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Thursday, 23 October 2014

NFL Fantasy Week 7: Game by Game Analysis

Sammy Watkins

Welcome to Week 8!  Once again there are only 2 teams on BYE this week, so there are 15 games.


In the 15 games last week, I picked 15 breakout players, 15 busts, 15 super sleepers and 30 Lottery Tickets.

Let's review how I did in Week 7:


  • 8 Breakouts correct (52% correct for the season)
  • 11 Busts correct (58.5% correct for the season)
  • 8 Sleepers (36% correct for the season)
  • 10 Lottery Tickets correct (30% correct for the season)



Good Call of the week: Sammy Watkins - 9 catches for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns, I would say that qualifies for a breakout game.

Bad Call Of The Week: Larry Fitzgerald - I give up...


Just in case you have forgotten or are new to this... here are my definitions:

Breakout Potential: This is the player that has the most upside in this match-up. It may be a top player that will shine a little brighter than expected or a player that isn't necessarily a must start that will exceed expectations.

Bust Watch: The player with the most to downside and the most to lose. Will likely underperform this week.

Super Sleeper:  This is a player that is likely buried on someone's bench or a free agent that has the opportunity to surprise with a decent fantasy game.

Lottery Tickets: Feeling Lucky? Want to start a player that the league may laugh at you when you start, but will bow to you when you are right... try one of these players. WARNING: They are called Lottery Tickets for a reason, most won't pan out... so choose wisely... or play it safe and just stash one of these guys on your bench so you can lament later in the week, "AHH!! I ALMOST STARTED HIM!"


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos


  • Breakout Potential: Antonio Gates - Gates has proven that he is far from over the hill and Philip Rivers will depend on him heavily tonight to counter The Broncos' pass rush.
  • Bust Watch: Ronnie Hillman - San Diego has a pretty good run defense and this game will likely be a pass heavy affair.
  • Super Sleeper:  Keenan Allen - Allen has gone from everyone's favorite young wide receiver to build on last year's success to one of the most frustrating players to own in Fantasy Football.
  • Lottery Tickets: DEN DST, Nick Novak



Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

  • Breakout Potential: Joique Bell - The Falcons are not very good at stopping running backs and Bell should have a very good week in London.
  • Bust Watch: Roddy white - Detroit has done well to shut down wide receiver and only typically let one receiver hurt them, look for White to have a tough morning.
  • Super Sleeper:  Steven Jackson - Yet another former stud that has performed so poorly this season, he has been down graded to a sleeper.
  • Lottery Tickets: Corey Fuller, Devin Hester



Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

  • Breakout Potential: Marshawn Lynch - Who thinks Carolina has a good run defense?  If your hand is up, I'm guess you are a fan of the Atlanta Falcons.  Bad defense + 2 game losing streak = back to basics, Seattle will run the ball early and often.
  • Bust Watch: Doug Baldwin - Good Matchup with no Percy Harvin would lead many to expect Baldwin to have a great game this week.  Watch for Carolina to
  • Super Sleeper:  Jonathan Stewart - Running backs have had success against Seattle over tha last couple weeks, Stewart may be able to find some success this week as well.
  • Lottery Tickets: Jason Avant, Jermaine Kearse



Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

  • Breakout Potential: Giovanni Bernard - He will not be as bad as he was last week.
  • Bust Watch: Joe Flacco - He will not be as good as he has been the past few weeks.
  • Super Sleeper:  Cincy DST - They cannot be as bad as they've been the past three weeks... right?
  • Lottery Tickets: Jermaine Gresham, Jacoby Jones



Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Breakout Potential: Miami DST - Jacksonville is always a good matchup for defenses, put that with the fact that Miami has been playing strong defense at times.  Watch for Miami to score a defensive or special team touchdown this week.
  • Bust Watch: Mike Wallace - Jacksonville is playing better on defense and Mike Wallace is poised for a down week.
  • Super Sleeper:  Storm Johnson - Matt Forte had some success on the goal-line last week, Johnson should get some goal-line work again this week.
  • Lottery Tickets: Jacksonville DST, Daniel Thomas



St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Breakout Potential: Dwayne Bowe - St. Louis has allowed some big numbers to wide receivers, this should be Bowe's turn.
  • Bust Watch: Tre Mason - Mason is coming off of a great game, but Kansas City has a pretty good defense and The Rams still won't commit to a single running back, so we could see Zac Stacy or someone else be the primary ball carrier this week.
  • Super Sleeper:  Alex Smith - You can pass on The Rams, Alex Smith passes the ball and is playing The Rams.  He could surprise with a decent day this week.
  • Lottery Tickets: Knile Davis, Tavon Austin



Chicago Bears at New England Patriots

  • Breakout Potential: Brandon Marshall - Squeaky wheel gets the grease, Cutler will focus on getting Marshall about 10 or more targets and a touchdown (or two).
  • Bust Watch: Shane Vereen - It's Bill Belichick, he doesn't like you anymore than you like him.
  • Super Sleeper:  Jonas Gray - He should take over the Stevan Ridley touches, but then again... this is Bill Belichick that we are talking about, so no one really knows 
  • Lottery Tickets: Danny Amendola, Chicago DST



Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

  • Breakout Potential: Buffalo DST - Buffalo has a strong defensive team and New York has been turnover prone this season.  The Jets played strong last week, but Geno Smith isn't going to wake up this week and be an elite quarterback.
  • Bust Watch: Chris Johnson - That defense that was mentioned about is very strong against the run.
  • Super Sleeper:  Percy Harvin - He's only been there a week, but he is the kind of player that typically gives Buffalo problems 
  • Lottery Tickets: Robert Woods, Jace Amaro



Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccanneers

  • Breakout Potential: Cordarrelle Patterson - Tampa Bay, the cure for your receiving slump.
  • Bust Watch: Mike Evans - Glennon likes Vincent Jackson and Evans may not be 100% healthy yet.
  • Super Sleeper:  Bobby Rainey - Rainey could find the end zone this week.
  • Lottery Tickets: Rhett Ellison, Austin Seferian-Jenkins


 JJ Watt

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

  • Breakout Potential: Houston DST - A good defense against a rookie quarterback in his first NFL start... and Jadeveon Clowney may play this week.
  • Bust Watch: Arian Foster - Tennessee could limit Foster's production.
  • Super Sleeper:  Justin Hunter - He should rebound from his 6 yard performance in Week 7.
  • Lottery Tickets: Damarias Johnson, Zach Mettenberger



Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

  • Breakout Potential: LeSean McCoy - The Cardinals are tough to run against, but McCoy is coming off of the BYE and should be primed for a strong week.
  • Bust Watch: Jeremy Maclin - Arizona will make another receiver beat them this week, his ceiling is likely around 60 yards.
  • Super Sleeper:  Stefan Taylor - He is practicing with the starters all week while Andre Ellington rests his foot.
  • Lottery Tickets: Jordan Matthews, John Carlson



Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns

  • Breakout Potential: Ben Tate - Oakland, like Carolina and Atlanta, seem to enjoy watching running backs run all over them.
  • Bust Watch: Darren McFadden - Cleveland let Denard Robinson run all over them last week, Coach Pettine will likely have his defense ready to stop that from happening again this week.
  • Super Sleeper:  Derek Carr - He is developing some chemistry with his receiving corps.
  • Lottery Tickets: Denarius Moore, Miles Austin



Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Breakout Potential: Ahmad Bradshaw - Steelers let Arian Foster rush for 102 yards last week, with Trent Richardson on the injury report, this could be a good week for Bradshaw.
  • Bust Watch: Colts DST - They will not dominate The Steelers like they did The Bengals last week.  Le'Veon Bell makes it very difficult for teams to sack the quarterback with his ability to catch the ball out the backfield.
  • Super Sleeper:  Hakeem Nicks - With Reggie Wayne potentially missing this game due to injory, Nicks opportunities will increase.
  • Lottery Tickets: LaGarrette Blount, Colby Fleener


 Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

  • Breakout Potential: Drew Brees - This game is going to have lots of scoring.  Brees will have over 300 yards and at least 3 touchdowns this game... and that still may not be enough to win.
  • Bust Watch: Mark Ingram - The running game will likely be non-existent by the second half of this game.
  • Super Sleeper:  Brandin Cooks - Down week last week, but he should respond and potentially even catch one of Brees' touchdowns.
  • Lottery Tickets: Travis Cadet, James Starks



Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

  • Breakout Potential: Jordan Reed - Dallas has allowed a lot of production from the Tight End position and Reed looks to be healthy.
  • Bust Watch: DeMarco Murray - The Redskins are very good against the run and could hold Murray under 100 yards and keep him out of the end zone.
  • Super Sleeper:  Alfred Morris - After a couple bad weeks (136 total yard in his last 3 games), he slips down to the sleeper section.  Historically he has performed well against The Cowboys.
  • Lottery Tickets: Colt McCoy, Gavin Escobar




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