an edge this season is playing LSU, Missouri and South Carolina in the Swamp.

Oklahoma State

Coaches Rank – Unranked, AP Rank - Unranked

Appropriate Rank – 18

Another team that was left off the both lists was the Cowboys.  More than likely this is due to the exodus of all but nine starters.  While this is a significant impact to Oklahoma State, this is a team that was largely picked to finish last in the conference in 2013 anyway and went on to only lose two games.  The Cowboys have recruited well to replace their gaps and Mike Gundy is a talented and resourceful Head Coach with a mind for offense, a major key to success in the Big 12.  While Oklahoma State isn’t likely to run the table this year, unranked seems a slight to a team that held their own against eventual Sugar Bowl Champion Oklahoma in the de facto Big 12 Championship game last season.

Michigan

Coaches Rank – Unranked, AP Rank - Unranked

Appropriate Rank – 15

The final team being overlooked by the polls is Michigan.  The Wolverines have been rebuilding the past couple years and are finally on the verge of reestablishing their position as a college football power.  They’ve brought in fantastic recruiting classes the past two years and return starting quarterback and dual threat Devon Gardner.  The greatest hurdle to success for Michigan is likely the new Big Ten Divisions, pitting them against Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State on an annual basis.  The lop sidedness of the divisions means that the Wolverines will likely be a better team that either Wisconsin or Nebraska out of the West, but with a worse record.  They will, however, have the opportunity to show this prowess against a top tier opponent in a bowl game, and my guess is they succeed.