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Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Daily Fantasy Golf: The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Daily Fantasy Golf:  Valspar Championship

If you were one of the ones watching College basketball and selection Sunday, then you missed out on the best finish in a golf tournament this year, and for as far back as I can recall. Jordan Speith overcame a three shot deficit in the last six holes to set the stage for a three way playoff between himself, Sean O’Hare, and Patrick Reed. 

Let me just say, I have been golfing for over 20 years now and that was some of the best golf around the greens I have ever seen.  The up and downs these guys were making were unreal.  The shot Patrick Reed made from a plugged bunker lay up against to lip to 10 feet and to make the put to continue the playoff was fantastic. 

With Tiger (more on him later) not in the golf world anymore this is exactly what the tour needs to keep interest.  The playoff consisted of maybe the hottest golfer on tour this year (Patrick Reed), the best young golfer on tour (Jordan Speith), and my pick for comeback player of the year (Sean O’Hare).  Speith ended up winning the tournament on the third playoff hole when he snaked a 28 foot hard breaking right to left put to become only the third person to win twice on tour before the age of 22 in the last 75 years. 

Needless to say I am born and raised a Wisconsin Badger fan and didn’t mind one bit that I missed their overtime win in the Big Ten Tournament to see this play out, because it was AWESOME!!  These guys really are good!!

Ok.  On to business.  My scorecard for the weekend. 

Again I went with 12 golfers, four each from three tiers of top, mid, and low priced guys.  Of the 12 golfers I picked nine of them made the cut, including all four from my playing the weekend section and three of four from my top tier guys.  Justin Rose, ugh. 

Most time I would consider this successful, however my guys that made the cut were not able to complete the weekend with high finishes as only four of the nine that played the weekend made it into the top 25. 

Only one golfer made the top 10, Kevin Na, which I did say was the best value golfer of the tournament, so I will give myself a little pat on the back for that.

If you picked six of the nine golfers I picked that made the cut you probably made a little bit of money.  However, if you were like me and had five of the six then you were dancing with me around the cash line.  Hope you were successful.


Daily Fantasy Golf:  The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bay Hill aka Tiger Hill as he has overwhelmed this golf tournament in years past in dominating fashion.  Since 2000 he has won this tournament eight times, and has won four of his last five times he has teed it up here.  So pick him first right?  Absolutely, if he were in the field, but he will be missing this tournament for the second straight year.  Bummer. 

Just because Tiger won’t be playing doesn’t mean we can't use him to help us win.  Every year Tiger has won the tournament he ranked first in strokes gained on the par 5s.  So go long or go home right?

Well that wasn’t the case last year as Matt Every holds the crown and he never approaches the top 100 in driving distance.  What does this mean?  Nothing.  Absolutely, nothing.  Chalk it up as a fluke, and hope others don’t.  I will all but guarantee the winner this year will be one of the tops in driving distance.

With that being said, here are my keys stats to be successful this weekend.

  1. Driving Distance:  Kill the par 5s kill the tournament.  Tiger golf is proven successful.
  2. Greens in Regulation:  How did Matt Every manage to overcome his length off the tee?  Greens in regulation (73%) and a great putter (1.6 SGP). 
  3. Par 3 scoring from 200 225 yards:  Doubtful that anyone will win this tournament by scoring on the par 3s from this distance.  However, you sure can lose a tournament making big numbers on these lengthy par 3s.  Eliminate players that are poor from this distance when making decisions. 

Know thy scoring system: 
We all know this from our years at FFChamps that this is the most important thing for success in fantasy sports.  However, this just doesn’t include the scoring system for DraftKings. 

This weekend is an invitational event, meaning it will not have as many players as a standard PGA event.  The field will be limited to 120 players this weekend, which is 25 to 35 less players than a usual event.   However, the same amount of people make the cut.  Top 70 and ties. 

Why does this matter?  A higher percentage make the cut and play the weekend, meaning you can take low priced golfers in order to stack a team of high end players with a lot less risk (15 – 20% less) of them not making the cut.  If you didn’t know this about the tournament before reading this, then it’s most likely that the other players in your tournament did not either, so take advantage of it.

Draft Kings first glance and Random Thoughts:

  1. Adam Scott:  He missed the cut for the first time in nearly 3 years.  The putter switch has to be the cause.  Can we expect up and downs all year because of this?
  2. Rory McIlroy:  So expensive, goodness, he is not Tiger Woods yet.  Would you rather have McIlroy and a $9700 guy (K.Bradley, Matsuyama, Koepka) or Bubba and Henrik for the same combined price.  FYI, its Rory’s first look at Bay Hill.
  3. J.B. Holmes:  First guy I thought of for value in this tournament, but now that he is $8,900 he is no longer in that category.  Is he trustworthy enough for that price tag??
  4. Shane Lowery:  Man, if DraftKings keeps undervaluing this guy I hope I am the only one that keeps noticing.
  5. Justin Thomas:  Thought this rookie was going to slump a lot longer than he did. Welcome back. 
  6. Angel Cabrera:  Once a year this guy makes a run in a tournament.  Why do I feel like this is the one?
  7. Matt Every:  Returning champ for only $5,200?  No way he repeats, but at this price making the cut and playing the weekend is fantastic.
  8. Davis Love III:  The old man still has some snap in his driver, ranking 36th on tour.  Length and experience for $4100.  He will find a lineup of mine.

Well, that does it for now.  Check back Wednesday afternoon for my in-depth picks.

Golfer:  “Do you think my game is improving?”

Caddie:  “Yes sir, you miss the ball much closer now. “

Happy Drafting,



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