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Friday, 17 October 2014

DraftKings Week 7 Strategy: Expert Lineup Analysis

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Week 7 Draft Kings X’s & O’s:  A Strategy Discussion Of Who To Put In Your Lineup


Hi All,


With a super week by Matt Forte and Demaryius Thomas, I was able to overcome a 3.8 point performance by Frank Gore (I am officially getting off his bandwagon until the 49ers decide to give him the carries he deserves) and put a 17 point victory on Dan in our weekly Head-To-Head contest.  Dan is currently up 3 victories to my 2, but I intend to continue to make this a season long battle.  Good luck this week Dan.


Dan’s Response:  Good win Nick. Enjoy it while it lasts.


Allow us to take a quick moment to congratulate Jquave76 on becoming Draft Kings’ newest Millionaire, and to remind you that again this week, you have a chance to win $1,000,000 in this week’s Millionaire Maker Contest.  That’s right, again this week you can turn $27 into a cool $1,000,000 in cold, hard cash.  (And second place isn’t so bad at $100,000 with 15,500 people overall getting paid). 


If you do not already have a Draft Kings account you can even get into this huge contest for FREE!   All you have to do is go to  Once you register and make a small $25 deposit into your new account, you will be given a FREE $27 entry into this week’s Millionaire Maker Contest and a Free membership to FFChamps (a $59.95 value).  So for only $25, you are getting over $100 of value including a FREE chance at a Million Bucks!


Once you have signed up, come back here and take a look at Dan & my advice and thoughts on whom to put into your lineup. 


As a reminder, FFCHAMPS.Com has a great tool you can use to help set up your Daily Fantasy Line Up:  Just Click Here to take a quick look at the FFChamps Daily Fantasy Ranks tool.  Just remember to come back and finish reading our article.


OK, back to the business at hand. 


As we do every week, Dan and I will take a look at the match-ups, the player performance, the Draft Kings’ pricing and the Daily Fantasy Rank Tool, of course, to suggest players we think will give you an edge as you put your Draft Kings Roster together and hopefully help you put together that perfect lineup that can take you all the way to this week’s One Million Dollar top prize.


Before we start, just as a reminder, while we will not usually highlight the Major Studs at each position, these players, like Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Andrew Luck, Demarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Matt Forte, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell will be an integral part of your lineups.  Our goal here is to also spotlight some of medium, and even, lower priced players who can nicely fill out your lineup.  Thus allowing you to have that perfect combination of Studs and Value players to reach the money and ultimately take down first place.


So, while Dan and I will not specifically recommend many of these Studs in our discussion below, there are no reasons not to target them for your lineup.  In fact, this week, Aaron Rodgers at $8,800, Arian Foster at $8,300, Jordy Nelson at $8,200, Dez Bryant at $7,500 and Demaryius Thomas at $8,000 provide excellent value and you should seriously consider at least a couple of them as the core of your lineup this week.  Just realize that if/when you do, you will have to work hard to find good value (i.e. low price/high production) in the other roster slots.


That is what we are here for!


Remember the Eagles and Buccaneers are on bye this week, so even though he ran wild last week, you will not be able to put LeSean McCoy in your lineup.  Also remember that there are some big injuries out there, such as Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson, so keep an eye on the injury report, the last thing you want is to have a player in your lineup that is not on the field.


So with this in mind, here we go!


Nick’s QBs:

Ben Roethlisberger ($5,700): Big Ben has had a tough couple of weeks on the road and his price reflects this having dropped down to a very low, $5,700.  This year at home (wks 1 & 4), Roethlisberger has averaged over 300 yards passing and over 23 fantasy points.  I see this game versus the 25th ranked against QBs, Houston Texans as an excellent bounce back opportunity and at a price too good to pass up.  The one caveat is whether, J. Clowney will be back or not.  Right now, it is about 50/50 according to his coach.  Keep an eye on this, if Clowney is ruled out, I am all in on Big Ben, if Clowney plays, I still like Roethlisberger at this price, but my expectations are a bit lower.

DAN’S CHALKBOARD:  Can’t argue with that price tag. 


Kirk Cousins ($7,400): Cousins got it done last week with 354 yards, 2 touchdowns and 22 fantasy points.  If he can cut down on his INTs, his point totals can be even better.  Against the 24th ranked Titans defense (vs. QBs), Cousins is a nice moderately price QB who should provide at least 20 points.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  The Titans’ cornerbacks are not very good, and the receiving trio of Jackson/Garcon/Reed should be able to get separation all day.  Nice pick.


Dan’s QBs:

Cam Newton ($8200):  Cam got it going with his legs last Sunday topping 100 rushing yards.  Green Bay is notoriously bad against mobile Quarterbacks.  Now their top two cornerbacks (Tramon Williams, Sam Shields) are dealing with injuries and neither has practiced as of Wednesday.  It will be a slight drawback if Kelvin Benjamin can’t pass concussion protocol before the game, but either way I like Cam in this one. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Cam started off slow this year due to his injuries, but has definitely come on strong as he gets back to 100%.  It’s looking good for Benjamin (keep an eye on active/inactive list on Sunday) and this game should be a shootout.  I also like Cam this week as he puts this team on his back and goes toe to toe with Rodgers and company.


Matt Stafford ($7,000):  With a bad game last week and Calvin Johnson not playing, Stafford’s price tag plummeted. I can’t remember the last time or if ever Stafford was this affordable.  He has certainly not dipped below 8k this year.  It is looking like Reggie Bush is returning, and Golden Tate III has served well in the WR1 spot.  The Saints with their high scoring offense and there bad defense will be exactly what he needs to get back on track.    

Nick’s Chalkboard:  His price is just too good to pass up; though I think him success or failure may rest on Bush, Tate and company breaking some big plays after the catch.


Nick’s RBs:

Arian Foster ($8,300): Foster is the third most expensive RB this week, but against Steelers run defense that allowed 155 yards and 3 touchdowns to the Cleveland RBs last week, Foster, who is averaging 24 FFPG, is a Stud you can build your lineup around.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  He always has a great workload.  One of my favorite weekly backs when healthy.  He should be able to run wild against the defense formerly known as The Steel Curtin. 


Ben Tate ($5,300): Tate gets the Jacksonville Jaguars this week and Tate has established himself as the number one option for the Browns.  As long as he stays healthy he should always be a consideration and this week versus the Jaguars he is an inexpensive no-brainer.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Isiah Crowell did have 11 attempts last week but Tate over doubled him with 25 in a blowout win against the Steelers.  They should have the lead most of the day against the Jaguars and I like him getting similar touches this week.  Nice pick Nick.


Antone Smith ($3,800): FREE ANTONE SMITH!!! I am going to personally start an email campaign to get the Falcons to give the ball to Antone Smith more often.  Here is his stat line for this season, 23 touches, and 5 touchdowns!!!  He is averaging 12 FFPG, not bad for only $3,800.  Obviously this is an extremely “high risk/high reward” play as there will be a game(s) sometime where he gets his 4 touches and does absolutely nothing.  However, if using him and his $3,800 in the Flex allows me to stack up a Rodgers/Nelson or Manning/Thomas; I am willing to take that risk, especially in the Guaranteed Prize Pool contests where you have to take some risks to place high.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  You know you’re a 2-4 team when you have a game changing back that never touches the ball.  You can’t fix ignorance overnight.  He is only in 15% of the total offensive snaps on average or roughly 10 snaps a game.  I can’t support him.  He will give a dud week before a stud week with those numbers.


Dan’s RBs:

Jamaal Charles ($6,700):  Why is he only $6700?  Sure the Chargers’ run defensive is better than most, but coming off a bye, he will get a lot of action.  He went off last year (week 12) against them for 115 yards 2TDs and 4 receptions for 42 yards.  That’s 34.7 points.  Give me 75% of that production and it’s still a steal.  Knile Davis played the week 17 (KC clinched playoff) game against them last year and had 22.6 points as well.  Get him in your lineup.      

Nick’s Chalkboard:  With his injury and the Chiefs mediocre start, Charles has gotten lost in the shuffle and the general weekly “who is the best pickup this week” noise.  Charles was a consensus top 3 fantasy player and with a week of rest should be ready to explode.


Andre Ellington ($6,500):  He is up from $5100 last week, but I love running backs that get high snap counts and can take it to the house from anywhere.  Palmer looks to be back and they face the Raiders’ 5th worst defensive team against RB1.  His ceiling is quite high.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  Ellington is the proto-type back for PPR scoring in fantasy football.  Forget stats and all, when I watch the Cardinals game he just seems like the most dynamic player on the field.  I like having him in my lineups.


Lamar Miller ($5,300):  With the season ending injury to Knowshon Moreno, Miller will see a large workload this week in a fair matchup against the Bears.  Don’t be discouraged by his performance last week against my Packers.  He looked a lot better than his stats reflected.  A knee injury has him on the injury report, and although he didn’t practice Wednesday it doesn’t sound to be serious.  Be sure to stay updated on it if he finds your lineup though.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I can’t really argue against Miller, but just a gut thing says that up in Chi-town, with Dolphins behind, he may not get the work he needs to put up the numbers.  If he’s what fits in your lineup, OK, but I am not picking him first and then building a team around him.  (By the way, this statement now guarantees that he is going to go off.)



Nick’s WRs:

Alshon Jeffrey (6,600) & Brandon Marshall ($6,300): This is a two for one.  With Marshall looking healthier and healthier and Jeffrey getting it done week in and week out, both of these WRs at their rather middling prices are a good value.  While Miami has shown some strength against the pass, the Bears are at home and the Dolphins did give up 242 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Packers wide receivers last week.  Again, looking at a risky play, with the potential for a large reward, a Cutler/Marshall/Jeffrey stack could take you all the way.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  It would be easy to say take the cheaper one.  It would be smart to split exposure to both guys throughout your lineups.  I’m with Nick, like them both. However, I am against the triple stack in big GPP play, smaller tournaments yes as you don’t need as much to win, Sunday Million I wouldn’t triple stack if I was trying to win it.  


Davante Adams ($3,900): Adams has solidified himself as the Packers’ WR3 and has clearly earned Aaron Rodgers’ trust over the last couple of games.  Just look who Rodgers chose to throw the “Marino spike” to in last week’s game with time running out.  At $3,900, Adams fits nicely into the WR3 or Flex spot and should be good for 10-12 points, with the potential for more if he gets into the end zone.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I am like.  What the heck Nick!!  This is my guy! I was about to text him then remembered that this is Daily Fantasy Football and we can both have him.  His big national break out game is coming, roster him in GPP games while cheap and fairly unknown.  I keep hearing locally about how much he and Rodgers talk.  Smart rookie. 


Dan’s WRs:

Golden Tate III ($5,900):  He was very highly owned last week, and hopefully his performance left a sour taste in the mouth of all his owners.  Detroit controlled the clock and the game last week, which hurt his numbers.  This week against the Saints there will be a lot more action and scoring.  Stack Stafford/Tate for $12.9K and thank me later.            

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I agree.  I like the stack.


Wes Welker ($3600):  Oh Welker..welker..welker.  He had only one target for eight yards last week, for a whopping 1.8 fantasy points.  Huh, what to do with that?  I say we take advantage.  The 49ers are the second worst team in the league against the WR3 position.  Hopefully he is lined up against struggling CB/FS Jimmy Ward and exploits that matchup all day.  For $3600 it’s definitely worth a shot.

Nick’s Chalkboard:   I just don’t know about Welker.  He just doesn’t seem to be on Peyton’s radar and with E. Sanders and J. Thomas catching the intermediate passes and D. Thomas taking everything around to the house, I just can’t trust him.  Love his price, but his production has just not been there.


Rueben Randle ($5300):  The Cowboys had their best game of their year, and the Giants had their worst.  So Dallas should blow them out?  It will most likely be the opposite. This is exactly the time for us to scratch our heads next week and say maybe the Cowboys aren’t for real.  Rueben Randle is the number one receiver now that Victor Cruz is hurt and his targets alone will justify his price tag.  Manning/Randle stack for 11.5K anyone?  If they go off, you get separation value as they should be under owned in most contests.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I have been a Randle fan all season, especially as his price has remained relatively constant in the middling range.  Eli looks for him early and often and while he has not put up huge numbers yet, this could be the start of something this week.


Nick’s TEs:

Dwayne Allen ($3,700): The Bengals are 29th versus TEs, Andrew Luck likes throwing to his TEs, and Dwayne Allen has four TD catches this season.  For $3,700, this spells good value at TE.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I am just not a fan of guys that need a TD to be credible.  There are 17 TEs with more targets on the year.  However, when targeted in the red zone it usually results in a TD. 


Larry Donnell ($3,500): I am going to stay on the Donnell band wagon one more week.  In the first 4 weeks of the season the Cowboys gave up 6 TDs and 20, 30, 29, 33 fantasy points to TEs (V. Davis, D. Walker, J. Cook & J. Graham).  In the last couple of weeks, the Giants offense has seemed to get away from the TE, with the Victor Cruz injury, I see a reversal of this trend.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  I have been curious as to why the sudden stop in production for Donnell.  Listening to the game Sunday night, the announcers commented by saying Coughlin said he got a big head after the three TD performance a couple weeks ago.  Is he in the Coughlin/Manning dog house?  Loosing Victor Cruz may burst him out of there if so.  They will need him.  I’ll risk $3500 for a guy with his upside.


Dan’s TEs:

Jordan Cameron ($4,600):  This will be the last week he is this cheap as long as he remains healthy.  He will start being recognized as a top 5 TE as he and Brian Hoyer reunite their success from last year.  Oh yea, the Jaguars stink against the TE position as well. 

Nick’s Chalkboard:  I was looking at Cameron this week as well, but decided to go Donnell as my second recommendation.  I totally agree, enjoy Cameron’s relatively cheap price this week.  Next week he’s probably up in the $5,500 range.


Scott Chandler ($4,000):  He has 6 targets and 9 targets since Kyle Orton took over duties in week five.  He could be a sneaky good play this week as long as the targets continue.

Nick’s Chalkboard:  The thought of having a player who depends on Kyle Orton to throw him the ball, makes me cringe.  I see his 19.5 point performance last week as his max and he this week he should “regress back to the mean” and have an 8-10 point performance.  A nice safe pick, which unless you go big at TE (i.e. Julius Thomas) is really all you are looking for.


Nick’s D/STs:

Cleveland Browns ($3,000):  The Cleveland Browns put a licking on the Steelers last week and they get rookie QB Blake Bortles and the Jaguars (the 31st ranked offense) this week.  They should be able to stuff the Jaguars and if they can get a couple of turnovers should be good for 10+ fantasy points.

Dan’s Chalkboard:  Very much agree.  Browns’ defense is getting it done and Blake Bortles is not.


Seattle Seahawks ($3200):  Here for the second week in a row for me.  Austin Davis has had some bright spots, but when the Seahawks stop the run they make QBs like Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning look bad.  They will stop the run this week and Davis will look lost all day.  

Nick’s Chalkboard:  The Seahawks remain a top defense, but they have not been getting the turnovers this year which made them such a great Fantasy defense last year.  This could be the game where they intimidate the young QB and rack up some turnovers and points. 



That is what we have for this week.  We both hope that some of our picks will help you out.  Remember with a little research and creativity you can create that perfect lineup that takes down the big bucks in this week’s HUGE, SPECTACULAR, Millionaire Maker contest.


Good Luck This Week!!

Perry04 & Beaudog (woof!)


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