Daily Fantasy Week 7: Shootouts And Defensive Struggles
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Hi Daily Fantasy Veterans and Rookies,
Week 6 delivered another extraordinary week and Draft Kings crowned another $1,000,000 winner. Joe Flacco, yes that Joe Flacco threw five TDs in the first half while racking up 35.2 fantasy points. His team mate, Steve Smith Sr. pulled in one of the touchdowns, while posting 25 fantasy points for the day. Jquave76 had both of these players in his lineup and they helped bring him home the $1,000,000 first prize. Congratulation Jquave!!!!!!! Enjoy those big bucks!
Hopefully you had both these studs in your lineups too, but since this is Daily Fantasy, our teams that took us into the money are no more and we once again, will be building our team from the ground up.
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To help you set the optimal team (and hopefully take home the MILLION BUCKS) each week we look for those games that the odds makers in Vegas see as high scoring affairs, which means a lot of fantasy points should be racked up, and which should be low scoring games where the points will be hard to come by.
Last week, the game with the highest Over/Under was Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons, at 53 points. While Atlanta seemingly forgot to show up, our Bears players showed up big time racking up the points for us: Jay Cutler came in at 25.3; Matt Forte despite his high price tag totally delivered with 37.7 points; and both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery performed well with 20.3 and 21.6 points, respectively.
To check out the first article of this series for a complete description of the strategy: CLICK HERE
Our bye week teams this week are the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While the Buccaneers are no great loss, we will miss the high scoring Eagles, especially after LeSean McCoy’s big week and the continuing growth of Nick Foles.
Here we go: Looking at Week Seven, there is only one game that reaches the 50 point over/under threshold. There are several games at 49 and I will address them briefly after looking in depth at our “star” game.
Over/Under with Positive Impact on Value: TARGET PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK
For our negative games we normally look for games under 42 points. This week there is none that low, so we stretched our parameters slightly, to games less than 44 points.
Over/Under with Negative Impact on Value: AVOID PLAYERS ON THESE TEAMS THIS WEEK
Basic strategy with the above information is to look for studs and lower priced value in the “POSITIVE” games and look to avoid most but not all of the players in the “NEGATIVE” games.
Now with our tools (FFC Strength of Schedule, FF Champs Defense Stats Allowed , The FFCPI and the FFC Daily Fantasy Rank Tool) primed and ready to go, we can now review our target games and make some decisions and look for value:
San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos:
The Broncos have been getting it done all season and there is no reason to suspect they will not continue to do so. The first player who really stands out is Julius Thomas at $6,900 and an average 21.7 FFPG. While he is the highest priced TE, stick him in the Flex and use him at a WR surrogate. The Niners have allowed 17 and 21 fantasy points to TEs versus the Chiefs and the Rams in their last two games and with their continuing problems at LB, most recently the injury to Patrick Willis on Monday night, Thomas and Manning should have a field day.
Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas are pricey, but there is no denying their point production, a lineup with these two always has the chance to blow up. After a down week, Emanuel Sanders gets a slight price reduction and looks attractive at $5,900.
For the Niners, it is a good thing that they played on Monday Night, as we can benefit from the fact that pricing is set prior to the Monday Night game so Colin Kaepernick comes in at only $6,500, despite the 32 point performance his posted on Monday versus the Rams. With only one sub-15 point performance this season (week 5 versus the Chiefs – 14 points), Kaepernick is great value at $6,500, even against a solid Broncos defense.
Aside from Kaepernick, it is difficult to decide who else to play: Is Gore good at $4,800 or will he have a limited number of snaps?; Does Carlos Hyde get a game to show what his can do?; and with Brandon Lloyd ($3,000) and Stevie Johnson ($3,300) sniping targets, it’s hard to know how Anquan Boldin ($4,500) and Michael Crabtree ($4,900) will do. With that said, with their relatively inexpensive pricing, all of the Niners WRs can fit into lineups in the WR3 and/or Flex slot and potentially provide big numbers for low price.
Before moving onto the negative games, there are several games with an over/under around 49 points. Those games include: Bengals @ Colts; Dolphins @ Bears; and Falcons @ Ravens. All of these games have major studs who should be considered for your lineups, including: Gio Bernard, Andrew Luck, TY Hilton, Mohamed Sanu, Lemar Miller (with Moreno out), Cutler, Forte, Marshall, Jeffrey, Julio Jones, Torrey Smith and Steve Smith, Sr., and, I can’t believe I am saying this, Joe Flacco. No I don’t think he will throw 5 TDs again, but against the Falcons two or three TDs are not out of the question.
A couple of QB/WR stacks are very attractive here, specifically; Luck/Hilton; Cutler/Marshall/Jeffrey, you may even want to through Forte in here and go with a “Bears” lineup; a bit riskier would be a Flacco/one of the Smiths.
Now, on to the games to avoid:
NEGATIVE GAMES: (Remember, a negative game does not mean that all players will stink and not put up fantasy numbers, it just means that there is generally better value to be had elsewhere)
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills:
The Bills are number one against the run, allowing less than 70 yards per game, so sit your Viking Running Backs, but can be had in the passing game (ranked 26th), so Jarius Wright could be interesting for a flex play at $3,400.
The Vikings’ defense is the opposite, #6 versus the pass and 20th versus the run. While the Vikings can be run on, the Bills run a true backfield by committee, so it’s hard to commit to either Fred Jackson at a somewhat pricey $5,500 or CJ Spiller who despite his low $3,700 price tag, has just not got it done this year (9.7 FFPG average). While the Vikings are good versus the pass, at $4,800, Sammy Watkins might be a play at WR3.
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams:
The Vegas boys think this game will be low scoring, and it very well could be with the Seahawks on the road and the Rams being, well, the Rams, however I would not be afraid to use a few of the players in this game, purely based on pricing.
Russell Wilson put up 37 fantasy points in his last road game, I know it was against the Redskins, but the points were there. At $6,800, strangely enough, he could be a sneaky play. At $7,100, Marshawn Lynch could be too cheap to pass up, but just remember, last year, the Rams held him to 23 yards.
As for the Rams, Jared Cook at $3,600 is a possible low priced TE versus the 24th ranked Seahawks. Otherwise, Brian Quick is a bit too high priced at $6,000 and the Rams’ backfield has turned into a 2 or even 3 headed monster, making Zac Stacy, even at $4,300 too expensive.
Well, that is it for this week, remember to do your research, look for more daily fantasy articles in the upcoming days, and good luck in big, huge, life changing Millionaire Maker Daily Fantasy Contest. Remember with this offer, all you need do is make a $25 deposit that you can use any way you like and you get a FREE $27 entry and with that entry by around 1130pm on Monday, you could be a MILLIONAIRE!!!
If you have any questions, comments or just want to talk fantasy, hit me up on Twitter or Facebook, you can use the links below to get in touch.
Good luck this weekend!!!