Week 9 is in the books and there wasn’t as much turmoil as there usually is in a given week. Six teams - the Falcons, Bills, Bears, Lions, Packers and Titans will return refreshed after taking their week of rest. This will be another hard week that sees many owners wishing they built their lineup around having one specific week off, but don’t worry, that’s what I’m here for. Hopefully plenty of owners are still in the hunt. I wrote an article last week to help identify players who have favorable schedules, please feel free to check it out.
Teams on their bye this week are the Texans, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Chargers and Redskins. There is plenty of talent there to build a lineup so there may be some owners stuck with rolling out the skeleton crew. Ownership percentages are for ESPN and Yahoo leagues respectively.
Quarterbacks
“Hot Hands”
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (40.4%/57%): Tannehill has turned into an absolute stud since his bye week. His most recent performance totalled 288 yards on 24 completions, three touchdowns and no picks. Over the last four games, he’s thrown for less than 200 yards once and has a 8:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s also rushing more and more effectively. He has totals of 49, 48, 48, and 47 yards over his past four games respectively. He is quietly entering into the QB1 conversation and is owned in less than half of ESPN leagues.
Mark Sanchez, Eagles (0.4%/5%): Nick Foles is out at least six weeks with a broken collarbone. That puts him out of your lineup until about Week 15 or Week 16. Sanchez threw for 202 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Foles Sunday. Despite his shortcomings as the Jets’ starter for years, he could be a decent quarterback replacing Foles for the rest of the season. The Chip Kelly system is the main reason for that speculation and defenses will always have to stay honest against LeSean McCoy. Sanchez could be a rollercoaster but I think he’ll have more good games than bad.
Mike Glennon, Buccaneers (3.6%/7%): There has been speculation that he may be benched in favor of a healthy Josh McCown. But at this point, for the one-win Bucs, they should stick with the young gun. With the playoffs out of reach, why turn to a 35 year-old quarterback instead of giving 24 year-old Glennon as much experience as possible in hopes of developing him? He sees a relatively easy road the next few games in the Falcons and Redskins who should buoy his numbers and keep him in the QB2 conversation for anybody in 2-QB leagues.
Alex Smith, Chiefs (35.9%/46%): Although he gets the Bills defense who have 18 interceptions this week, he is known as a game manager and that is just what he is. He’s only thrown four interceptions all year, albeit three came in Week 1 so we can’t say he hasn’t thrown multiple picks in a game. I don’t think he throws more than one this week if he throws any and he’ll be a solid option for those with quarterbacks on bye.
“Dynasty”
Zach Mettenberger, Titans (1.2%/2%): He threw for almost 300 yards, two touchdowns and one pick in his debut start two weeks ago. The Titans didn’t play this weekend as its their bye week and that can only mean good things for the chemistry of this offense. If he’s given the keys to the team the rest of the season, he could put in some good games but not without some growing pains. Right now, he’s a rookie to watch but not depended on with a tough schedule upcoming.
Bye Week Fliers: Brian Hoyer, Browns. Kyle Orton, Bills.
Running Backs
“Hot Hands”
Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Even with so much up in the air regarding his suspension, Peterson did accept a deal on his court case and pleaded no contest (which is slightly different than just "guilty" or "not guilty").That being said, the NFL will have to make a decision to reinstate him after serving the 8 game suspension. He may be eligible to play as early as Week 11 (Vikings on a bye in Week 10). We say "MAY be able to play" because the NFL has yet to determine if they are going to continue his suspension. It's worth taking a chance on and picking him up this week.
Tre Mason, Rams (49%/37%): Who to own in the Rams backfield - Mason or Cunningham? The answer is definitely not Zac Stacy anymore. Mason is the first running back to own after getting another start and racking up 19 carries, especially if you are not in a PPR league. Cunningham will continue to take snaps away from Mason because Mason doesn’t play a role in the passing game. It is rare to find a player who will have workhorse-like carries this late in the year so he should be owned just based on the opportunity.
Benny Cunningham, Rams (8.3%/17%): Cunningham is still the Rams’ primary receiving back as he caught three balls on three targets for 38 yards. Those 38 yards were good enough for him to be the leading receiver for the Rams this week as well. That is not good, but it shows that Cunningham is a part in the game plan. Since Cunningham is clearly behind Mason in carries, you would have to be in a PPR league for Cunningham to be relevant. He’s worth being stashed for matchups where his receiving abilities will be highlighted.
Matt Asiata, Vikings (26.8%/31%): He’s on a bye this week but he has to be mentioned based on his 3-touchdown performance on Sunday afternoon. He’s still the goal-line back for the Vikings and if you’re desperate he’s worth possible flex starts against the porous Bears and Packers in the couple weeks after his bye week. Those matchups give Asiata a good chance of scoring.
Theo Riddick, Lions (2.1%/5%): Regardless of Reggie Bush’s injury status, the Lions have said they will keep Riddick involved. That is not good news for Bush owners so don’t forget about Riddick after his bye in Week 9. He’s someone to wait and see how many touches he gets and what he does with them. If for some reason Bush can’t play or is limited against the Dolphins, Riddick gets a bump to a low-level flex play.
“Dynasty”
Terrance West, Browns (31%/23%): He out-touched Ben Tate, 16-14 on Sunday and even though Tate was trusted to run out the clock, West was the better running back. This backfield has changed hands frequently this season so it’s a situation to monitor. I picked West as the inevitable starter coming into the season because he had the most upside. Tate isn’t banged up at the moment so he will continue to at least split carries with West limiting both players fantasy value but I still think West is the one to own in the future if you can stash him.
Jonas Gray, Patriots (17.6%/18%): He wasn’t exactly the Patriots runner between the tackles against the Broncos Sunday that everyone thought coming off a 17 carry game two weeks ago. Still, he is the Patriots “big back” and his stats will depend on the game plan. Rookie James White has been a healthy scratch and both Brandon Bolden’s and Shane Vereen’s contracts are up at the end of the year so the rest of the way could be a bit of an audition for Gray. He’s worth stashing in dynasty or keeper leagues because of his potential for next year and could even have some good games peppered over the rest of the year.
Bye Week Fliers: Toby Gerhart, Jaguars. Charles Sims, Buccaneers. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers.
Wide Receivers
“Hot Hands”
Mike Evans, Buccaneers (31.8%/61%): He is most likely already owned in your Yahoo league, but if you’re in ESPN leagues, he may not be. He doesn’t have a very consistent or accurate quarterback which will hold him back but he has the physical ability to compensate more than some other receivers. He has easy matchups against the Falcons and Redskins to help push you towards the playoffs. He should also be a great pick for keeper or dynasty leagues to see if the Bucs can right the ship at quarterback.
Martavis Bryant, Steelers (22.1%/43%): He now has five touchdowns since his debut just three weeks ago. He is for real and is clearly an important player in balancing out defenses who choose to shift coverage to Antonio Brown. He is a WR3/flex option as Ben Roethlisberger isn’t going to throw six touchdowns per game consistently. He is usually looked to after Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell to score so he holds the upper hand over Markus Wheaton.
Harry Douglas, Falcons (1.9%/3%): This week, the Falcons have a matchup against the defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season - the Bucs. The Falcons had a much needed bye week last week and should come out firing on all cylinders against a team they decimated in Week 3. Douglas had caught 2-of-2 for 14 yards and a touchdown before he left that game with an injury. He has a high chance of scoring again against the Bucs defense so I see him as a WR3/flex this week.
Kenny Britt, Rams (8.6%/9%): While Benny Cunningham was the Rams leading “receiver”, Britt was not far behind. He caught the lone touchdown pass of the day from Austin Davis but totaled only 32 yards on two catches. It was a forgetful performance buoyed by the touchdown but besides Jared Cook, Britt seems to be the next go-to man for Davis. He is not going to be very relevant unless he gets into the endzone but is mentioned because the Rams don’t have much to throw to after Brian Quick was lost for the season. He’s only worth consideration in deeper leagues or if you are desperately thin at receiver.
“Dynasty”
Jarvis Landry, Dolphins (7.8%/8%): He continues to catch almost everything that is thrown his way and is now clearly ahead of Brian Hartline in the pecking order. Ryan Tannehill is turning into a star before our eyes and Landry is going for the ride. He’ll continue to be the second passing option behind Mike Wallace. With matchups that will require Tannehill to throw against because of their run defenses, Landry should continue to see five to seven targets per game as he grows with Tannehill. He’s worth stashing now while he is budding.
Bye Week Fliers: Jerricho Cotchery, Panthers. Cecil Shorts III, Jaguars. Markus Wheaton, Steelers. Jordan Matthews, Eagles
Tight Ends
“Hot Hands”
Mychal Rivera, Raiders (2.2%/2%): For the second week in a row, Rivera put up big numbers. He followed his seven catch, 83 yard performance with an eight catch, 38 yard and a touchdown encore. Next week, the Raiders play the Broncos and while that doesn’t bode well for Derek Carr, his receivers don’t get negative points for the interceptions he’ll throw. The Raiders will be playing from behind in this one so Rivera could at least get some garbage time points.
Charles Clay, Dolphins (20.2%/44%): This weekend, we had another Charles Clay sighting. He’s been underwhelming and a dud most of the year. He can’t be dubbed consistent yet but he has shown flashes of his 2013 self over the past few games. He has caught 13 balls for 158 yards and two touchdowns in four games since the Dolphins bye in Week 5. If he can continue his upward swing, he could finish the year strong and be a great late year addition for many fantasy owners.
Owen Daniels, Ravens (28.3%/30%): After a minor knee surgery a few weeks ago, Daniels appears to have not missed a beat. He caught six balls for 53 yards while fellow tight end, Crockett Gillmore was the one who scored a touchdown. Daniels was targeted a team-high nine times Sunday night as he was clearly part of the plan. He’s a low-end TE1 in PPR leagues and much of his value is dependent on touchdowns. He’s not a bad fill-in though for anyone who has a tight end on bye this week.
Coby Fleener, Colts (18.7%/30%): He’s heading into his bye week but he put on quite the performance Monday night. He finished with four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. Fellow tight end Dwayne Allen also caught four balls and a touchdown so this is clearly a job split in two. Although Fleener doesn’t score all that often compared to Allen, he still has the same potential upside. It just depends on who is featured that game. There are worse options if you are streaming tight ends after this week.
“Dynasty”
Tim Wright, Patriots (11%/23%): He put up a complete donut on Sunday against the Broncos. He wasn’t even targeted in the game but that is what comes with being in the Patriots offense. You never know who is going to be involved the most behind Gronk each week but Tim Wright certainly has the tools. He hasn’t had any major yards in any game, topping out at 85 in Week 5, but he’s caught three touchdowns which has helped his fantasy numbers. Hopefully with the Patriots on a bye this week, they can figure out a way to get Wright more involved consistently. Until then, he’s a boom/bust tight end.
Bye Week Fliers: Heath Miller, Steelers. Scott Chandler, Bills. Clay Harbor, Jaguars.
Defenses/ST
Detroit D/ST: Since they were on a bye last week, someone may have dropped them. Make sure to pick them up as they are a top-5 defense.
Steelers D/ST: They are playing the turnover happy Jets who are still unsure of their starting quarterback this week so there’s much to like in this matchup.
Packers D/ST: The Bears are imploding but this one may come back to bite me as they return from their bye.
Ravens D/ST: This unit has created a turnover in every game but two this year. They see the Titans this week who give up the 23rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Kickers
Mason Crosby, Packers: 11/12 FG, 25/25 XP
Graham Gano, Panthers: 17/19 FG, 16/16 XP
Chandler Catanzaro, Cardinals: 16/16 FG, 18/18 XP
Shaun Suisham, Steelers: 14/15 FG, 25/25 XP
Shayne Graham, Saints: 13/14 FG, 24/25 XP
Hi Daily Fantasy Veterans and Rookies,
Week Nine delivered pretty much exactly what we expected with our Shootouts and Defensive Struggles with both of our big games, Broncos/Patriots and Colts/Giants posting 64 points, well over the Vegas lines, while our low scoring game to avoid, the Jets/Chiefs came in at only 34 points. In our big games we had many fantasy studs, including: Tom Brady – 32 points; Gronk – 28.5; Julian Edelman – 30; Peyton – 26 points; Ronnie Hillman – 25; Demaryius – 22; E. Sanders – 28; Eli Manning – 26 (mostly in junk time but in fantasy that’s ok); Odel Beckham, Jr. – 26.6; and Andrew Luck – 33.7. In our negative game, only Percy Harvin had over 22 fantasy points, and with the exception of Eric Decker, no player scored over 20 points.
Hopefully you had most or at least some of these studs in your lineups too and managed to avoid the fantasy busts in the low scoring games, but since this is Daily Fantasy, our teams that took us into the money are no more and we once again, will be building our team from the ground up.
To help you set the optimal team (and hopefully take home some major cash prizes, including yet again another cool $1,000,000 first prize up for grabs in this week’s $2.5 Million Guaranteed contest) each week we look for those games that the odds makers in Vegas see as high scoring affairs, which means a lot of fantasy points should be racked up, and which should be low scoring games where the points will be hard to come by.
To check out the first article of this series for a complete description of the strategy: CLICK HERE
We have a total of six teams on bye this week with some major Fantasy Studs, so it will be even more important this week to find those games where a ton of points will be scored and where you might find the relatively lower priced player (like Jeremy Hill last week who for only $4,000 blew up for 32 points) who could really light it up and take your roster to victory. Teams on bye this week are: Colts; Patriots; Vikings; Chargers; Redskins; and Texans.
Here we go: Looking at Week Ten, there is a single game that meets our 50 point over/under threshold.
Over/Under with Positive Impact on Value: TARGET PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK
Bears/Packers | 53 |
For our negative game(s) we look for games under 42 points.
Over/Under with Negative Impact on Value: AVOID PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK
Chiefs/Bills | 41 |
|
|
Basic strategy with the above information is to look for studs and lower priced value in the “POSITIVE” games and look to avoid most but not all of the players in the “NEGATIVE” games.
Now with our tools (FFC Strength of Schedule, FF Champs Defense Stats Allowed , The FFCPI and the FFC Daily Fantasy Rank Tool) primed and ready to go, we can now review our target games and make some decisions and look for value:
POSITIVE GAMES:
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers:
Both of these teams are coming off a bye week so their offense studs have had plenty of time rest up and get healthy (hello Aaron Rodgers’ hamstring). Neither of these teams have a defense that scares anybody, in week eight, the Packers allowed 44 points to Drew Brees and the Saints and Chicago gave up five TDs to Tom Brady and the Patriots, while giving up a total of 51 points. I don’t know about all of you, but I am totally drooling over this game!
Looking at the Bears, Matt Forte has been a complete monster (especially in PPR) this year averaging 26.2 FFPG and this week he gets the Packers who are giving up an average of 153 combined yards per game to RBs this year. He is expensive at $10,000, but if you combine him with an inexpensive QB who can get you 20 points (Sanchez ??), Forte could be your key to victory.
Jay Cutler is $7,800. If you take out the stinker of a game he had versus Miami (9.9 points), he is averaging around 22 FFPG and worth a look against Packers who are giving up the 9th most fantasy points to QBs.
At WR, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey are averaging only 13 and 15 FFPG respectively, and in week four the Packers held them to 25 points combined (10 for Marshall and 15 for Jeffrey). While the Packers’ secondary has been more porous of late, especially with the absence of Sam Shields (whose status is still cloudy at the time of this writing), Marshall and/or Jeffrey could have a big game, but it is tough to know which one and because of this, I would probably look elsewhere for my WRs.
At $5,600, Martellus Bennett could be a solid play, after a hot start and then a few poor weeks (he didn’t get in the end zone); he rebounded nicely against the Patriots in week eight for 21.5 points. I like him this week.
For Green Bay, here is who you will want in your lineup: Aaron Rodgers - 23 FFPG ($9,400); Jordy Nelson – 21.1 FFPG ($7,600); Randall Cobb – 20.5 FFPG ($7,400); Eddie Lacy – only 14 FFPG but coming off a 29 point performance against the Saints ($6,900); and if you need a low priced, but high potential player in your flex, Davante Adams continues to increase he role in his role in the offense (7 catches for 75 yards against the Saints in week eight), and at only $3,800 he provides strong potential in the Flex position.
If you don’t want to spend the budget on Rodgers at $9,400, a nice play would be to pick up a less expensive QB like Big Ben at $7,500 and then double up on Rodgers’ receivers Nelson and Cobb for only a combined $15,000 to cover the potential for Rodgers “going off” against the Bears.
Before moving on to the “negative” game, we should note that there are several games with an over/under in the 48 to 49 point range. While they don’t meet our 50 point threshold, these games, more blowouts than shootouts, should be considered extremely “juicy”, especially with so many teams on bye this week. Those games are: The Niners @ the Saints; the Bronco @ the Raiders; and the Panthers @ the Eagles.
Players to target are: Brees at only $8,200, that’s cheap for Brees in the DOME!; Manning at $9,700, expensive yes, but he is good for at least 3 TD against the Raiders if not more; Ingram at $5,900, the Saints have rediscovered the run and Ingram has been impressive; Hillman at $6,100 against the 29th worst defense vs. RBs; LeSean McCoy at only $5,600 against a bad Panthers run defense and with a backup QB for the Eagles, McCoy should step up; Jeremy Maclin at $8,300, the man has 46 and 37 fantasy points in his last two games!; Demaryius and E. Sanders ($8,500 & $8,100), these guys are unstoppable; Anquan Boldin ($5,600), he is making the catches, averaging 7 catches per game in last 3 games with 2 TDs; Jimmy Graham is getting healthy and he is relatively cheap at $6,300;and Julius Thomas is also inexpensive at $4,900 and with Wes Welker “Day to Day”, Orange Julius should get many more looks from Manning, just remember the beginning of the year when Welker was out, Julius Thomas went nuts with five TDs in the first 3 games.
Now, on to the games to avoid:
NEGATIVE GAMES: (Remember, a negative game does not mean that all players will stink and not put up fantasy numbers, it just means that there is generally better value to be had elsewhere)
We only have one game in this category this week, and it is really a story of two solid defenses versus one team that doesn’t have a running game (Bills) and one team that has a very pedestrian passing game (Chiefs).
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills:
The Buffalo Bills are eighth against the run and 13th against the pass and the Kansas City Chiefs are 19th versus the run and first against the pass. So, what we have here is defenses that play very strongly against their opponent’s strong suit and are still very solid against the other component.
The Chiefs run Jamaal Charles and Buffalo stops the run, the Bills throw the ball to Sammy Watkins and the Chiefs are demons against the pass. So, what do we do, well we downgrade Charles whose $6,400 salary would normally make us lock him into our lineup and we look at Sammy Watkins at $6,200 and say “maybe not this week”. Alex Smith becomes pretty much unusable and Kyle Orton @$6,700 just seems too pricey against this defense. I don’t think I have to mention the mess that is the Bills backfield.
This one could easily be 17-10, just not enough points for us to spend our budget on. If you want to take a flyer on either Charles or Watkins, I can’t say it’s an absolutely terrible move and if I had to pick one I would say go with Charles.
As for the defenses, both are pretty good plays with the Bills at $3,000 and the Chiefs at $3,400. I would say the Bills are the safer play, with the Chiefs having a bit more upside in terms of point scoring turnovers as the Bills will most likely be passing more with their RB problems.
Well, that is it for this week, remember to do your research, look for more daily fantasy articles in the upcoming days.
If you have any questions, comments or just want to talk fantasy, hit me up on Twitter (@Beaudog2).
Good luck this weekend!!!
Beaudog
Woof!!
Week 9 is in the books and there wasn’t as much turmoil as there usually is in a given week. Six teams - the Falcons, Bills, Bears, Lions, Packers and Titans will return refreshed after taking their week of rest. This will be another hard week that sees many owners wishing they built their lineup around having one specific week off, but don’t worry, that’s what I’m here for. Hopefully plenty of owners are still in the hunt. I wrote an article last week to help identify players who have favorable schedules, please feel free to check it out.
Teams on their bye this week are the Texans, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Chargers and Redskins. There is plenty of talent there to build a lineup so there may be some owners stuck with rolling out the skeleton crew. Ownership percentages are for ESPN and Yahoo leagues respectively.
Quarterbacks
“Hot Hands”
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (40.4%/57%): Tannehill has turned into an absolute stud since his bye week. His most recent performance totalled 288 yards on 24 completions, three touchdowns and no picks. Over the last four games, he’s thrown for less than 200 yards once and has a 8:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s also rushing more and more effectively. He has totals of 49, 48, 48, and 47 yards over his past four games respectively. He is quietly entering into the QB1 conversation and is owned in less than half of ESPN leagues.
Mark Sanchez, Eagles (0.4%/5%): Nick Foles is out at least six weeks with a broken collarbone. That puts him out of your lineup until about Week 15 or Week 16. Sanchez threw for 202 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Foles Sunday. Despite his shortcomings as the Jets’ starter for years, he could be a decent quarterback replacing Foles for the rest of the season. The Chip Kelly system is the main reason for that speculation and defenses will always have to stay honest against LeSean McCoy. Sanchez could be a rollercoaster but I think he’ll have more good games than bad.
Mike Glennon, Buccaneers (3.6%/7%): There has been speculation that he may be benched in favor of a healthy Josh McCown. But at this point, for the one-win Bucs, they should stick with the young gun. With the playoffs out of reach, why turn to a 35 year-old quarterback instead of giving 24 year-old Glennon as much experience as possible in hopes of developing him? He sees a relatively easy road the next few games in the Falcons and Redskins who should buoy his numbers and keep him in the QB2 conversation for anybody in 2-QB leagues.
Alex Smith, Chiefs (35.9%/46%): Although he gets the Bills defense who have 18 interceptions this week, he is known as a game manager and that is just what he is. He’s only thrown four interceptions all year, albeit three came in Week 1 so we can’t say he hasn’t thrown multiple picks in a game. I don’t think he throws more than one this week if he throws any and he’ll be a solid option for those with quarterbacks on bye.
“Dynasty”
Zach Mettenberger, Titans (1.2%/2%): He threw for almost 300 yards, two touchdowns and one pick in his debut start two weeks ago. The Titans didn’t play this weekend as its their bye week and that can only mean good things for the chemistry of this offense. If he’s given the keys to the team the rest of the season, he could put in some good games but not without some growing pains. Right now, he’s a rookie to watch but not depended on with a tough schedule upcoming.
Bye Week Fliers: Brian Hoyer, Browns. Kyle Orton, Bills.
Running Backs
“Hot Hands”
Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Even with so much up in the air regarding his suspension, Peterson did accept a deal on his court case and pleaded no contest (which is slightly different than just "guilty" or "not guilty").That being said, the NFL will have to make a decision to reinstate him after serving the 8 game suspension. He may be eligible to play as early as Week 11 (Vikings on a bye in Week 10). We say "MAY be able to play" because the NFL has yet to determine if they are going to continue his suspension. It's worth taking a chance on and picking him up this week.
Tre Mason, Rams (49%/37%): Who to own in the Rams backfield - Mason or Cunningham? The answer is definitely not Zac Stacy anymore. Mason is the first running back to own after getting another start and racking up 19 carries, especially if you are not in a PPR league. Cunningham will continue to take snaps away from Mason because Mason doesn’t play a role in the passing game. It is rare to find a player who will have workhorse-like carries this late in the year so he should be owned just based on the opportunity.
Benny Cunningham, Rams (8.3%/17%): Cunningham is still the Rams’ primary receiving back as he caught three balls on three targets for 38 yards. Those 38 yards were good enough for him to be the leading receiver for the Rams this week as well. That is not good, but it shows that Cunningham is a part in the game plan. Since Cunningham is clearly behind Mason in carries, you would have to be in a PPR league for Cunningham to be relevant. He’s worth being stashed for matchups where his receiving abilities will be highlighted.
Matt Asiata, Vikings (26.8%/31%): He’s on a bye this week but he has to be mentioned based on his 3-touchdown performance on Sunday afternoon. He’s still the goal-line back for the Vikings and if you’re desperate he’s worth possible flex starts against the porous Bears and Packers in the couple weeks after his bye week. Those matchups give Asiata a good chance of scoring.
Theo Riddick, Lions (2.1%/5%): Regardless of Reggie Bush’s injury status, the Lions have said they will keep Riddick involved. That is not good news for Bush owners so don’t forget about Riddick after his bye in Week 9. He’s someone to wait and see how many touches he gets and what he does with them. If for some reason Bush can’t play or is limited against the Dolphins, Riddick gets a bump to a low-level flex play.
“Dynasty”
Terrance West, Browns (31%/23%): He out-touched Ben Tate, 16-14 on Sunday and even though Tate was trusted to run out the clock, West was the better running back. This backfield has changed hands frequently this season so it’s a situation to monitor. I picked West as the inevitable starter coming into the season because he had the most upside. Tate isn’t banged up at the moment so he will continue to at least split carries with West limiting both players fantasy value but I still think West is the one to own in the future if you can stash him.
Jonas Gray, Patriots (17.6%/18%): He wasn’t exactly the Patriots runner between the tackles against the Broncos Sunday that everyone thought coming off a 17 carry game two weeks ago. Still, he is the Patriots “big back” and his stats will depend on the game plan. Rookie James White has been a healthy scratch and both Brandon Bolden’s and Shane Vereen’s contracts are up at the end of the year so the rest of the way could be a bit of an audition for Gray. He’s worth stashing in dynasty or keeper leagues because of his potential for next year and could even have some good games peppered over the rest of the year.
Bye Week Fliers: Toby Gerhart, Jaguars. Charles Sims, Buccaneers. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers.
Wide Receivers
“Hot Hands”
Mike Evans, Buccaneers (31.8%/61%): He is most likely already owned in your Yahoo league, but if you’re in ESPN leagues, he may not be. He doesn’t have a very consistent or accurate quarterback which will hold him back but he has the physical ability to compensate more than some other receivers. He has easy matchups against the Falcons and Redskins to help push you towards the playoffs. He should also be a great pick for keeper or dynasty leagues to see if the Bucs can right the ship at quarterback.
Martavis Bryant, Steelers (22.1%/43%): He now has five touchdowns since his debut just three weeks ago. He is for real and is clearly an important player in balancing out defenses who choose to shift coverage to Antonio Brown. He is a WR3/flex option as Ben Roethlisberger isn’t going to throw six touchdowns per game consistently. He is usually looked to after Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell to score so he holds the upper hand over Markus Wheaton.
Harry Douglas, Falcons (1.9%/3%): This week, the Falcons have a matchup against the defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season - the Bucs. The Falcons had a much needed bye week last week and should come out firing on all cylinders against a team they decimated in Week 3. Douglas had caught 2-of-2 for 14 yards and a touchdown before he left that game with an injury. He has a high chance of scoring again against the Bucs defense so I see him as a WR3/flex this week.
Kenny Britt, Rams (8.6%/9%): While Benny Cunningham was the Rams leading “receiver”, Britt was not far behind. He caught the lone touchdown pass of the day from Austin Davis but totaled only 32 yards on two catches. It was a forgetful performance buoyed by the touchdown but besides Jared Cook, Britt seems to be the next go-to man for Davis. He is not going to be very relevant unless he gets into the endzone but is mentioned because the Rams don’t have much to throw to after Brian Quick was lost for the season. He’s only worth consideration in deeper leagues or if you are desperately thin at receiver.
“Dynasty”
Jarvis Landry, Dolphins (7.8%/8%): He continues to catch almost everything that is thrown his way and is now clearly ahead of Brian Hartline in the pecking order. Ryan Tannehill is turning into a star before our eyes and Landry is going for the ride. He’ll continue to be the second passing option behind Mike Wallace. With matchups that will require Tannehill to throw against because of their run defenses, Landry should continue to see five to seven targets per game as he grows with Tannehill. He’s worth stashing now while he is budding.
Bye Week Fliers: Jerricho Cotchery, Panthers. Cecil Shorts III, Jaguars. Markus Wheaton, Steelers. Jordan Matthews, Eagles
Tight Ends
“Hot Hands”
Mychal Rivera, Raiders (2.2%/2%): For the second week in a row, Rivera put up big numbers. He followed his seven catch, 83 yard performance with an eight catch, 38 yard and a touchdown encore. Next week, the Raiders play the Broncos and while that doesn’t bode well for Derek Carr, his receivers don’t get negative points for the interceptions he’ll throw. The Raiders will be playing from behind in this one so Rivera could at least get some garbage time points.
Charles Clay, Dolphins (20.2%/44%): This weekend, we had another Charles Clay sighting. He’s been underwhelming and a dud most of the year. He can’t be dubbed consistent yet but he has shown flashes of his 2013 self over the past few games. He has caught 13 balls for 158 yards and two touchdowns in four games since the Dolphins bye in Week 5. If he can continue his upward swing, he could finish the year strong and be a great late year addition for many fantasy owners.
Owen Daniels, Ravens (28.3%/30%): After a minor knee surgery a few weeks ago, Daniels appears to have not missed a beat. He caught six balls for 53 yards while fellow tight end, Crockett Gillmore was the one who scored a touchdown. Daniels was targeted a team-high nine times Sunday night as he was clearly part of the plan. He’s a low-end TE1 in PPR leagues and much of his value is dependent on touchdowns. He’s not a bad fill-in though for anyone who has a tight end on bye this week.
Coby Fleener, Colts (18.7%/30%): He’s heading into his bye week but he put on quite the performance Monday night. He finished with four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. Fellow tight end Dwayne Allen also caught four balls and a touchdown so this is clearly a job split in two. Although Fleener doesn’t score all that often compared to Allen, he still has the same potential upside. It just depends on who is featured that game. There are worse options if you are streaming tight ends after this week.
“Dynasty”
Tim Wright, Patriots (11%/23%): He put up a complete donut on Sunday against the Broncos. He wasn’t even targeted in the game but that is what comes with being in the Patriots offense. You never know who is going to be involved the most behind Gronk each week but Tim Wright certainly has the tools. He hasn’t had any major yards in any game, topping out at 85 in Week 5, but he’s caught three touchdowns which has helped his fantasy numbers. Hopefully with the Patriots on a bye this week, they can figure out a way to get Wright more involved consistently. Until then, he’s a boom/bust tight end.
Bye Week Fliers: Heath Miller, Steelers. Scott Chandler, Bills. Clay Harbor, Jaguars.
Defenses/ST
Detroit D/ST: Since they were on a bye last week, someone may have dropped them. Make sure to pick them up as they are a top-5 defense.
Steelers D/ST: They are playing the turnover happy Jets who are still unsure of their starting quarterback this week so there’s much to like in this matchup.
Packers D/ST: The Bears are imploding but this one may come back to bite me as they return from their bye.
Ravens D/ST: This unit has created a turnover in every game but two this year. They see the Titans this week who give up the 23rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Kickers
Mason Crosby, Packers: 11/12 FG, 25/25 XP
Graham Gano, Panthers: 17/19 FG, 16/16 XP
Chandler Catanzaro, Cardinals: 16/16 FG, 18/18 XP
Shaun Suisham, Steelers: 14/15 FG, 25/25 XP
Shayne Graham, Saints: 13/14 FG, 24/25 XP
Hi Daily Fantasy Veterans and Rookies,
Week Nine delivered pretty much exactly what we expected with our Shootouts and Defensive Struggles with both of our big games, Broncos/Patriots and Colts/Giants posting 64 points, well over the Vegas lines, while our low scoring game to avoid, the Jets/Chiefs came in at only 34 points. In our big games we had many fantasy studs, including: Tom Brady – 32 points; Gronk – 28.5; Julian Edelman – 30; Peyton – 26 points; Ronnie Hillman – 25; Demaryius – 22; E. Sanders – 28; Eli Manning – 26 (mostly in junk time but in fantasy that’s ok); Odel Beckham, Jr. – 26.6; and Andrew Luck – 33.7. In our negative game, only Percy Harvin had over 22 fantasy points, and with the exception of Eric Decker, no player scored over 20 points.
Hopefully you had most or at least some of these studs in your lineups too and managed to avoid the fantasy busts in the low scoring games, but since this is Daily Fantasy, our teams that took us into the money are no more and we once again, will be building our team from the ground up.
To help you set the optimal team (and hopefully take home some major cash prizes, including yet again another cool $1,000,000 first prize up for grabs in this week’s $2.5 Million Guaranteed contest) each week we look for those games that the odds makers in Vegas see as high scoring affairs, which means a lot of fantasy points should be racked up, and which should be low scoring games where the points will be hard to come by.
To check out the first article of this series for a complete description of the strategy: CLICK HERE
We have a total of six teams on bye this week with some major Fantasy Studs, so it will be even more important this week to find those games where a ton of points will be scored and where you might find the relatively lower priced player (like Jeremy Hill last week who for only $4,000 blew up for 32 points) who could really light it up and take your roster to victory. Teams on bye this week are: Colts; Patriots; Vikings; Chargers; Redskins; and Texans.
Here we go: Looking at Week Ten, there is a single game that meets our 50 point over/under threshold.
Over/Under with Positive Impact on Value: TARGET PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK
Bears/Packers | 53 |
For our negative game(s) we look for games under 42 points.
Over/Under with Negative Impact on Value: AVOID PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK
Chiefs/Bills | 41 |
|
|
Basic strategy with the above information is to look for studs and lower priced value in the “POSITIVE” games and look to avoid most but not all of the players in the “NEGATIVE” games.
Now with our tools (FFC Strength of Schedule, FF Champs Defense Stats Allowed , The FFCPI and the FFC Daily Fantasy Rank Tool) primed and ready to go, we can now review our target games and make some decisions and look for value:
POSITIVE GAMES:
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers:
Both of these teams are coming off a bye week so their offense studs have had plenty of time rest up and get healthy (hello Aaron Rodgers’ hamstring). Neither of these teams have a defense that scares anybody, in week eight, the Packers allowed 44 points to Drew Brees and the Saints and Chicago gave up five TDs to Tom Brady and the Patriots, while giving up a total of 51 points. I don’t know about all of you, but I am totally drooling over this game!
Looking at the Bears, Matt Forte has been a complete monster (especially in PPR) this year averaging 26.2 FFPG and this week he gets the Packers who are giving up an average of 153 combined yards per game to RBs this year. He is expensive at $10,000, but if you combine him with an inexpensive QB who can get you 20 points (Sanchez ??), Forte could be your key to victory.
Jay Cutler is $7,800. If you take out the stinker of a game he had versus Miami (9.9 points), he is averaging around 22 FFPG and worth a look against Packers who are giving up the 9th most fantasy points to QBs.
At WR, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey are averaging only 13 and 15 FFPG respectively, and in week four the Packers held them to 25 points combined (10 for Marshall and 15 for Jeffrey). While the Packers’ secondary has been more porous of late, especially with the absence of Sam Shields (whose status is still cloudy at the time of this writing), Marshall and/or Jeffrey could have a big game, but it is tough to know which one and because of this, I would probably look elsewhere for my WRs.
At $5,600, Martellus Bennett could be a solid play, after a hot start and then a few poor weeks (he didn’t get in the end zone); he rebounded nicely against the Patriots in week eight for 21.5 points. I like him this week.
For Green Bay, here is who you will want in your lineup: Aaron Rodgers - 23 FFPG ($9,400); Jordy Nelson – 21.1 FFPG ($7,600); Randall Cobb – 20.5 FFPG ($7,400); Eddie Lacy – only 14 FFPG but coming off a 29 point performance against the Saints ($6,900); and if you need a low priced, but high potential player in your flex, Davante Adams continues to increase he role in his role in the offense (7 catches for 75 yards against the Saints in week eight), and at only $3,800 he provides strong potential in the Flex position.
If you don’t want to spend the budget on Rodgers at $9,400, a nice play would be to pick up a less expensive QB like Big Ben at $7,500 and then double up on Rodgers’ receivers Nelson and Cobb for only a combined $15,000 to cover the potential for Rodgers “going off” against the Bears.
Before moving on to the “negative” game, we should note that there are several games with an over/under in the 48 to 49 point range. While they don’t meet our 50 point threshold, these games, more blowouts than shootouts, should be considered extremely “juicy”, especially with so many teams on bye this week. Those games are: The Niners @ the Saints; the Bronco @ the Raiders; and the Panthers @ the Eagles.
Players to target are: Brees at only $8,200, that’s cheap for Brees in the DOME!; Manning at $9,700, expensive yes, but he is good for at least 3 TD against the Raiders if not more; Ingram at $5,900, the Saints have rediscovered the run and Ingram has been impressive; Hillman at $6,100 against the 29th worst defense vs. RBs; LeSean McCoy at only $5,600 against a bad Panthers run defense and with a backup QB for the Eagles, McCoy should step up; Jeremy Maclin at $8,300, the man has 46 and 37 fantasy points in his last two games!; Demaryius and E. Sanders ($8,500 & $8,100), these guys are unstoppable; Anquan Boldin ($5,600), he is making the catches, averaging 7 catches per game in last 3 games with 2 TDs; Jimmy Graham is getting healthy and he is relatively cheap at $6,300;and Julius Thomas is also inexpensive at $4,900 and with Wes Welker “Day to Day”, Orange Julius should get many more looks from Manning, just remember the beginning of the year when Welker was out, Julius Thomas went nuts with five TDs in the first 3 games.
Now, on to the games to avoid:
NEGATIVE GAMES: (Remember, a negative game does not mean that all players will stink and not put up fantasy numbers, it just means that there is generally better value to be had elsewhere)
We only have one game in this category this week, and it is really a story of two solid defenses versus one team that doesn’t have a running game (Bills) and one team that has a very pedestrian passing game (Chiefs).
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills:
The Buffalo Bills are eighth against the run and 13th against the pass and the Kansas City Chiefs are 19th versus the run and first against the pass. So, what we have here is defenses that play very strongly against their opponent’s strong suit and are still very solid against the other component.
The Chiefs run Jamaal Charles and Buffalo stops the run, the Bills throw the ball to Sammy Watkins and the Chiefs are demons against the pass. So, what do we do, well we downgrade Charles whose $6,400 salary would normally make us lock him into our lineup and we look at Sammy Watkins at $6,200 and say “maybe not this week”. Alex Smith becomes pretty much unusable and Kyle Orton @$6,700 just seems too pricey against this defense. I don’t think I have to mention the mess that is the Bills backfield.
This one could easily be 17-10, just not enough points for us to spend our budget on. If you want to take a flyer on either Charles or Watkins, I can’t say it’s an absolutely terrible move and if I had to pick one I would say go with Charles.
As for the defenses, both are pretty good plays with the Bills at $3,000 and the Chiefs at $3,400. I would say the Bills are the safer play, with the Chiefs having a bit more upside in terms of point scoring turnovers as the Bills will most likely be passing more with their RB problems.
Well, that is it for this week, remember to do your research, look for more daily fantasy articles in the upcoming days.
If you have any questions, comments or just want to talk fantasy, hit me up on Twitter (@Beaudog2).
Good luck this weekend!!!
Beaudog
Woof!!
Quarterback Champs:
Ben Roethlisberger- 25/37, 340 yards, 6 TDs- 35.7 fantasy points
Yeah that’s 12 touchdowns in two games. Don’t touch him. You might burn yourself. However, he’s not a bad sell high candidate, especially for Foles owners. #ValueCity
Tom Brady- 33/53, 333, 4 TDs, INT – 27.6 fantasy points
And it continues… the Patriots are now establishing themselves as a force in the AFC, and now are showing people why they may actually be the best team in the conference. Top 5 QB moving forward…
Peyton Manning- 34/57, 438 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs- 21.7 fantasy points
A valiant effort in the loss, but he was second best quarterback on the field in Foxborough.
Quarterback Chumps:
Philip Rivers- 12/23, 138 yards, 3 INTs- NEGATIVE 2.3 fantasy points
Just a horrific day for Rivers as the Dolphins D gobbled him up all day and further established themselves as one of the best defenses in the league.
Running Back Champs:
Jeremy Hill- 24 Rush, 154 yards, 2 TDs; 1 Rec, 9 yards– 28.3 fantasy points
You can legitimately make the argument the argument that Hill is a better play than Bernard because with Bernard out, Hill isn’t battling anyone for carries. He should be a stud as long as Gio is out…
Marshawn Lynch-21 Rush, 67 yards, 2 TDs; 5 Rec, 76 yards- 26.3 fantasy points
Beast mode didn’t go over 100 yards rushing, but was the Seahawks best offensive weapon Sunday, as they took care of the Raiders…I would feel very comfortable acquiring Lynch in any league format, as the Seahawks realize that his success directly correlates with wins.
Matt Asiata- 10 Rush, 26 yards, 3 TDs; 4 Rec, 31 yards – 25.7 fantasy points
He isn’t dominating the touches, but he’s seeing all the goal line work. You still can’t start the guy with confidence, but hey, at least there is a trend here. He has six touchdowns on the season. He had three in week four. He had three this week. This means he will have three touchdowns in week 14 against the Jets, right?
Running Back Chumps:
Chris Ivory- 8 Rush, 22 yards– 2.2 fantasy points
This is a bit disconcerting, but even moreso that CJ2k had over 100 total yards on the day. GET ME OFF THIS MERRY-GO-ROUND!
Brandon Oliver - 13 Rush, 19 yards, 1 Rec, 7 yards- 2.6 fantasy points
Heading into the bye it’s going to be interesting how they decide to divide the carries between him and Matthews, assuming he will be ready to suit up week 11. Monitor closely.
Wide Receiver Champs:
Jeremy Maclin-5 Rec, 158 yards, 2 TDs-27.8 fantasy points
The second week in a row at the top. His stock has NEVER been hotter… However, let’s see if it takes a hit with Mark Sanchez at the helm.
Mike Evans- 7 Rec, 124 yards, 2 TDs – 24.4 fantasy points
Mike Evans is getting more and more involved in the offense, and Glennon loves him in the red zone. It’s hard to see who will have more fantasy value moving forward between him and V-Jax. We advise that you avoid the situation altogether…
Allen Hurns- 7 Rec, 112 yards, 2 TDs – 23.2 fantasy points
Oh, hey Mr. Hurns? Haven’t seen you show up since week one…you can stay on waivers until you show some consistency in that high powered Jags offense (sarcastic tone)!
Wide Receiver Chumps:
Cordarrelle Patterson- 1 Rec, 9 yards- 0.9 fantasy points
Drop city, drop drop city. He will be the biggest athletic freak on waivers, but that’s where he belongs in any league under 14 teams. #Isthisreallife
Pierre Garcon- 3 Rec, 15 yards-1.5 fantasy points
He’s one of the guys making you pull your hair out all season long…
Kelvin Benjamin- 2 Rec, 18 yards-1.8 fantasy points
A super disappointing day for our boy, Kelvin, as the Panthers just couldn’t get anything done offensively…
Tight End Champs:
Rob Gronkowski- 9 Rec, 105 yards, TD- 16.5 fantasy points
18 catches, 254 yards and four touchdowns over the past two weeks. The beast is officially back. Gronk spike football HARD!!!!
Mychal Rivera- 8 Rec, 38 yards, 2 TDs- 15.8 fantasy points
Don’t let this fluke excite you.
Jimmy Graham- 7 Rec, 83 yards, TD- 14.3 fantasy points
Another day at the office for Jimmy, as he slowly gets closer to full health.
Tight End Chumps:
Clay Harbor- ZERO catches, ZERO yards- ZERO fantasy points
I’m just gonna call him “Goose” Harbor. Sounds like a beer…
Zach Ertz-1 Rec, 4 yards- 0.4 fantasy points
Zach, it really Ertz when you can’t produce bro…#ErtzDonut
Star Rookie Watch:
Brandin Cooks- 3 Rec, 38 yards - 3.8 Fantasy Points
Oh boy… don’t expect him for more than a flex play at best…
Sammy Watkins- *BYE
Kelvin Benjamin-[see chumps section]
**Note: Fantasy points denote standard, non-PPR scoring.
Follow me on Twitter: @FBNationGrizzle
Week 9 is in the books and there wasn’t as much turmoil as there usually is in a given week. Six teams - the Falcons, Bills, Bears, Lions, Packers and Titans will return refreshed after taking their week of rest. This will be another hard week that sees many owners wishing they built their lineup around having one specific week off, but don’t worry, that’s what I’m here for. Hopefully plenty of owners are still in the hunt. I wrote an article last week to help identify players who have favorable schedules, please feel free to check it out.
Teams on their bye this week are the Texans, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Chargers and Redskins. There is plenty of talent there to build a lineup so there may be some owners stuck with rolling out the skeleton crew. Ownership percentages are for ESPN and Yahoo leagues respectively.
Quarterbacks
“Hot Hands”
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (40.4%/57%): Tannehill has turned into an absolute stud since his bye week. His most recent performance totalled 288 yards on 24 completions, three touchdowns and no picks. Over the last four games, he’s thrown for less than 200 yards once and has a 8:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s also rushing more and more effectively. He has totals of 49, 48, 48, and 47 yards over his past four games respectively. He is quietly entering into the QB1 conversation and is owned in less than half of ESPN leagues.
Mark Sanchez, Eagles (0.4%/5%): Nick Foles is out at least six weeks with a broken collarbone. That puts him out of your lineup until about Week 15 or Week 16. Sanchez threw for 202 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Foles Sunday. Despite his shortcomings as the Jets’ starter for years, he could be a decent quarterback replacing Foles for the rest of the season. The Chip Kelly system is the main reason for that speculation and defenses will always have to stay honest against LeSean McCoy. Sanchez could be a rollercoaster but I think he’ll have more good games than bad.
Mike Glennon, Buccaneers (3.6%/7%): There has been speculation that he may be benched in favor of a healthy Josh McCown. But at this point, for the one-win Bucs, they should stick with the young gun. With the playoffs out of reach, why turn to a 35 year-old quarterback instead of giving 24 year-old Glennon as much experience as possible in hopes of developing him? He sees a relatively easy road the next few games in the Falcons and Redskins who should buoy his numbers and keep him in the QB2 conversation for anybody in 2-QB leagues.
Alex Smith, Chiefs (35.9%/46%): Although he gets the Bills defense who have 18 interceptions this week, he is known as a game manager and that is just what he is. He’s only thrown four interceptions all year, albeit three came in Week 1 so we can’t say he hasn’t thrown multiple picks in a game. I don’t think he throws more than one this week if he throws any and he’ll be a solid option for those with quarterbacks on bye.
“Dynasty”
Zach Mettenberger, Titans (1.2%/2%): He threw for almost 300 yards, two touchdowns and one pick in his debut start two weeks ago. The Titans didn’t play this weekend as its their bye week and that can only mean good things for the chemistry of this offense. If he’s given the keys to the team the rest of the season, he could put in some good games but not without some growing pains. Right now, he’s a rookie to watch but not depended on with a tough schedule upcoming.
Bye Week Fliers: Brian Hoyer, Browns. Kyle Orton, Bills.
Running Backs
“Hot Hands”
Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Even with so much up in the air regarding his suspension, Peterson did accept a deal on his court case and pleaded no contest (which is slightly different than just "guilty" or "not guilty").That being said, the NFL will have to make a decision to reinstate him after serving the 8 game suspension. He may be eligible to play as early as Week 11 (Vikings on a bye in Week 10). We say "MAY be able to play" because the NFL has yet to determine if they are going to continue his suspension. It's worth taking a chance on and picking him up this week.
Tre Mason, Rams (49%/37%): Who to own in the Rams backfield - Mason or Cunningham? The answer is definitely not Zac Stacy anymore. Mason is the first running back to own after getting another start and racking up 19 carries, especially if you are not in a PPR league. Cunningham will continue to take snaps away from Mason because Mason doesn’t play a role in the passing game. It is rare to find a player who will have workhorse-like carries this late in the year so he should be owned just based on the opportunity.
Benny Cunningham, Rams (8.3%/17%): Cunningham is still the Rams’ primary receiving back as he caught three balls on three targets for 38 yards. Those 38 yards were good enough for him to be the leading receiver for the Rams this week as well. That is not good, but it shows that Cunningham is a part in the game plan. Since Cunningham is clearly behind Mason in carries, you would have to be in a PPR league for Cunningham to be relevant. He’s worth being stashed for matchups where his receiving abilities will be highlighted.
Matt Asiata, Vikings (26.8%/31%): He’s on a bye this week but he has to be mentioned based on his 3-touchdown performance on Sunday afternoon. He’s still the goal-line back for the Vikings and if you’re desperate he’s worth possible flex starts against the porous Bears and Packers in the couple weeks after his bye week. Those matchups give Asiata a good chance of scoring.
Theo Riddick, Lions (2.1%/5%): Regardless of Reggie Bush’s injury status, the Lions have said they will keep Riddick involved. That is not good news for Bush owners so don’t forget about Riddick after his bye in Week 9. He’s someone to wait and see how many touches he gets and what he does with them. If for some reason Bush can’t play or is limited against the Dolphins, Riddick gets a bump to a low-level flex play.
“Dynasty”
Terrance West, Browns (31%/23%): He out-touched Ben Tate, 16-14 on Sunday and even though Tate was trusted to run out the clock, West was the better running back. This backfield has changed hands frequently this season so it’s a situation to monitor. I picked West as the inevitable starter coming into the season because he had the most upside. Tate isn’t banged up at the moment so he will continue to at least split carries with West limiting both players fantasy value but I still think West is the one to own in the future if you can stash him.
Jonas Gray, Patriots (17.6%/18%): He wasn’t exactly the Patriots runner between the tackles against the Broncos Sunday that everyone thought coming off a 17 carry game two weeks ago. Still, he is the Patriots “big back” and his stats will depend on the game plan. Rookie James White has been a healthy scratch and both Brandon Bolden’s and Shane Vereen’s contracts are up at the end of the year so the rest of the way could be a bit of an audition for Gray. He’s worth stashing in dynasty or keeper leagues because of his potential for next year and could even have some good games peppered over the rest of the year.
Bye Week Fliers: Toby Gerhart, Jaguars. Charles Sims, Buccaneers. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers.
Wide Receivers
“Hot Hands”
Mike Evans, Buccaneers (31.8%/61%): He is most likely already owned in your Yahoo league, but if you’re in ESPN leagues, he may not be. He doesn’t have a very consistent or accurate quarterback which will hold him back but he has the physical ability to compensate more than some other receivers. He has easy matchups against the Falcons and Redskins to help push you towards the playoffs. He should also be a great pick for keeper or dynasty leagues to see if the Bucs can right the ship at quarterback.
Martavis Bryant, Steelers (22.1%/43%): He now has five touchdowns since his debut just three weeks ago. He is for real and is clearly an important player in balancing out defenses who choose to shift coverage to Antonio Brown. He is a WR3/flex option as Ben Roethlisberger isn’t going to throw six touchdowns per game consistently. He is usually looked to after Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell to score so he holds the upper hand over Markus Wheaton.
Harry Douglas, Falcons (1.9%/3%): This week, the Falcons have a matchup against the defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season - the Bucs. The Falcons had a much needed bye week last week and should come out firing on all cylinders against a team they decimated in Week 3. Douglas had caught 2-of-2 for 14 yards and a touchdown before he left that game with an injury. He has a high chance of scoring again against the Bucs defense so I see him as a WR3/flex this week.
Kenny Britt, Rams (8.6%/9%): While Benny Cunningham was the Rams leading “receiver”, Britt was not far behind. He caught the lone touchdown pass of the day from Austin Davis but totaled only 32 yards on two catches. It was a forgetful performance buoyed by the touchdown but besides Jared Cook, Britt seems to be the next go-to man for Davis. He is not going to be very relevant unless he gets into the endzone but is mentioned because the Rams don’t have much to throw to after Brian Quick was lost for the season. He’s only worth consideration in deeper leagues or if you are desperately thin at receiver.
“Dynasty”
Jarvis Landry, Dolphins (7.8%/8%): He continues to catch almost everything that is thrown his way and is now clearly ahead of Brian Hartline in the pecking order. Ryan Tannehill is turning into a star before our eyes and Landry is going for the ride. He’ll continue to be the second passing option behind Mike Wallace. With matchups that will require Tannehill to throw against because of their run defenses, Landry should continue to see five to seven targets per game as he grows with Tannehill. He’s worth stashing now while he is budding.
Bye Week Fliers: Jerricho Cotchery, Panthers. Cecil Shorts III, Jaguars. Markus Wheaton, Steelers. Jordan Matthews, Eagles
Tight Ends
“Hot Hands”
Mychal Rivera, Raiders (2.2%/2%): For the second week in a row, Rivera put up big numbers. He followed his seven catch, 83 yard performance with an eight catch, 38 yard and a touchdown encore. Next week, the Raiders play the Broncos and while that doesn’t bode well for Derek Carr, his receivers don’t get negative points for the interceptions he’ll throw. The Raiders will be playing from behind in this one so Rivera could at least get some garbage time points.
Charles Clay, Dolphins (20.2%/44%): This weekend, we had another Charles Clay sighting. He’s been underwhelming and a dud most of the year. He can’t be dubbed consistent yet but he has shown flashes of his 2013 self over the past few games. He has caught 13 balls for 158 yards and two touchdowns in four games since the Dolphins bye in Week 5. If he can continue his upward swing, he could finish the year strong and be a great late year addition for many fantasy owners.
Owen Daniels, Ravens (28.3%/30%): After a minor knee surgery a few weeks ago, Daniels appears to have not missed a beat. He caught six balls for 53 yards while fellow tight end, Crockett Gillmore was the one who scored a touchdown. Daniels was targeted a team-high nine times Sunday night as he was clearly part of the plan. He’s a low-end TE1 in PPR leagues and much of his value is dependent on touchdowns. He’s not a bad fill-in though for anyone who has a tight end on bye this week.
Coby Fleener, Colts (18.7%/30%): He’s heading into his bye week but he put on quite the performance Monday night. He finished with four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. Fellow tight end Dwayne Allen also caught four balls and a touchdown so this is clearly a job split in two. Although Fleener doesn’t score all that often compared to Allen, he still has the same potential upside. It just depends on who is featured that game. There are worse options if you are streaming tight ends after this week.
“Dynasty”
Tim Wright, Patriots (11%/23%): He put up a complete donut on Sunday against the Broncos. He wasn’t even targeted in the game but that is what comes with being in the Patriots offense. You never know who is going to be involved the most behind Gronk each week but Tim Wright certainly has the tools. He hasn’t had any major yards in any game, topping out at 85 in Week 5, but he’s caught three touchdowns which has helped his fantasy numbers. Hopefully with the Patriots on a bye this week, they can figure out a way to get Wright more involved consistently. Until then, he’s a boom/bust tight end.
Bye Week Fliers: Heath Miller, Steelers. Scott Chandler, Bills. Clay Harbor, Jaguars.
Defenses/ST
Detroit D/ST: Since they were on a bye last week, someone may have dropped them. Make sure to pick them up as they are a top-5 defense.
Steelers D/ST: They are playing the turnover happy Jets who are still unsure of their starting quarterback this week so there’s much to like in this matchup.
Packers D/ST: The Bears are imploding but this one may come back to bite me as they return from their bye.
Ravens D/ST: This unit has created a turnover in every game but two this year. They see the Titans this week who give up the 23rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Kickers
Mason Crosby, Packers: 11/12 FG, 25/25 XP
Graham Gano, Panthers: 17/19 FG, 16/16 XP
Chandler Catanzaro, Cardinals: 16/16 FG, 18/18 XP
Shaun Suisham, Steelers: 14/15 FG, 25/25 XP
Shayne Graham, Saints: 13/14 FG, 24/25 XP
Quarterback Champs:
Ben Roethlisberger- 25/37, 340 yards, 6 TDs- 35.7 fantasy points
Yeah that’s 12 touchdowns in two games. Don’t touch him. You might burn yourself. However, he’s not a bad sell high candidate, especially for Foles owners. #ValueCity
Tom Brady- 33/53, 333, 4 TDs, INT – 27.6 fantasy points
And it continues… the Patriots are now establishing themselves as a force in the AFC, and now are showing people why they may actually be the best team in the conference. Top 5 QB moving forward…
Peyton Manning- 34/57, 438 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs- 21.7 fantasy points
A valiant effort in the loss, but he was second best quarterback on the field in Foxborough.
Quarterback Chumps:
Philip Rivers- 12/23, 138 yards, 3 INTs- NEGATIVE 2.3 fantasy points
Just a horrific day for Rivers as the Dolphins D gobbled him up all day and further established themselves as one of the best defenses in the league.
Running Back Champs:
Jeremy Hill- 24 Rush, 154 yards, 2 TDs; 1 Rec, 9 yards– 28.3 fantasy points
You can legitimately make the argument the argument that Hill is a better play than Bernard because with Bernard out, Hill isn’t battling anyone for carries. He should be a stud as long as Gio is out…
Marshawn Lynch-21 Rush, 67 yards, 2 TDs; 5 Rec, 76 yards- 26.3 fantasy points
Beast mode didn’t go over 100 yards rushing, but was the Seahawks best offensive weapon Sunday, as they took care of the Raiders…I would feel very comfortable acquiring Lynch in any league format, as the Seahawks realize that his success directly correlates with wins.
Matt Asiata- 10 Rush, 26 yards, 3 TDs; 4 Rec, 31 yards – 25.7 fantasy points
He isn’t dominating the touches, but he’s seeing all the goal line work. You still can’t start the guy with confidence, but hey, at least there is a trend here. He has six touchdowns on the season. He had three in week four. He had three this week. This means he will have three touchdowns in week 14 against the Jets, right?
Running Back Chumps:
Chris Ivory- 8 Rush, 22 yards– 2.2 fantasy points
This is a bit disconcerting, but even moreso that CJ2k had over 100 total yards on the day. GET ME OFF THIS MERRY-GO-ROUND!
Brandon Oliver - 13 Rush, 19 yards, 1 Rec, 7 yards- 2.6 fantasy points
Heading into the bye it’s going to be interesting how they decide to divide the carries between him and Matthews, assuming he will be ready to suit up week 11. Monitor closely.
Wide Receiver Champs:
Jeremy Maclin-5 Rec, 158 yards, 2 TDs-27.8 fantasy points
The second week in a row at the top. His stock has NEVER been hotter… However, let’s see if it takes a hit with Mark Sanchez at the helm.
Mike Evans- 7 Rec, 124 yards, 2 TDs – 24.4 fantasy points
Mike Evans is getting more and more involved in the offense, and Glennon loves him in the red zone. It’s hard to see who will have more fantasy value moving forward between him and V-Jax. We advise that you avoid the situation altogether…
Allen Hurns- 7 Rec, 112 yards, 2 TDs – 23.2 fantasy points
Oh, hey Mr. Hurns? Haven’t seen you show up since week one…you can stay on waivers until you show some consistency in that high powered Jags offense (sarcastic tone)!
Wide Receiver Chumps:
Cordarrelle Patterson- 1 Rec, 9 yards- 0.9 fantasy points
Drop city, drop drop city. He will be the biggest athletic freak on waivers, but that’s where he belongs in any league under 14 teams. #Isthisreallife
Pierre Garcon- 3 Rec, 15 yards-1.5 fantasy points
He’s one of the guys making you pull your hair out all season long…
Kelvin Benjamin- 2 Rec, 18 yards-1.8 fantasy points
A super disappointing day for our boy, Kelvin, as the Panthers just couldn’t get anything done offensively…
Tight End Champs:
Rob Gronkowski- 9 Rec, 105 yards, TD- 16.5 fantasy points
18 catches, 254 yards and four touchdowns over the past two weeks. The beast is officially back. Gronk spike football HARD!!!!
Mychal Rivera- 8 Rec, 38 yards, 2 TDs- 15.8 fantasy points
Don’t let this fluke excite you.
Jimmy Graham- 7 Rec, 83 yards, TD- 14.3 fantasy points
Another day at the office for Jimmy, as he slowly gets closer to full health.
Tight End Chumps:
Clay Harbor- ZERO catches, ZERO yards- ZERO fantasy points
I’m just gonna call him “Goose” Harbor. Sounds like a beer…
Zach Ertz-1 Rec, 4 yards- 0.4 fantasy points
Zach, it really Ertz when you can’t produce bro…#ErtzDonut
Star Rookie Watch:
Brandin Cooks- 3 Rec, 38 yards - 3.8 Fantasy Points
Oh boy… don’t expect him for more than a flex play at best…
Sammy Watkins- *BYE
Kelvin Benjamin-[see chumps section]
**Note: Fantasy points denote standard, non-PPR scoring.
Follow me on Twitter: @FBNationGrizzle
Week 9 is in the books and there wasn’t as much turmoil as there usually is in a given week. Six teams - the Falcons, Bills, Bears, Lions, Packers and Titans will return refreshed after taking their week of rest. This will be another hard week that sees many owners wishing they built their lineup around having one specific week off, but don’t worry, that’s what I’m here for. Hopefully plenty of owners are still in the hunt. I wrote an article last week to help identify players who have favorable schedules, please feel free to check it out.
Teams on their bye this week are the Texans, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Chargers and Redskins. There is plenty of talent there to build a lineup so there may be some owners stuck with rolling out the skeleton crew. Ownership percentages are for ESPN and Yahoo leagues respectively.
Quarterbacks
“Hot Hands”
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (40.4%/57%): Tannehill has turned into an absolute stud since his bye week. His most recent performance totalled 288 yards on 24 completions, three touchdowns and no picks. Over the last four games, he’s thrown for less than 200 yards once and has a 8:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s also rushing more and more effectively. He has totals of 49, 48, 48, and 47 yards over his past four games respectively. He is quietly entering into the QB1 conversation and is owned in less than half of ESPN leagues.
Mark Sanchez, Eagles (0.4%/5%): Nick Foles is out at least six weeks with a broken collarbone. That puts him out of your lineup until about Week 15 or Week 16. Sanchez threw for 202 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Foles Sunday. Despite his shortcomings as the Jets’ starter for years, he could be a decent quarterback replacing Foles for the rest of the season. The Chip Kelly system is the main reason for that speculation and defenses will always have to stay honest against LeSean McCoy. Sanchez could be a rollercoaster but I think he’ll have more good games than bad.
Mike Glennon, Buccaneers (3.6%/7%): There has been speculation that he may be benched in favor of a healthy Josh McCown. But at this point, for the one-win Bucs, they should stick with the young gun. With the playoffs out of reach, why turn to a 35 year-old quarterback instead of giving 24 year-old Glennon as much experience as possible in hopes of developing him? He sees a relatively easy road the next few games in the Falcons and Redskins who should buoy his numbers and keep him in the QB2 conversation for anybody in 2-QB leagues.
Alex Smith, Chiefs (35.9%/46%): Although he gets the Bills defense who have 18 interceptions this week, he is known as a game manager and that is just what he is. He’s only thrown four interceptions all year, albeit three came in Week 1 so we can’t say he hasn’t thrown multiple picks in a game. I don’t think he throws more than one this week if he throws any and he’ll be a solid option for those with quarterbacks on bye.
“Dynasty”
Zach Mettenberger, Titans (1.2%/2%): He threw for almost 300 yards, two touchdowns and one pick in his debut start two weeks ago. The Titans didn’t play this weekend as its their bye week and that can only mean good things for the chemistry of this offense. If he’s given the keys to the team the rest of the season, he could put in some good games but not without some growing pains. Right now, he’s a rookie to watch but not depended on with a tough schedule upcoming.
Bye Week Fliers: Brian Hoyer, Browns. Kyle Orton, Bills.
Running Backs
“Hot Hands”
Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Even with so much up in the air regarding his suspension, Peterson did accept a deal on his court case and pleaded no contest (which is slightly different than just "guilty" or "not guilty").That being said, the NFL will have to make a decision to reinstate him after serving the 8 game suspension. He may be eligible to play as early as Week 11 (Vikings on a bye in Week 10). We say "MAY be able to play" because the NFL has yet to determine if they are going to continue his suspension. It's worth taking a chance on and picking him up this week.
Tre Mason, Rams (49%/37%): Who to own in the Rams backfield - Mason or Cunningham? The answer is definitely not Zac Stacy anymore. Mason is the first running back to own after getting another start and racking up 19 carries, especially if you are not in a PPR league. Cunningham will continue to take snaps away from Mason because Mason doesn’t play a role in the passing game. It is rare to find a player who will have workhorse-like carries this late in the year so he should be owned just based on the opportunity.
Benny Cunningham, Rams (8.3%/17%): Cunningham is still the Rams’ primary receiving back as he caught three balls on three targets for 38 yards. Those 38 yards were good enough for him to be the leading receiver for the Rams this week as well. That is not good, but it shows that Cunningham is a part in the game plan. Since Cunningham is clearly behind Mason in carries, you would have to be in a PPR league for Cunningham to be relevant. He’s worth being stashed for matchups where his receiving abilities will be highlighted.
Matt Asiata, Vikings (26.8%/31%): He’s on a bye this week but he has to be mentioned based on his 3-touchdown performance on Sunday afternoon. He’s still the goal-line back for the Vikings and if you’re desperate he’s worth possible flex starts against the porous Bears and Packers in the couple weeks after his bye week. Those matchups give Asiata a good chance of scoring.
Theo Riddick, Lions (2.1%/5%): Regardless of Reggie Bush’s injury status, the Lions have said they will keep Riddick involved. That is not good news for Bush owners so don’t forget about Riddick after his bye in Week 9. He’s someone to wait and see how many touches he gets and what he does with them. If for some reason Bush can’t play or is limited against the Dolphins, Riddick gets a bump to a low-level flex play.
“Dynasty”
Terrance West, Browns (31%/23%): He out-touched Ben Tate, 16-14 on Sunday and even though Tate was trusted to run out the clock, West was the better running back. This backfield has changed hands frequently this season so it’s a situation to monitor. I picked West as the inevitable starter coming into the season because he had the most upside. Tate isn’t banged up at the moment so he will continue to at least split carries with West limiting both players fantasy value but I still think West is the one to own in the future if you can stash him.
Jonas Gray, Patriots (17.6%/18%): He wasn’t exactly the Patriots runner between the tackles against the Broncos Sunday that everyone thought coming off a 17 carry game two weeks ago. Still, he is the Patriots “big back” and his stats will depend on the game plan. Rookie James White has been a healthy scratch and both Brandon Bolden’s and Shane Vereen’s contracts are up at the end of the year so the rest of the way could be a bit of an audition for Gray. He’s worth stashing in dynasty or keeper leagues because of his potential for next year and could even have some good games peppered over the rest of the year.
Bye Week Fliers: Toby Gerhart, Jaguars. Charles Sims, Buccaneers. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers.
Wide Receivers
“Hot Hands”
Mike Evans, Buccaneers (31.8%/61%): He is most likely already owned in your Yahoo league, but if you’re in ESPN leagues, he may not be. He doesn’t have a very consistent or accurate quarterback which will hold him back but he has the physical ability to compensate more than some other receivers. He has easy matchups against the Falcons and Redskins to help push you towards the playoffs. He should also be a great pick for keeper or dynasty leagues to see if the Bucs can right the ship at quarterback.
Martavis Bryant, Steelers (22.1%/43%): He now has five touchdowns since his debut just three weeks ago. He is for real and is clearly an important player in balancing out defenses who choose to shift coverage to Antonio Brown. He is a WR3/flex option as Ben Roethlisberger isn’t going to throw six touchdowns per game consistently. He is usually looked to after Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell to score so he holds the upper hand over Markus Wheaton.
Harry Douglas, Falcons (1.9%/3%): This week, the Falcons have a matchup against the defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season - the Bucs. The Falcons had a much needed bye week last week and should come out firing on all cylinders against a team they decimated in Week 3. Douglas had caught 2-of-2 for 14 yards and a touchdown before he left that game with an injury. He has a high chance of scoring again against the Bucs defense so I see him as a WR3/flex this week.
Kenny Britt, Rams (8.6%/9%): While Benny Cunningham was the Rams leading “receiver”, Britt was not far behind. He caught the lone touchdown pass of the day from Austin Davis but totaled only 32 yards on two catches. It was a forgetful performance buoyed by the touchdown but besides Jared Cook, Britt seems to be the next go-to man for Davis. He is not going to be very relevant unless he gets into the endzone but is mentioned because the Rams don’t have much to throw to after Brian Quick was lost for the season. He’s only worth consideration in deeper leagues or if you are desperately thin at receiver.
“Dynasty”
Jarvis Landry, Dolphins (7.8%/8%): He continues to catch almost everything that is thrown his way and is now clearly ahead of Brian Hartline in the pecking order. Ryan Tannehill is turning into a star before our eyes and Landry is going for the ride. He’ll continue to be the second passing option behind Mike Wallace. With matchups that will require Tannehill to throw against because of their run defenses, Landry should continue to see five to seven targets per game as he grows with Tannehill. He’s worth stashing now while he is budding.
Bye Week Fliers: Jerricho Cotchery, Panthers. Cecil Shorts III, Jaguars. Markus Wheaton, Steelers. Jordan Matthews, Eagles
Tight Ends
“Hot Hands”
Mychal Rivera, Raiders (2.2%/2%): For the second week in a row, Rivera put up big numbers. He followed his seven catch, 83 yard performance with an eight catch, 38 yard and a touchdown encore. Next week, the Raiders play the Broncos and while that doesn’t bode well for Derek Carr, his receivers don’t get negative points for the interceptions he’ll throw. The Raiders will be playing from behind in this one so Rivera could at least get some garbage time points.
Charles Clay, Dolphins (20.2%/44%): This weekend, we had another Charles Clay sighting. He’s been underwhelming and a dud most of the year. He can’t be dubbed consistent yet but he has shown flashes of his 2013 self over the past few games. He has caught 13 balls for 158 yards and two touchdowns in four games since the Dolphins bye in Week 5. If he can continue his upward swing, he could finish the year strong and be a great late year addition for many fantasy owners.
Owen Daniels, Ravens (28.3%/30%): After a minor knee surgery a few weeks ago, Daniels appears to have not missed a beat. He caught six balls for 53 yards while fellow tight end, Crockett Gillmore was the one who scored a touchdown. Daniels was targeted a team-high nine times Sunday night as he was clearly part of the plan. He’s a low-end TE1 in PPR leagues and much of his value is dependent on touchdowns. He’s not a bad fill-in though for anyone who has a tight end on bye this week.
Coby Fleener, Colts (18.7%/30%): He’s heading into his bye week but he put on quite the performance Monday night. He finished with four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. Fellow tight end Dwayne Allen also caught four balls and a touchdown so this is clearly a job split in two. Although Fleener doesn’t score all that often compared to Allen, he still has the same potential upside. It just depends on who is featured that game. There are worse options if you are streaming tight ends after this week.
“Dynasty”
Tim Wright, Patriots (11%/23%): He put up a complete donut on Sunday against the Broncos. He wasn’t even targeted in the game but that is what comes with being in the Patriots offense. You never know who is going to be involved the most behind Gronk each week but Tim Wright certainly has the tools. He hasn’t had any major yards in any game, topping out at 85 in Week 5, but he’s caught three touchdowns which has helped his fantasy numbers. Hopefully with the Patriots on a bye this week, they can figure out a way to get Wright more involved consistently. Until then, he’s a boom/bust tight end.
Bye Week Fliers: Heath Miller, Steelers. Scott Chandler, Bills. Clay Harbor, Jaguars.
Defenses/ST
Detroit D/ST: Since they were on a bye last week, someone may have dropped them. Make sure to pick them up as they are a top-5 defense.
Steelers D/ST: They are playing the turnover happy Jets who are still unsure of their starting quarterback this week so there’s much to like in this matchup.
Packers D/ST: The Bears are imploding but this one may come back to bite me as they return from their bye.
Ravens D/ST: This unit has created a turnover in every game but two this year. They see the Titans this week who give up the 23rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Kickers
Mason Crosby, Packers: 11/12 FG, 25/25 XP
Graham Gano, Panthers: 17/19 FG, 16/16 XP
Chandler Catanzaro, Cardinals: 16/16 FG, 18/18 XP
Shaun Suisham, Steelers: 14/15 FG, 25/25 XP
Shayne Graham, Saints: 13/14 FG, 24/25 XP
